MORE CONFERENCE OVER/UNDERS: SEC | Big 12

Day No. 3 of our series examining every team’s win total over-under center around the ACC, where the picks were mediocre by definition a year ago. A 6-6-2 record is nothing to write home about, after all. This year, we try to improve the result in a league that saw just one coaching change this offseason. Below are this year’s over-under picks for every ACC program. All lines and odds were provided by the offshore website Betus.com.

RELATED: Cassidy's ACC over/under picks from last season

The win total: 6

The pick: PUSH

Boston College should be improved once again on offense, as running back AJ Dillon is one of the league’s top players. Defensive-minded Steve Addazio is one of the easiest coaches in the country to root for. And while that won’t help the Eagles win seven games, a handful of returning starters and a schedule that could lead to a 4-1 start certainly will. If the Eagles can grab a win at Wake Forest early in the season, things could set up nicely a team that many outside the region have undervalued. The fact that the over is -180 gives me pause, so I’ve gone with a copout in the form of picking “push.”

The win total: 10.5 (+160)

The pick: Under

Clemson is the best team in the ACC and appears two have two impressive quarterbacks in the fold. That said, Dabo Swinney intending to play both of them early in the season makes me nervous when the line allows for just one loss. The schedule is soft, but road games in incredibly hostile environments such as Florida State and Texas A&M have potential to get weird. This pick is as much about the value at +160 as anything else. Clemson should be favored in every game, but the Tigers and their incredibly talented defensive front aren’t immune to upsets. If things were equal on the odds front, I’d choose the over, as I deleted this paragraph and changed my pick three times.

The win total: 6.5

The pick: Under (-115)

Duke’s tough road schedule is made tougher by a game at quickly improving Northwestern. So while David Cutcliffe is a fantastic coach, it’s hard to find seven wins on this slate. The Blue Devils will have to pull off a couple upsets to flirt with such a number and they play at Miami and Clemson in the month of November. I feel pretty confident taking the under here. The good news is that basketball season is on its way.

The win total: 8

The pick: Under (-150)

Willie Taggart improved Oregon’s record by three games in his first season but saw USF’s win total decline by one in his first season there. None of that has a ton to do with Florida State, but does outline just how difficult it is to right a ship. If FSU is to hit the over this fall, Taggart will need to improve FSU by three victories. The Seminoles have a stacked runnign back stable, but no starting quarterback has been named just yet. The defense is the real question mark here. There are a lot of moving parts when it comes to FSU in 2018. Assuming Jimbo Fisher was the bulk of the problem last season seems at least a little misguided and makes me want to stay away from the over.

The win total: 5.5

The pick: Over (-175)

Georgia Tech didn’t wow anyone with last year’s 5-6, finish but it did manage to show flashes. Quarterback TaQuon Marshall seemed comfortable in the offense and has plenty of experience around him in 2018. Tech and its triple-option have proven difficult to prepare for at times, so pulling an upset in a home games against Miami, or even Clemson, can’t be taken completely off the table. The over comes with steep price tag, but we support weird gimmick offenses in this space, so we’ll ride with the Jackets. Tech has more talent on its roster than people give it credit for.

The win total: 7

The pick: Under (-115)

Well, the Cardinals play Alabama out of the gate, which isn’t likely to go well. Quarterback Jawon Pass is a talented player that worked through serious consistency issues in high school, so getting him used to the college game may take some time. When you consider all the program lost following last year’s up-and-down 8-5 campaign (8-4 in the regular season), it’s hard to imagine another eight-win regular season.

The win total: 8.5

The pick: Over (-210)

Miami needs more from its quarterback, a position which may hold the team back again this season. But if you are -- as I am -- expecting LSU to be down, then the Hurricanes could be 5-0 headed into a home game against Florida State. The schedule isn’t exactly a Murderer’s Row of opponents, so give me a talented Hurricanes defense and what should be a decent-enough offense. Taking a -210 here seems insane to me, but I like it more than taking the under, so here we are. Making a pick for every team is a cruel exercise.

The win total: 5.5

The pick: under (+110)

Shoe-suspension issues aside, the Tar Heels don’t return many offensive starters. Then again, losing a few pieces of a 3-9 team might actually be a good thing. UNC doesn’t have anything resembling an established name at quarterback and is coming off a season that saw it allow 31.3 points per game, the second highest number in the ACC. I can find almost nothing that makes me think Larry Fedora’s program will be bowl eligible in 2018.

The win total: 7.5

The pick: Over (+120)

Quarterback Ryan Finley ranks fifth in school history in total offense and is one of country’s best players that few discuss. NC State's offense should be more than fine under his leadership. The issue, as was the case going into last season, will be the defense. A year ago, the Wolfpack defense got the job done on most occasions. And while a lot of the 2017 unit is gone, there’s a decent chance last year’s improvement wasn’t a one-year wonder. The front of the schedule is loaded with home games, so play the over and hope the defense doesn’t take a sizeable step in the wrong direction.

The win total: 5.5

The pick: Over (-110)

Kenny Pickett, who will start at quarterback for Pittsburgh, has apparently been extremely sharp during camp, which is a godsend because the Panthers have had their issues at the position in the recent past. Combine that with the fact that he was impressive in knocking off Miami at the end of last year, and there’s reason for cautious optimism. Head coach Pat Narduzzi will be focused on getting more consistency out of his defense, but his long-term track record suggests he should be able to do so. I like the Panthers to go bowling.

The win total: 5.5

The pick: Under (even)

Saying Syracuse had a tough time defensively last year is a bit of an understatement, but the Orange do have dynamic quarterback Eric Dungey on the roster and that works in their favor. But even if Dungey is healthy and clicking, all season, there aren’t many reasons to think the defense will be miraculously cured. The under is attractive as an even-money play.

The win total: 5

The pick: Push

Virginia’s incredible improvement from a 2-10 finish in head coach Bronco Mendenhall’s first year to a six-win campaign a season ago was impressive, but building on that is going to another level of difficult. Gone is star defensive back Quin Blanding, along with a number of other key defensive pieces. The Cavilers will likely start junior college transfer Bryce Perkins, a quarterback that had an incredible high school career before seeing his college path derailed by injury. Now healthy, the presumptive Wahoos’ starter is a wildcard of sorts. A return to 2-10 seems totally unlikely but so too does another bowl appearance. The even win total provides a chance at a copout, and I’ll take it. Push it is.

The win total: 8 (-140)

The pick: Over

Virginia Tech is a touchdown underdog in its season-opener against Florida State, but I see that as a winnable game for the Hokies. Justin Fuente has won 19 games in his first two seasons as the program’s head coach, and while quarterback Josh Jackson was a mixed bag last season and should take a step forward in 2018. Tech has dealt with some unexpected attrition this offseason but it isn’t short on talent along the defensive front. The over is the play, even at -140.

The win total: 6.5

The pick: Under (-125)

Wake Forest’s defense was shaky a season ago and now the program is attempting to solve a vacancy at quarterback, where Jamie Newman and Sam Hartman are battling for reps while presumptive starter Kendall Hilton serves a three-game suspension. The Demon Deacons seem to be on solid footing under Dave Clawson, but there are a lot of question marks surrounding this year’s team, even if promising young wide receiver Greg Dortch continues to progress. Seven victories seem like a lot for a squad that doesn’t have as much talent as the top half of the league and has an unsettled quarterback situation for the first quarter of the season.