Over/under win totals: Sizing up the SEC

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The season is approaching, and Rivals.com’s Rob Cassidy is back with a look at every Power Five team's win-total over/under in the country. This year, we begin this series with the SEC, which produced last season’s national champion and also yielded a solid result for Cassidy, who went 7-4-2 on his picks for the conference. (There was no line available for Ole Miss at the time of publication last season.)

As was the case last year, every SEC win total was taken from the offshore gambling site BetUs.com. The lines, along with Cassidy’s pick, can be found below.

RELATED: Cassidy's over/under picks prior to last season

The win total: 10.5
The pick: Over (-220)

I could make a case for picking the under here because The Tide lost plenty of last year’s championship team and have a massive quarterback controversy on their hands, but Alabama hasn’t lost two regular season games since 2010. Not to mention the level of stupidity one feels when betting against Nick Saban, and losing is every bit as much of a gut-punch as the loss itself. Don’t overthink this. Peace of mind is worth -220.

The win total: 6
The pick: Under (-120)

Arkansas won four games last year, and I’m not totally convinced the personnel on this year’s team is improved. That leaves me to wonder if a change of coaching staff is worth three additional wins, and I don’t think it is. This is a team that desperately needs to improve its defense and I don’t think the problem has been adequately addressed just yet, even if defensive coordinator John Chavis is ultimately the right guy for the job. Six is a good number here, even when you consider the program’s favorable home schedule, and I expect it to be close, but at -120, betting on the Razorbacks to watch bowl season from home for the second straight year seems like a decent play when you’re being forced to pick a side for every Power Five team in the country.

The win total: 8.5
The pick: Over (-150)

Auburn does not play in an opponent’s stadium until Oct. 6, when it travels to Mississippi State to take on a Bulldogs program that will be under new leadership. The Tigers’ defensive line, combined with the potential of quarterback Jarrett Stidham, makes the over mighty tempting here, even if there are games against Alabama, Georgia and Washington on the schedule. Take the over (even at -150), as four regular-season losses would be considered a total disaster for this team. Ten wins seem much more likely than eight.

The win total: 7.5
The pick: Under (+155)

Preseason Florida remains the best Florida. Last year it was credit card fraud. This year, it’s shady local gamblers with shady local-gambler nicknames. The Gators’ offense was a disaster a season ago, and Dan Mullen was brought in to fix that. Finding something resembling an effective quarterback would help Mullen’s quest, and the new Gators coach has a track record that suggests he may be able to do just that. That said, an 8-4 season is a lot to ask for a team that won just three SEC games a year ago. Florida may well start 5-0 and will likely need to do so if it wants any shot of going 8-4. This is a difficult call, but the under is +155. Let’s take the value because nothing seems to be going right in Gainesville lately.

The win total: 10.5
The pick: Under (-115)

I hit the over on Georgia last year, so let’s see if we can hit the under in 2018. Georgia will be one of the better teams in the country, but 10.5 wins is a lot for anyone not named Saban. An early-season trip to South Carolina could get scarier than any Georgia fan wants to admit, and a late-season game against Auburn is a potential pitfall. Georgia’s offense isn’t likely to be a problem. There are still plenty of weapons for quarterback Jake Fromm. The defense, on the other hand, will have something to prove, as most of last year’s unit is gone. This is admittedly a scary bet, as that 10.5 number seems spot on, but there are no pushes when decimal points are involved.

The win total: 5.5
The pick: Over (-115)

Kentucky finished last season with an uninspiring 2-5 stretch, but the program managed to show flashes in the process of a solid season. Benny Snell is a certified star in the backfield, but the star power doesn’t extend much beyond him. Non-conference tilts with Central Michigan and Louisville are interesting, as you can see them going either way. The Wildcats will likely be as good as its experienced offensive line allows them to be. Take the over here, but maybe don’t bet your house … or your car … or anything worth more than, say, a fancy waffle maker.

The win total: 6.5
The pick: Under (+165)

LSU, which may or may not have an effective quarterback on its roster, could conceivably lose to Miami in a neutral-site opener, and things could get hyper-messy from there. The Tigers will have a new face at running back to go along with their new (undetermined) name at quarterback. Offensive coordinator Steve Ensminger will be in his first full season as well. LSU stumbling to 6-6 is no sure thing, but there are enough moving parts and potential for disaster to justify the bet at +165. Saying LSU will underachieve is a trendy talking point, which makes me illogically worry that it won’t happen. But the value is too good to pass up.

The win total: 8.5
The pick: Under (-115)

First-year head coach Joe Moorhead inherits one of the league’s most naturally talented quarterbacks in Nick Fitzgerald and a good chunk of an offense that helped the Bulldogs win nine games last season under Dan Mullen. That said, the fact that Moorhead has never been an FBS head coach and the fact that Fitzgerald will need to improve his passing numbers in order for Mississippi State to find real success in 2018 creates enough “ifs” to make the under attractive. An early-season road game against Kansas State might be a more difficult test than some think. Should Moorhead and company drop that one, things will get dicey, and a nine-win season is asking a lot of a first-year coach in Starkville.

The win total 7.5
The pick: Over +120

I picked the under for Missouri last season and lost (by half a game), but I enjoyed the absolute pile of names I was called along the way so much that every part of me wants to take the under again. I looked hard for a way to justify it at -150, but I couldn’t do it in good faith. Mizzou and its powerful offense could start the year 3-0 and finish the slate with wins over Vanderbilt, Tennessee and Arkansas, as the Vols and Razorbacks are both in a state of transition. There are also winnable games against Memphis, Florida and Kentucky on the slate. I’ll be back to pound the under next year when star quarterback Drew Lock is in the NFL. Promise.

The win total: 6
The pick: over (+125)

Ole Miss quarterback Shea Patterson, who started 10 games for the Rebels in his two seasons in Oxford, is now at Michigan, leaving Jordan Ta’amu to throw to a hyper-talented group of wide receivers. Ole Miss rallied around new head coach Matt Luke a season ago, and the first-time head coach was able to will the program to a 6-6 record despite a long list of off-filed distractions. The under is probably the smart play in a world where everything is equal, but things are nowhere near equal here, as the under is –145. I like the over, as Luke seems to have the full support of his players, and the Rebels - weird new shark mascot and all - have plenty of talent on the roster. There are plenty of worse bets to take at +125. The defense might be a bit suspect, but that can be said about a number of teams. I actually like the value here even more since I started writing this paragraph three minutes ago.

The win total 7.5
The pick: Over (-115)

Quarterback Jake Bentley is a year older and is a hot start away from seeing some serious Heisman buzz tossed his way. Combine that with the fact that South Carolina’s defense showed undeniable improvement under Will Muschamp and you have an intriguing team with an over that seems almost too good be true. Muschamp and company will play three straight home games twice this season and have three probable wins against non-conference opponents built into the schedule. I feel as comfortable about this over pick as any, which likely means the Gamecocks are doomed. But what’s the worst that can happen if you sell all your earthly possessions and bet the cash on a group of teens and young 20-somethings playing a kid’s game?

The win total: 7.5
The pick: Over (-120)

Jimbo Fisher is the head coach at Texas A&M, which still doesn’t feel all the way real, but whatever. Fisher takes over a team not short on talent and has a reputation for getting the most out of quarterbacks, of which he has two solid options. Both Kellen Mond and Nick Starkel showed promise a season ago, and the A&M defense is now under the guidance of Mike Elko, who joins the Aggies after leaving Notre Dame. Fisher is a proven coach and is suddenly equipped with something resembling two tested quarterbacks. And while the defense has its share of questions marks, A&M plays just four true road games this season. I like the over here, but probably not enough to bet my own money. I’d happily bet yours.

The win total 5.5
The pick: Under (-110)

Betting the over here would be a leap of faith, as nobody knows anything about Jeremy Pruitt as a head coach. What we do know is that Tennessee went 4-8 a year ago and never looked like a team that belonged in the postseason. Sure, a new coaching staff and new scheme could work wonders from the jump. This rebuild could also take time. If we’re judging from what took place last year, the latter seems more likely. Graduate transfer quarterback Keller Chryst was 11-2 at Stanford, so him winning the job would come with some semblance of new hope, but the personnel behind him and Michigan State running back transfer Madre London isn’t miles better than it was a year ago. It’s not impossible to think that the Vols will return to a bowl game, but logic says the under is the play at -110. Tennessee fans don’t want to hear that. They also didn’t want to hear that John Gruden would never coach their team. The only difference is that, this time around, they have a chance at being correct.

The win total: 4
The pick: Over (-115)

The Commodores have scheduled a pair of decent non-conference opponents, but should be capable of winning both (home) games. The Vanderbilt offense will miss running back Ralph Webb, but quarterback Kyle Shurmur had a solid showing a year ago, limiting his interceptions while throwing 26 touchdowns. Still, The Commodores' season will hinge on whether or it can improve a defense that was laughable at times a year ago. Derek Mason is a good enough coach to steal an upset win or two despite being out-talented and the defense won’t have to be perfect for Vandy to stagger its way to the five-win mark.