If I Were A Betting Man: Week 9 picks

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Following the 2013 college football season, three long-time powers were in the market for a new coach. USC, Texas and Penn State all finished with winning records, but all three needed new leadership. Ed Orgeron was an interim coach and was not going to get the full-time slot, Mack Brown’s glory days were behind him and Bill O’Brien jumped back into the NFL as head coach of the Houston Texans.

James Franklin figured to get one of the three jobs. In three years at Vanderbilt, he had done the near-impossible — three bowl games, back-to-back nine-win seasons, multiple wins over Tennessee, a top 25 finish and a top 20 recruiting class. He was young, energetic, successful and presumably on the market.

USC hired Steve Sarkisian away from Washington in early December, reportedly scared off of a pending rape case against some players (three players have since been convicted) at Vanderbilt that Franklin recruited. Texas opted for Charlie Strong, and Penn State, after going hard after Miami’s Al Golden, chose Franklin.

Three years later, both USC and Texas are on their second coaches, while Franklin has Penn State undefeated and ranked No. 2 in the nation. The Nittany Lions, led by their Heisman Trophy candidate, will play in the marquee game of the weekend for the second straight week when they travel to No. 6 Ohio State on Saturday.

Would Franklin have done the same with the Trojans or Longhorns? Penn State fans are glad no one will ever know.

The lines listed are from Covers.com.

Week 8 record: 4-1

Week 8 net payout: + $290

Season record: 22-18

Season net payout: + $245

Ohio State has scored 50 points in four-straight games, but those opponents are currently ranked Nos. 62, 71, 106, and 123 in total defense. Penn State is ranked No. 9 (and No. 1 in scoring defense). Still, I like the Buckeyes with a narrow win here thanks to the homefield advantage and having a bye week leading into the big game, two advantages Notre Dame had last week before it blew out USC.

The bet: $50 on Ohio State to win (-125)

Georgia fans are terrified of this matchup despite the fact that the Bulldogs have the much better team. Florida has won the cocktail party three years in a row by a minimum of 14 points, but that streak is coming to an end. Look for lots of unsportsmanlike conduct, sloppiness and illegal forward passes in the parking lots prior to the game, and look for a Georgia win once the teams kick it off.

The bet: $100 on Georgia to win (-525)

The Cyclones, ranked for the first time in 12 years, are an OT loss to Iowa away from a 6-1 record. But TCU quarterback Kenny Hill has found a groove, and the TCU defense has not allowed a touchdown in two weeks. Iowa State is a tidy 5-2 as home dogs against the spread under Matt Campbell, so if you want to take the points, go for it. Personally, I’m 10-0 betting on favorites on the money line, so I’m going to keep riding that horse.

The bet: $100 on TCU to win (-245)

One team is 5-2, with two losses to Power Five teams. The other team is 1-6, with a win over winless Georgia Southern. Yes, UMass’s losses are all 10 points or fewer, and App State has had a penchant for the close win, but this spread seems awfully low.

The bet: $150 on Appalachian State to win (-270)

Mitch Light of Athlon Sports, my unofficial gambling advisor who is way above .500 this year, talked me into teasing San Jose State this weekend. Not because we are big believers in the 1-7 Spartans, but because, with the tease, BYU would actually have to score 19 points simply to cover the adjusted line. And BYU averages 12.1 points per game and ranks No. 128 in scoring. On the other side of the tease, I’m bumping Georgia Tech up to 20 points against Clemson. Tech is arguably two plays from an undefeated record and top 10 ranking. Tech is 6-0 against the spread this season, while Clemson is 3-5 as a double-digit home favorite the last two years. The Jackets can keep it close enough.

The bet: $50 on San Jose State (+19), Georgia Tech (+20)