Rivals national analyst Ryan Wright along with national analyst Clint Cosgrove, Kelly Quinlan of BullsInsider.com and Bryan Matthews of AuburnSports.com tackle three topics and determine whether they believe each statement is FACT or FICTION.
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MORE FACT OR FICTION: Northwestern commit Mason Robinson will flip to Penn State
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1. Looking at the Heisman finalists, is college football in a downturn?
Wright’s take: FACT. After talking to different Heisman voters, they each seemed confused on where to cast their ballot this season. The finalists, for the most part, aligned with the College Football Playoff picture: Georgia’s Stetson Bennett, TCU’s Max Duggan and Ohio State’s CJ Stroud with USC’s Caleb Williams being the outlier. Looking at the finalists, are any of the four really the best in the game or is college football in a downturn?
Stroud didn’t lead his conference in passing nor did Williams or Bennett. Duggan led the Big 12 in passing yards but was behind his co-Heisman finalists and 15 positions behind the overall leader Michael Penix Jr. (Washington). Only one in the mix can say he was the best in his conference, and even he can’t say he was better than his peers numbers to numbers.
The season itself was fantastic thanks to TCU’s breakout performance, Georgia running the table again on the backs of a defense that reloaded, the return of USC, Tennessee's reemergence on the national stage, and the drama in the Big Ten between Michigan and Ohio State. But, not since 2006, when voters snubbed sophomore tailback Darren McFadden for Ohio State QB Troy Smith has the Heisman race been less interesting.
Cosgroves’ take: FICTION. I believe the quality of play in college football is at an all-time high, and while one of the Heisman finalists was a two-star recruit in Stetson Bennett, he plays for the best team in the nation.
The remaining finalists were all highly rated recruits coming out of high school with Caleb Williams leading the way as a five-star followed by CJ Stroud and Max Duggan who were both four-star recruits. Bennett wasn't forced to put up huge stats because of his surrounding cast. The one-time two-star has turned into a likely draft pick. Williams and Stroud led the nation in passing touchdowns and will both be NFL Draft picks. Duggan may not be considered a future draft pick but he is the heart and soul of TCU and led the Frogs to the playoff.
While the group of Heisman finalists may not have a first-round draft grade as a whole, they embody what makes college football great and the sport is better for each of their contributions. I believe there is more talent than ever at the college level and the Heisman finalists are just one small portion of that talent pool.
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2. Will Alex Golesh be a successful recruiter at USF?
Wright’s take: FACT. Between his offensive successes as coordinator at UCF and Tennessee, prospects in the Southeast should respond to Alex Golesh instantly. Putting points on the board brings smiles to recruits’ faces and after he led a Volunteers offense that averaged a nation-best 47.3 points per game, those pearly whites will be shining back at the Bulls new head coach.
Drilling down on the verbiage of “successful recruiter,” that can come in the form of Rivals’ team rankings and/or finding the right players to help put wins on the board. Collecting talent from the high school ranks and transfer portal, Golesh should outperform the three-year win total (4) of his predecessor in quick fashion.
Quinlan’s take: FACT. I think Golesh has a tremendous work ethic and recruits like him and that is half the battle. The big thing for Golesh and his staff will be getting kids on campus and to games again. That was not a strength of the last two versions of USF football all the time. They have to recruit both for the current two classes and also keep in mind the transfer portal and recruit kids who won't commit to USF this time around but are leaving the state and will end up transferring later. The better portal kids added by Jeff Scott came via Midwestern programs with homesick kids. Golesh and his staff need to hit the pavement hard though because not everyone on the old USF staff did their best with that.
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3. Can Auburn land a top 20 recruiting class?
Wright’s take: FICTION. With a little bit of effort, history shows Auburn can easily land a top-20 class, and it could happen again in this cycle. But Hugh Freeze’s ability to recruit will remain in question until he completes a couple of classes. One thing going against him in his return to the SEC is negative recruiting, and there is a lot for opposing coaches to latch onto.
Something that could push Auburn’s class into the top-20 is keeping Cadillac Williams on board. Recruits love Williams. During the transition from Bryan Harsin to Freeze, the interim staff did a fantastic job getting top recruits in the 2023 and 2024 classes on campus. Everything is set for success, the question will be are players committing to Auburn for Williams or Freeze. The additional factor, how much NIL money is funneling in to help sway players to The Plains?
Matthew’s take: FACT. Hugh Freeze built his resume on high-powered offenses and the ability to land blue chip recruits. Auburn currently ranks 48th in the country and 12th in the SEC in the team recruiting rankings but that's with only 11 commits, giving Freeze and his staff a lot of room to add to the class and perhaps double it before the Early Signing Period opens on Dec. 21. The top 20 will take a lot of work but AU is already 18th in average star so filling out the rest of the class with comparable or better players should put it comfortably within the top 20 or perhaps later.
The Tigers remain heavily involved with some of the country's top uncommitted prospects such as Rivals100 teammates Qua Russaw and James Smith, and remain in contact with some high-profile prospects committed to other schools including Tony Mitchell, Keldric Faulk, D.J. Chester, Kyin Lee, Lewis Carter, Jelani Thurman, Johnathan Hughley and Joshua Horton.
