If I Were A Betting Man: Week 14 picks

LOOK BACK AT BETTING MAN: Week 13 | Week 12 | Week 11 | Week 10 | Week 9

The regular season has come to a close, and it is time to see how this undertaking shook out. While I’ve picked games against the spread before, I’ve never laid out specific dollar amounts on predictions and opened things up with money lines, over/unders, etc. So what lessons did I learn in my own personal Year 1 of this endeavor? Here are my won-loss records for the 66 bets I placed:

Money line favorite: 18-5

Favorite to cover: 6-6

Over: 1-1

Money line underdog: 2-3

Underdog to cover: 4-7

Tease: 2-6

Under: 1-4

Remember, the money line favorite carries high risk, such as when I had to risk $875 to win $100 on Penn State beating Indiana. But if you are able to avoid the colossal, OU-loses-to-Iowa State type of upsets (I did), you can do well sticking with the sure things.

The "over" has always been the safer bet in college football. So why did I bet the under five of the seven times I ventured into the ‘over/under’ arena? I was dumb, and I paid for it.

And finally, the dreaded "tease." It seems SO EASY when you are getting six additional points in your favor for each game. Apparently, it is not. I finally gave up on them after watching at least one of the two teams fail to come through almost every week.

This week offers a chance to get into the positive side heading into bowl season. There are a slew of rematches where one team blew out the other the first time around. I’m going to ride the money line favorites for the most part and see where it takes me.

Week 13 record: 3-2

Week 13 net payout: + $140

Season record: 34-32

Season payout: - $140

Note: The lines listed are from Covers.com / All times Eastern

USC pounded Stanford 42-24 in early September, racking up more than 300 rushing yards and 300 passing yards against a bewildered Cardinal defense. Stanford has recovered nicely, winning eight of nine after an early 1-2 start, but it is hard to ignore the first result. The Trojans are coming off a bye week, which helps.

The bet: $50 on USC to win (-90)

UCF whipped Memphis 40-13 in late September and went on to record an undefeated regular season. The Scott Frost-to-Nebraska distraction could be a real thing to guard against, as Memphis upset Tom Herman-led Houston last season one day before Herman accepted the job at Texas. Can the Tigers and quarterback Riley Ferguson do it again? Statistically, this game is a toss-up, but it is hard to ignore the previous result, and the home field will be key for the Knights.

The bet: $50 on UCF to win (-130)

The Owls destroyed North Texas 69-31 in October. They led 41-7 at halftime. Lane Kiffin gets all the headlines, but the guy who does the work is running back Devon Singletary, who has an NCAA-best 26 rushing TDs. The Lane Train is going to keep rolling and trolling.

The bet: $50 on Florida Atlantic to cover

Oklahoma buried TCU 38-20 and led 38-14 at halftime in the first meeting in Norman. Has TCU improved enough to slow down presumed Heisman winner Baker Mayfield and Co.? Doubtful. Sure, this game is at a neutral field, but OU’s offense is too high-powered to get outscored no matter where the game is played.

The bet: $100 on Oklahoma to win (-260)

Auburn hammered Georgia 40-17 a mere three weeks ago at Auburn, then followed that up with a convincing 12-point win over Alabama. The Tigers are playing inspired football, especially on defense. Kerryon Johnson’s shaky status is keeping the spread down, but look for Auburn to make it two in a row over the Dawgs.

The bet: $50 on Auburn to win (-65)

Finally, we don’t have a rematch! The underdog has covered in six straight Big Ten championship games, and the 12-0 Badgers are poised to make it 13. The narrative for Wisconsin has been easy schedule, and not winning impressively enough against said schedule. But in the last four games (Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota), the Badgers have won by an average of 24.3 points. Take the points.

The bet: $50 on Wisconsin +7

Here’s another game I’m willing to give the points. Miami looked like world-beaters against Notre Dame, but that game was at a souped-up Hard Rock Stadium. Miami’s last three games away from home were a four-point win over 5-6 Florida State, a five-point win over 3-9 North Carolina and a 10-point loss to 5-7 Pittsburgh. Clemson’s D-line is going to force Miami QB Malik Rosier to beat it, and that spells trouble for the Hurricanes.

The bet: $100 on Clemson to cover