Staying on the theme of a mid-summer check-in, which Rivals has done for every Power Five conference this week, Fact or Fiction shifts toward the top of the recruiting rankings. Georgia is atop the list right now, but it has plenty of competition. So, who may finish No. 1 overall?
Blayne Gilmer from UGASports.com, Jeremy Birmingham from DottingtheEyes.com and Jason Higdon from FirstandTenFlorida.com join national analyst John Garcia Jr. to break down some of the top contenders.
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1. Georgia will hold off all contenders for the No. 1 recruiting class of 2024.
Garcia Jr.: FACT. Georgia has secured its offensive line group most recently, and now it has its sights set on the defense with KJ Bolden, Williams Nwanery and certainly Justin Williams all very much in the crosshairs – with each expected to make a decision sometime soon. The gap that will create may push the conversation more toward challenging 2022 Texas A&M than wondering if Ohio State, Florida or anyone else can catch the Bulldogs in the 2024 cycle. The scary part is that programs like Georgia often have a chance to pile on elites late in the game as the season, transfer portal and coaching carousel create decommitments elsewhere.
Gilmer: FACT. Georgia has a strong core in this that has led to an early lead in the rankings. The Bulldogs have an opportunity to add multiple five-stars within the next month as they are finalists for Williams, Bolden and Nwaneri. Nate Frazier could also very likely end up in Georgia’s class. The Dawgs will finish strong and secure the No. 1 class in 2024.
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2. Ohio State will vault Georgia for the top recruiting class.
Garcia's take: FICTION. This one feels close. The numbers game of course plays a major part in the team recruiting rankings. That, along with Georgia's ceiling for more five-star recruits, won't be an easy hill to climb, but Ohio State does have some head-to-head battles still in play against the Bulldogs for at least a pair of Peach State elites in KJ Bolden and Eddrick Houston. Dylan Stewart, another five-star, has both programs among his top schools, with a commitment potentially coming down the pike sooner rather than later. Ohio State already has Georgia edged in the quality-per-pledge aspect, but stacking some head-to-head wins over Georgia while holding on to the likes of No. 1 wide receiver Jeremiah Smith could make this race that much more interesting into the fall. The season playing out will then have its own impact on some of the final signatures coming for either program late in the game.
Birmingham's take: FACT. Rivals only takes into consideration the top 20 players in any given program’s recruiting class and right now the Buckeyes have the country’s best recruiting class according to per-player-average metrics. While Ohio State still trails Georgia in the national rankings by a significant margin because the Bulldogs have eight more players in their class, that will tighten up as the Buckeyes add to their class from here. There are a number of top-of-the-board players still on the market and Ohio State is in great position to land at least three more five-star players. Ohio State has finished second in the rankings a handful of times in the last 20 years but hasn’t been able to get over the SEC hump. This could be the year it happens.
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3. Florida will overtake Georgia in the SEC and finish with the top class in the country.
Garcia's take: FICTION. Florida has a few head-to-head wins to its name in this cycle thus far, but more would become necessary in order for the Gators to vault to No. 1. Jeremiah Smith, whom Georgia is trying to flip from Ohio State, would be a heck of a start and recent intel suggests it's Florida that is likely the program currently in best position to change the five-star's mind should something happen with his Ohio State status (over Georgia, Miami, etc.). Florida is likely to add some secondary pieces to its mix in the coming weeks, too, so the volume could creep up on Georgia before all is said and done – though it feels like Kirby Smart's class can hold more bodies than Florida at the moment. A great on-field product in 2023 could be the game-changer for any late shifts toward Florida for the class of 2024, especially if the Gators were to upset Georgia in the process, though most of those scenarios seem unlikely at this stage of the game.
Higdon's take: FICTION. Billy Napier and the Florida Gators have steadily climbed up the recruiting rankings over the last six weeks and will continue to do so. I submitted a FutureCast for four-star defensive tackle D’Antre Robinson, who has a scheduled announcement for July 20, which would move the Gators closer to that No. 1 position. For now, though, I don’t think the Gators will close with the nation's top class unless they flip five-star Smith. However, there is another big-time commitment, this one within the SEC, that I believe the Gators will flip and that will help their ranking.
