Over/under win totals: Sizing up the Pac-12

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The Pac-12 welcomes in five new coaches, including UCLA’s Chip Kelly, who returns to a college sideline for the first time since 2013. A year ago, our Rob Cassidy boasted a 7-5 record picking the league’s win total over-unders, which is a decent mark by anyone’s standards. This year, he’ll attempt to improve on that performance. Below is a win total and a pick for each of the conference’s teams. As always, all lines are according to the offshore website Betus.com.

RELATED: Cassidy's Pac-12 picks from 2017

The win total: 7.5

The pick: Over (-160)

Quarterback Khalil Tate is a certified star and will put up massive numbers this season, but the offensive line was impacted by departures and the defense returns nine starters from a unit that struggled in 2017. Still, the schedule sets up well for the Wildcats, which get Arizona State, USC and Oregon at home. The -160 price tag is steep, but seems worthwhile.

The win total: 5

The pick: Over (+130)

Concerns over Herman Edwards’ long-term viability as ASU’s head coach are warranted, but they have little to do with the season ahead. The Sun Devils return a quarterback in Manny Wilkins and a budding star wide receiver in N'Keal Harry. Add in the fact that it’s unlikely that Edwards forgot how to coach football since his last stint as a coach, and ASU has a chance. The defense might be a problem, but the talent to get to a bowl game is here. I think 7-5 is certainly conceivable when you look at the schedule, which includes extremely winnable home games against Oregon State, UCLA and Utah.

The win total: 6

The pick: Over (-120)

Cal should not lack for points this season, as nearly the entire offense returns from a year ago. The defense, which ranked near the middle of the conference in points allowed a year ago, also has most of its key components back. The Golden Bears could well open the season 3-0 before hosting Oregon on Sept. 29. Cal also gets a beatable UCLA team at home and closes the season with a home game against Colorado, which could determine how this bet swings.

The win total: 5

The pick: PUSH

Colorado rolled with an average defense and an offense that struggled to do, well, anything, a year ago and the result was five wins. That said, quarterback Steven Montez could take a step forward if the weapons around him improve. The schedule is unforgiving, however, and plotting a path to six wins take some serious optimism. Five wins sounds right.

The win total: 8.5

The pick: OVER

Oregon made a change at head coach following last season, but it’s easy to argue that the Ducks’ 7-6 record in 2017 could have been better if not for an injury to quarterback Justin Herbert, who missed five games. Herbert is back under new head coach Mario Cristobal, who hopes to run an offense that reminds fans of Oregon of old. Jim Leavitt is one of the best defensive coordinators in the country. I like the over here, as 9-3 is attainable for a team that should start 4-1 at worst.

The win total: 2.5

The pick: UNDER (-130)

The Beavers were 1-11 a year ago, and it takes one hell of an optimistic outlook to see them being competitive in 2018. There simply isn’t a lot of offensive talent here and the sample size on head coach Jonathan Smith is too small to expect a quick improvement. There are games with Southern Utah and Nevada, both of which Oregon State better win because another 0-9 record in the Pac-12 seems possible.

The win total: 8

The pick: OVER (+120)

We don’t need to waste any keystrokes explaining the talent of Heisman-hopeful running back Bryce Love, but the fact that he may have an even better offensive line than he had a year ago seems notable. The defense is a wildcard, however, as the Cardinal lost plenty from last year’s stout unit. The easy pick would be a push, but +120 is appealing. Let’s roll with the over.

The win total: 5.5

The pick: Under (+130)

UCLA’s offense will be fun, sure, but it won’t be as innovative as it was when Kelly began running it at Oregon. Kelly is also without a proven quarterback (unless you count Michigan transfer Wilton Speight) and inherits a defense that allowed 36.6 points per game last season. The Bruins travel to Oklahoma early in the season, which could be a less-than-enjoyable trip. Finding six surefire wins on the schedule isn’t easy and the under comes at +130, which adds to its allure.

The win total: 8

The pick: Over (-160)

Yes, I know the Trojans are replacing All-Pac 12 quarterback San Darnold (possibly with an 18-year-old freshman). I also know that finding a fill-in for departed running back Ronald Jones won’t be easy either. But the Trojans have what could be the Pac-12’s best defense and JT Daniels, who will likely start a quarterback, is no ordinary 18-year old. USC plays road games at both Texas and Stanford, but it should have a decisive talent advantage in both of those games. I see another 10-win season here and will happily take the over, even at -160.

The win total: 7

The pick: Under (even)

Utah’s all-Florida backfield of quarterback Tyler Huntley and running back Zach Moss will have the offense in good hands and each went a long way in proving himself a year ago. The offensive line is experienced and formidable as well. The defense, however, is where the question marks lie. The schedule is tricky, as the Utes have to follow an early-season home game against Washington with back-to-back road games at Washington State and Stanford, both of which will be toss-ups. Plus, the under is even money.

The win total: 10

The pick: Under (+145)

This bet hinges on week one. If the Huskies get by Auburn in the opener, prepare to pay up because the schedule is soft. If UW drops the opener, things are suddenly a trap game away from a push. Chris Petersen’s team will likely be favored in every Pac-12 game, but losses at Utah, at Oregon or against Stanford certainly are conceivable. The +145 next to the under makes this alluring, as I can talk myself into a lot, even betting against one of the nation’s best coaches, for those odds.

The win total: 6

The pick: Under

Washington State must find a quarterback after tragedy struck the program in the form of Tyler Hilinski’s death. Mike Leach won’t hold back throwing the ball regardless of starting an inexperienced quarterback, so the offense may take time to find its footing. Leach is an incredible coach and will likely start the season 3-0, but willing a young team with questions marks on both sides of the ball is difficult even for him. Six wins seems right, but it’s fun to have a take. I’ll go with the under but I won’t do it with much confidence.