Three-Point Stance: Ranking QBs, five-stars, realignment

Rivals national recruiting director Adam Gorney has thoughts on whether a quarterback should almost always be No. 1 in the rankings based on NFL Draft trends. He also shares five things he believes about five-star prospects and how he appreciates Oregon coach Dan Lanning’s blunt comments about Colorado leaving for the Big 12.

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From the time Peyton Manning was drafted No. 1 overall in 1998 to Bryce Young going first in 2023, quarterbacks have absolutely dominated the top pick in the NFL Draft. Considering that the Rivals rankings are based on expected college performance and draft status, this has been a question that I’ve really thought a lot about over the summer.

Should we almost always side with a quarterback being No. 1 in our rankings?

That is a timeline of 26 drafts and a quarterback has been taken first 19 times, including five of the last six drafts. If we would have moved Young ahead of Bryan Bresee in the 2020 rankings then we would have not only had the right position at No. 1 in two of the last three drafts (Young and Trevor Lawrence) but the absolute right player. That’s much harder than you might think.

In the only draft of the last six where a quarterback was not taken first, Travon Walker was the No. 1 overall pick and a quarterback wasn’t selected until No. 20 overall (Pitt’s Kenny Pickett) in a very down year at the position.

But in years where the quarterback spot is loaded - say in the class of 2024 with Georgia commit Dylan Raiola and Alabama pledge Julian Sayin leading the way - is it just safer and smarter to side with a quarterback because the NFL is going to take them earlier?

Ohio State wide receiver commit Jeremiah Smith might be the most dominant high school receiver since Julio Jones. Williams Nwaneri is incredible. Micah Hudson could be Garrett Wilson 2.0.

But I’m not so sure it’s sensible to move any of those players to No. 1 if there is an elite quarterback we love - and Raiola and Sayin are both phenomenal. Our five-star rankings try to mirror the first round of the NFL Draft, and NFL teams are taking quarterbacks No. 1.

In stocks, you’re not supposed to fight the Fed. In rankings, why fight the trend?

The Hollywood (Fla.) Chaminade Madonna standout visited Florida again before the dead period with QB commit D.J. Lagway and the two have hit it off, but I still think it’s going to be very challenging to flip him from Ohio State. If Buckeyes position coach Brian Hartline takes a head coaching job (and it’s at an elite school) then things could get really interesting, but I just don’t see Georgia happening. Maybe Florida State, maybe Florida, but the Buckeyes are still in very strong shape.

We’re going on about two months of when the rumors started in earnest that the five-star receiver was going to commit to Texas Tech - and it still hasn’t happened. The Red Raiders dodged a big bullet last weekend when Hudson showed up in Lubbock and didn’t head to Texas A&M, which is trying to charge up in his recruitment. I still think Texas Tech lands him and his decision to go there on the last weekend before the dead period was telling.

I have believed for a long time that Texas was eventually going to land the five-star defensive end from Duncanville, Texas. It’s closer to home and family, and the Longhorns have done a great job recruiting him. But in recent days I’m starting to backtrack on that idea since he just visited LSU and announced a commitment date, the same day as teammate Caden Durham. There have been dual announcements from teammates where they’ve gone to different schools, but LSU has been a player for both and now it has me thinking maybe the Tigers look strongest.

There is no doubt that the Buford, Ga., five-star safety has had phenomenal visits to Florida State and Auburn, but I still believe Georgia lands him. He plays now with Dylan Raiola, who has a deft touch on working him for the Bulldogs, but he’s also just been so comfortable after every trip to Athens - and there have been many. Absolutely, the Seminoles and the Tigers have blown Bolden away and given him a lot to consider, but if I had to take a shot it’s still Georgia for him.

Position coach Sterling Lucas came through huge again for the Gamecocks this time, helping in a big way to land the five-star defensive end who has incredible bend off the edge and has outstanding length to add to what should be a big-time defensive line. South Carolina has done really well recruiting and developing defensive linemen - and Stewart could be the next one. Lucas had a big hand in landing five-star Nyckoles Harbor last recruiting cycle, and now Lucas and the Gamecocks beat Ohio State (and renowned position coach Larry Johnson) for one of the best in 2024.

Oregon coach Dan Lanning was asked this week for his thoughts on the news of Colorado planning to leave the Pac-12 for the Big 12, and he made a blunt assessment: Something along the lines of, so what?

“Not a big reaction,” Lanning said. “I’m trying to remember what they won to affect this conference. I don’t remember. Do you remember them winning anything? I don’t remember them winning anything.”

Asked about the same thing, Oklahoma State coach Mike Gundy said he was “thrilled” to have Colorado join the Big 12 and that he plans to reach out to coach Deion Sanders. Gundy summed up conference realignment, the financial reality of college football and so much more with his next statement.

“We’re trying to market so you can get sales, so you can get ESPN and Fox to pay you money to play on TV,” Gundy said.

Lanning’s comments were true: Who really cares about Colorado? The Buffaloes have losing records in 15 of their last 16 seasons. But Gundy is also correct: Colorado is a decent-sized media market and Sanders brings a ton of marketability and excitement.

On Wednesday, Yahoo Sports columnist Dan Wetzel reported that the Big Ten has started preliminary talks about adding Oregon, Washington, Cal and Stanford. The Pac-12 is working on some kind of tenuous TV streaming deal with Apple, but it sounds less than firm and less than ideal.

On top of all this, Lanning and all the Pac-12 coaches are in a situation where their conference could be disintegrating around them - or at least very seriously changed in the coming years, especially with USC and UCLA already leaving for the Big Ten - and there are recruiting implications and all kinds of other considerations.

Conference realignment pressure and angst is 100 percent real. Colorado leaving the Pac-12 really doesn’t matter … everything else does. But Oregon might be the next one out the door. Who knows?

Asked about the potential Apple deal with the Pac-12, radio host Paul Finebaum said on ESPN: “Someone needs to shovel dirt on this league and end this charade. It’s over for the Pac-12.”

Years from now, Finebaum might be eating those words. Or he could be 100 percent right - and the timeline seems to be picking up fast.