WEEK 10 PREVIEW: WRs | RBs | QBs | Defenses
A huge weekend of college football is ahead of us. Here is a look at some storylines from a college fantasy football perspective:
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SEC EAST SHOWDOWN
Essentially, the SEC East championship game will be played Saturday between Georgia and Kentucky as the winner wraps up the division and there are certainly some interesting things happening with the betting lines this week.
Sixty-five percent of bets so far have gone on Georgia yet the line continues to drop from minus-10 to minus-9 which tells me there are some big wagers on Kentucky covering that number. The Wildcats are tied with Clemson for No. 1 nationally in scoring defense at 13 points per game. Georgia is No. 12 at 16.4 per outing.
There is a decent chance the Bulldogs go to Lexington and hammer Kentucky, which is not exactly a scoring machine and needed a late rally to slip by Missouri last weekend. In three games in October, Kentucky never scored more than 15 points against Texas A&M, Vanderbilt and Missouri.
From a fantasy perspective, only the two defenses should be considered. The over/under is sitting at 44 points so it should be a low-scoring slog and by the way the number is moving there’s a decent possibility Georgia is walking into a buzzsaw.
BATON ROUGE BLOWOUT?
According to numerous reports, Alabama’s 14.5-point spread over LSU is the largest for two teams ranked in the top four in decades – and more than half of all bets are coming in on the Crimson Tide as the line at some places is creeping up to 15.
Alabama has obliterated every team in its path this season although it’s also important to note the Crimson Tide have not exactly played an incredibly challenging schedule up to this point. Does star quarterback Tua Tagovailoa fold in what will be a ludicrous environment in Baton Rouge? Doubtful. Does the Crimson Tide offense and all their weapons get stopped all night? Doubtful.
The line is large but it feels as if Vegas is begging people to buy in on the home underdog. That makes me think Alabama rolls huge on Saturday night and fantasy owners of Tagovailoa, running back Josh Jacobs, receiver Jerry Jeudy and the Crimson Tide defense are awarded handsomely.
BIG TEN SHOOTOUT?
Ohio State has not played a game since getting blown off the field at Purdue two weekends ago. Nebraska is coming off back-to-back wins over Minnesota and Bethune-Cookman after starting the season 0-6. The Huskers have scored 53 and 45 points the last two weekends.
This is all shaping up to be a possible scorefest between the Buckeyes and Huskers on Saturday as the over/under line opened at 71 points and has already climbed to 73 at some shops.
It’s looking good for not only Ohio State quarterback Dwayne Haskins, the Buckeyes’ running backs and their army of receivers to put up points – and get back to their winning ways after losing at Purdue – but Nebraska should put up points as well. Receiver JD Spielman is the top target in the Huskers’ offense and he’s ninth in scoring among fantasy receivers even though he’s owned in only 67 percent of leagues.
FUN IN LUBBOCK
I don’t think anyone is expecting a recreation of the 2016 shootout between Oklahoma and Texas Tech – and quarterbacks Baker Mayfield and Patrick Mahomes – where the Sooners won 66-59 and there was more than 1,700 yards of total offense. But there could be a whole bunch of points scored when the two meet Saturday night in Lubbock.
Oklahoma QB Kyler Murray is the top overall scorer in fantasy leagues. Texas Tech’s Alan Bowman has also been putting up nice numbers and he could be a steal for this weekend as he’s owned in only 18 percent of leagues. Both Big 12 schools have receivers putting up huge fantasy points.
The over/under line is super high at 78 points. But do you want to bet against it? That’s great news for fantasy owners on either team since lots of points are expected.
BELIEVE IN USC
I can’t believe I’m writing this but USC should score a lot of points this weekend and putting some of their better offensive players in your fantasy lineup does make sense.
Coach Clay Helton stripped offensive coordinator Tee Martin of play-calling duties this week and he fired offensive line coach Neil Callaway. Quarterback JT Daniels is expected to play after being in concussion protocol. And the Trojans are coming off back-to-back losses to Utah and Arizona State. Despite positive comments from athletics director Lynn Swann this week, Helton could be on the hot seat.
But Oregon State’s defense is so bad. The Beavers are giving up 45.6 points per game, they’ve allowed 21 rushing scores and 24 passing TDs and USC is still loaded with high four- and five-star prospects. The Trojans’ backs are against the wall and I think they come out swinging this weekend.
