Rivals national recruiting analyst John Garcia Jr. was in the Atlanta area checking in on top high school football prospects this week. So, as he pivots back to college football for this edition of Fact or Fiction, Garcia and Jed May from UGASports.com kick things off in the Peach State and a topic relating to the defending national champs. Garcia also addresses Georgia Tech and neighboring Alabama, with help from Kelly Quinlan from JacketsOnline.com and Brandon Howard from TideIllustrated.com.
FACT OR FICTION: Texas A&M is a real threat to land five-star WR Micah Hudson | Penn State's class is underrated | FSU had the best recruiting month of any ACC team
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CLASS OF 2023 RANKINGS: Rivals250 | Team | Position | State
CLASS OF 2024 RANKINGS: Rivals250 | Team | Position | State
CLASS OF 2025 RANKINGS: Rivals250 | Team | Position | State
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1. Georgia will sign more than five five-star prospects in the 2024 class.
Jed May: FACT. Georgia already has a trio of five-stars committed in Dylan Raiola, Justin Williams and Peyton Woodyard. The Bulldogs are also major contenders for Williams Nwaneri, KJ Bolden and Ryan Wingo. Any two of those uncommitted targets would push the Bulldogs to five five-star commits. As a bonus, Bulldog commits Ellis Robinson and Ny Carr are in good position to ascend to five-star status by the final Rivals rankings update. With all that, it appears five is a very realistic number of five-stars for the Bulldogs to land in this class.
Garcia: FACT. Getting May's answer pushed me over the number, especially when considering the expansion of the Rivals rankings toward the full number of five-stars. It's not always set to be at 32 overall, but the NFL Draft is always the tool used at the end of the day and that first-round number becomes more likely as time rolls on. So, UGA might be able to land a few in the coming weeks while long-term commitments like Robinson, in particular, fight to earn the fifth star during or after their senior campaign. Raiola and Williams aren't going anywhere in the class, and at least one other pledge could gain five-star consideration, so it would almost project as an upset should the Bulldogs miss the five-man five-star mark.
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2. Georgia Tech will sign a top 25 class in Brent Key's first cycle.
Quinlan: FACT. Going into May I would’ve said fiction, but the Jackets have a lot of momentum on the recruiting trail, and the last coach hired on the staff just before spring ball, Ricky Brumfield, is one of the key people who has swung my thinking on this. Brumfield’s work in Louisiana recruiting has been impressive. He landed four-star receiver Koby Young, three-star safety Christian Pritchett and linebacker Tah’j Butler, who I think could end up with a fourth star before this cycle ends. Young, along with the surprise commitment of Rivals 250 defensive end Christopher Jackson in June and the addition of four-star corner Troy Stevenson this month, show how well Key and his staff are doing overall with four-star players from three different states. If the Jackets can win in the ACC this year and get to a bowl game that will add a flip or two later or a big-name Rivals100 kid in the back end of the cycle that could bolster the class. I think they will finish in the top 30 and if they perform well on the field this fall that could push Georgia Tech and Key’s first class into the top 25.
Garcia: FICTION. After the commitment of Jameson Riggs, the Jackets were up to No. 24 in the Rivals team rankings with 24 total commitments. That's already a hefty number of pledges, even with the expected turnover on the Flats going into the 2023 season. No ACC program has more pledges to date, though some programs currently ranked behind GT in the conference – like Pitt or Duke – could potentially close the gap if they land a four-star or two en route to completing their haul. For the Jackets to stay in the top 25, it would have to hold off all of the following teams outside of the conference currently ranked behind them in late July: Ole Miss, Auburn, South Carolina, UCF, Kentucky, Michigan State, Washington, TCU, Utah, Colorado, etc. Any of those programs can either get hot on the field or on the trail between now and December and challenge Tech for a top 25 spot. It's just a numbers game at that point.
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3. Alabama will land multiple five-star recruits in the 2024 cycle.
Howard: FACT. Right now Alabama has one five-star player in its class, quarterback Julian Sayin. Additionally, the Tide are still fairly involved with several five-star prospects, including KJ Bolden, Ellis Robinson III, Edderick Houston, Colin Simmons and Peyton Woodyard. A few other players Alabama is involved with (Jordan Seaton, Jaylen Mbakwe, Kobe Black) have a genuine opportunity to make a five-star leap based on how they stand out this season and as the Rivals rankings expand. Never count out Nick Saban, but the ‘23 class was one for the ages, which may have affected some of the decisions in this group. The Tide will aim high and should finish in the top five, but this year their five-star haul may not be as heavy.
Garcia: FACT. Never bet against Alabama, on the field and especially on the recruiting trail. As Howard said, the 2023 class was a runaway No. 1 overall group that won't be matched in 2024, but that doesn't mean the class won't have star power. The number of five-stars will expand and UA will be able to pair Sayin with at least one or two additional class headliners. The last time UA signed fewer than four five-stars was the 2019 cycle, and the last time it signed less than three was the year prior. Plenty of uncommitted elites will have Bama hats on the table and current commitments Mbakwe, Perry Thompson, Zabien Brown and Jeremiah Beaman are each in the Rivals100, meaning they have a puncher's chance to ascend to five-star status by January.
