NSD Preview: Flip watch, predictions for the SEC
National Signing Day, the biggest day of the recruiting calendar, is next Wednesday and the drama is building for some of the nation's top recruits. Uncommitted prospects are finalizing their plans while some verbally committed players are wondering if they need to rethink their decisions.
This week we take a closer look at the major storylines and important prospects fans need to be following in each conference. Up next is the SEC.
MORE NSD PREVIEWS: Flip watch, predictions for the ACC
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BIGGEST DRAMA
Since his late spring decision to commit to Georgia over Nebraska and USC, the only drama surrounding top-ranked quarterback Dylan Raiola was related to his cross-country transfer to Buford (Ga.) High School for his senior season.
That was until news broke earlier this week that his recruitment wasn't quite over.
The nation's second-ranked prospect will likely take a visit to the campus in which he and his family are most familiar, Nebraska, during the final weekend of the open period for the 2024 class. Naturally, there is considerable buzz for Raiola flipping from Georgia to Nebraska given the timing of the trip, so it becomes arguably the top individual storyline to track going into next week.
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TEAM RANKINGS
With a potential Raiola departure dominating the news, the grasp Georgia has on the SEC's top class feels thin at best. Just days ago, it looked like Kirby Smart's program was in for a relatively quiet Early Signing Period, with a focus on maintenance more than addition, but now the Raiola storyline flips that on its head. Lose the five-star passer and the door is busted wide open for a new leader atop the nation's most competitive conference – mainly Alabama.
The Crimson Tide have shot up the top 10 in December thanks to the latest rankings update and the reclassification of five-star commitment Ryan Williams from the 2025 class up to 2024. Alabama also has a bevy of targets still out there to potentially add next Wednesday from blue-chippers such as pass rusher Solomon Williams, running back Daniel Hill, cornerback Zavier Mincey, linebacker Bradley Shaw and others. Should Nick Saban and company add some volume from this list, the race for the SEC's top class could be very close.
Elsewhere in the league, Auburn, Florida, LSU and Tennessee each sit in the top 15 of the rankings one week out. The Tigers have surged under High Freeze of late, snagging top-five overall recruit and top in-stater Cam Coleman in the process. Auburn looks like a near lock for a top-10 finish with many additional targets still in front of the program going forward such as Shaw, offensive linemen Coen Echols and Favour Edwin. The Tigers are also working the flip game heavy and it starts at the top with five-star safety KJ Bolden, but also includes multiple Alabama commitments and at least one Florida pledge in Amaris Williams.
Texas A&M, Ole Miss, South Carolina and Kentucky also sit within the top 25 of the team rankings.
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TOP THREE SEC COMMITS
Recruiting drama aside, at least for now, and Raiola showed impressive consistency in transitioning to Buford High as a senior. Sure, he was joined by several talented teammates at one of the Peach State's top programs, but he upped his level of competition and lived up to the five-star hype in learning a new system and flashing big-play potential along the way.
Raiola is known for his physical prowess and big arm, leading many to labelling him a gunslinger, but he showed the ability to process and protect the football in 2023 in amassing 34 touchdowns against just one interception.
A prototypical edge talent from the state of Missouri, Nwaneri has been in the top-overall prospect conversation for the better part of 2023 because of his premium position value and overall athletic profile.
The Missouri commitment, who was linked to Georgia and Oklahoma before picking the Tigers, stands an intimidating 6-foot-5, 250 pounds and he can work blockers on the inside or out. He has enough twitch to set the edge and play contain against running backs and of course works with enough bend to attack the passer.
The reigning Elite 11 MVP has closed the gap on Raiola heading into the all-star circuit, with each standing within the top-five nationally in the class. Sayin followed the offseason showcase events with a dominant senior season, throwing for more than 2,300 yards and 24 touchdowns for the third straight campaign -- only this time completing a staggering 75 percent of his passes along the way.
The Alabama commitment is known for his processing and accuracy, and no passer has been able to match Sayin's standard over the last calendar year.
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FLIP ALERT
Will he stick with Georgia or flip to the program that his family has been synonymous with in Nebraska? The timing of the final visit just before signing day feels telling.
The longtime Florida State commitment is being pushed by in-state Georgia and Auburn, which may be the biggest threat to the Seminoles when all is said and done.
LSU and Texas are looking for a change of heart from the Texas A&M commitment.
The new 2024 wide receiver may not ink with anybody next week, leaving the door open for Auburn, LSU, Texas and others going into the New Year.
Filsaime has been committed to Florida since April, but in-state Texas has trended for the elite safety in recent weeks. A late official visit to Austin could seal the deal for this flip.
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PREDICTIONS
Alabama overtakes Georgia for the top class: Raiola's late visit and smoke surrounding Nebraska flipping him is near wildfire status with a week still to go, and it will feel even longer for Georgia fans. That combined with Alabama's opportunity to add considerable blue-chip talent in the coming week and Nick Saban's track record for this time of year has me thinking Alabama could pace the SEC for the second-straight cycle. There are different ways to rank classes this days, especially with the transfer portal wide open, but the classic ranking still matters in this conference. Each will have a shot at No. 1 overall when the dust settles.
Florida flounders down the stretch: The program once sat at No. 3 in the overall team rankings before losing four commitments near the end of the football season. December could potentially get worse for Billy Napier's program, as key commitments such as five-star quarterback DJ Lagway, four-star safety Xavier Filsaime, four-star pass rushers Amaris Williams and LJ McCray all face heavy pushes ahead of signing day. All but Lagway have taken at least one visit elsewhere in December. Should any combination of these class headliners ink elsewhere on Wednesday, the class could be closer to outside the top 25 than within the top 10.
Texas A&M and Mississippi State will have an exciting finish: The Aggies have the only top-25 haul in the team rankings with fewer than 17 verbal commitments, so Mike Elko has done a good job in the retention department, especially with prospects such as Bussey and Dominick McKinley. It also means there's plenty of room for additions, so keep an eye on running back Anthony Carrie, pass rusher Solomon Williams and others. With Jeff Lebby on board the offensive commitments have rolled in for the Bulldogs, from quarterback Michael Van Buren to several skill prospects to surround the passer with. The latter pursuit is far from finished, as MSU has a lot in front of it with offensive and defensive skill such as local star Braylon Burnside, fellow four-star Jayden Lewis and a new flip target in record-setting NC State commitment Ronnie Royal.
Ole Miss challenges for top class under Kiffin: The Rebels have been portal-heavy in recent years and will probably remain that way under Lane Kiffin, but their 2024 class has a chance to be their best on paper since Kiffin took over Oxford. The highest-ranked the Rebels have finished under him was No. 17 in the 2021 cycle, and right now Ole Miss sits at No. 20 nationally. The Rebels are battling Alabama for running back Kewan Lacy and are fresh off of hosting a flip target at quarterback in Anthnoy Maddox and have another blue-chip Egg Bowl battle at Starkville High with Braylon Burnside. Ole Miss is also hosting Texas A&M commitment Tristan Jernigan this coming weekend, so there's room for the Rebels to work up the ranks in short order.