Over/under win totals: Sizing up the Big Ten

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This week’s series examining the over-under win totals for every Power Five team comes to a close with the Big Ten, which has grabbed its share of offseason headlines. Those days are drawing to a close, however, as the season nears. Our Rob Cassidy, who went 8-6 picking the league a year ago, will try to match or improve on that mark this year. Below are his over-under picks for every program in this year’s Big Ten.

RELATED: Cassidy's Big Ten picks from 2017

The win total: 3.5

The pick: Under (-135)

This could be Lovie Smith’s swan song in Champaign, so don’t underestimate the chances of a rocky start snowballing into a full-fledged disaster. The Illini have some young talent in spots but will be underdogs in most games. The fact that the defense returns seven starters isn’t exactly a great thing when you consider how last season went. Smith has won just five games in two seasons as the program’s head coach, so asking him to nearly match that total this season seems like a lot when you consider the Illini didn’t win a single conference game last year.

The win total: 5

The pick: Under (-120)

Indiana lost most of its defensive starters from a team that finished 5-7, but also nearly pulled off a couple additional victories. Sophomore Peyton Ramsey, who played in eight games last season, will start at quarterback for the Hoosiers. They may be a victim of the schedule this year, as they’ll be forced to play all of the league’s heavy hitters. What happens in the Hoosiers’ week-two game against Virginia will be massive for this wager. I’m going with the under, as a five-win push seems like the best-case scenario.

The win total: 7.5

The pick: Over (-110)

This is a difficult one that I can admittedly see going either way. Iowa doesn’t go on the road until its fifth game, which is significant. The Hawkeyes could conceivably start 5-1 and a couple of the toss-up games late in the season (Northwestern and Nebraska) will take place in Iowa City. The Hawkeyes return quarterback Nathan Stanley, and they seem to have a knack for stealing a game they aren’t supposed to steal. Take the over here, but maybe don’t bet your house.

The win total: 5

The pick: Under (+110)

Maryland's offseason mess is ongoing. It seems unlikely that DJ Durkin, who remains suspended amid a player mistreatment scandal, will be around to start the year and I’m not sure the roster has the talent to overcome such a rocky preseason camp. The Terrapins got some help on the transfer front and should see an influx of talent, but you could see this team struggling with any number of things. The +110 odds make it more attractive to take a flyer on the under. Maryland will have a decent run game, but questions marks seem to permeate throughout the rest of the program. Point is, the over sits at -140, and nobody should pay that much for the right to bet on a team without coach.

The win total: 8.5

The pick: Under (+170)

The Michigan offense is now in the hands of Ole Miss transfer Shea Patterson, a touted quarterback that will be expected to lead the Wolverines to a nine- or 10-win season in his first year at the school. The defense will again be stout, but Patterson and the offense may experience some growing pains, particularly early in the year. A schedule that includes games against Notre Dame, Penn State, Michigan State, Wisconsin and Ohio State combined with a +170 price tag makes the under attractive.

The win total: 8

The pick: Over (-220)

Michigan State hit the over last year and will have every opportunity to do so again this season, as the nine-win mark seems reachable. With a little luck in Tempe during week two, the Spartans could be 5-0 headed into an Oct. 13 road game with Penn State. Quarterback Brian Lewerke is back, as is running back LJ Scott. At -220, the price tag is steep, but I don’t see any way Michigan State finishes 7-5 with its talent and schedule. The over is the play, because a push seems like the worst case.

The win total: 6

The pick: Under (-120)

Minnesota will start a freshman walk-on at quarterback, and there could be pitfalls that go along with such a choice. It also could go better than you’d expect, however, as the team returns a good chunk of its roster. Running back Rodney Smith will be the focal point of an offense that will probably struggle at times, but the defense will make the difference here. The Gophers will have to improve on the 22.8 points per game they gave up in 2017 to be bowl eligible, and there isn’t a long list of reasons to think that’s going to happen.

The win total: 6.5

The pick: Over (-175)

Scott Frost’s first gig as a head coach saw him take an 0-12 UCF team to 6-6 in his first year before going 14-0 in year No. 2, so he’s earned the benefit of the doubt when it comes to improving a program in hurry. Frost’s high-powered, fast-paced offense will be an outlier in the Big Ten. And while the new Nebraska coach will be charged with the task of breaking in a new quarterback, he will be armed with a veteran defense that returns a number of starters. Even at -175, I like the value here because betting against Frost isn’t something I’m ever interested in doing.

The win total: 6

The pick: Over (-120)

I’m a believer in Pat Fitzgerald and maybe that blinds me, but I hit on the Wildcats’ over last year and we’ll try to do so again now. Northwestern lost its all-time leading rusher in Justin Jackson but returns quarterback Clayton Thorson. Still, if Northwestern is going to return to a bowl game, it will do so on the back of its defense, which returns most of its starters. A year ago, the Wildcats ranked seventh in the conference in points allowed and have the experience to improve on that mark. A season-opening road game against rapidly improving Purdue will be huge for this bet, as a win could lead to a 3-0 start.

The win total: 10

The pick: Push

There’s no way of telling how Urban Meyer’s suspension will impact the Buckeyes, who have the talent to win the national title. TCU fans will tell you that it plays in the Horned Frogs’ favor for the teams’ Sept. 15 meeting in Texas, but that game remains a wildcard of sorts. Heisman candidate J.K. Dobbins, along Mike Weber, give the Buckeyes an incredible one-two punch in the backfield, and there’s significant talent (both new and old) on defense. Still, the schedule is challenging. A loss to TCU would make the over incredibly difficult to hit. Even if Ohio State bests the Frogs in Arlington, 11 wins is a difficult bar to reach. I hit the under on the Buckeyes a year ago, but let’s go with a push in 2018. This roster is too talented to bet against.

The win total: 9.5

The pick: over (-115)

A lot will be made of the absence of running back Saquon Barkley, but Penn State’s talented offensive line will help ease the transition. Trace McSorley is back at quarterback and should take yet another step forward this season. It’s the defense that will determine how this bet swings, as the Nittany Lions are replacing a long list of starters. I’ll ride with the over because of the offense and a schedule that gifts Penn State, which should start 4-0, home games with Ohio State and Michigan State.

The win total: 6

The pick: PUSH

Let’s get to the point here. I know a push is a copout. I think Purdue is going to struggle on defense. In fact, I think the unit will be a total disaster. But, at the same time, I’m not sure I’m ready to bet against Jeff Brohm. I’ll happily take the chicken exit.

The win total: 4

The pick: Under (+110)

There’s a preseason credit card fraud scandal brewing at Rutgers. Ask Florida how that went last season. Logically, the two things are obviously unrelated, but the Scarlet Knights aren’t in a place where they can afford to suspend players while hoping to eek out wins with a relatively shallow talent pool. Rutgers, which finished 4-8 a year ago, is not the sort of team that can withstand bad breaks.

The win total: 9.5

The pick: Under (-130)

There’s a weak non-conference schedule and a Heisman contender at running back. But the defense is young, while Badgers quarterback Alex Hornibrook was prone to lapses last year and has one returning wideout suspended indefinitely and another serving a two-game suspension. Wisconsin is one of the league’s most talented teams, but if the defense struggles and the offense is forced to be one-dimensional in tough games, 10 wins is a lofty goal. To me, 9-3 seems more likely than 10-2 and the odds (-130) agree with that assessment. The under it is.