If I Were A Betting Man: Week 12 picks

Chris Andrews, a bookmaker at the South Point sports book in Las Vegas, released some interesting lines for projected (or locked-in) conference championship games this week.

Of the 10 listed matchups, five are rematches, and while the winner of the first game is favored in four of the five, the lines are interestingly low.

Georgia would be just a one-point underdog to Auburn after losing 40-13 in November. USC would be just a 3.5-point favorite after thrashing Stanford 42-24 early in the regular season. Oklahoma beat TCU by 18 and Oklahoma State by 10, yet would be favored by a touchdown or less in both potential rematches.

We’ll go into our championship weekend betting when the time comes, but it is hard to ignore an earlier result. The cliche of it being tough to beat a team twice in the same season is just that — a cliche. If these lines stay the same, there should be some money to be made in early December.

Note: The lines listed are from Covers.com

Week 11 record: 3-3

Week 11 net payout: +$25

Season record: 28-27

Season payout: - $415

Wisconsin is eager to show the world it can record a victory over a name team, and with ESPN's GameDay in town, it is going to be a perfect stage. The two best defenses in the Big Ten will slug it out on a cold day in Madison. Michigan quarterback Brandon Peters has been solid in two starts, giving the Wolverines some hope on that side of the ball. The reward is worth the risk in this one, as I’ll bet against Wisconsin moving to 11-0 and slipping up against a stingy defense.

The bet: $50 on Michigan to win (+125)

A classic letdown spot for the Canes, who have shined the last two weeks in big, prime-time home games. Hard Rock Stadium will not be as rocking with the noon start, and Virginia is a pretty decent team. Canes will win, but that is too many points to give.

The bet: $100 on Virginia +19.5

Rutgers is 8-2 against the spread this season, including a perfect 4-0 on the road. Indiana is 2-7 against the spread, including 1-3 at home. Rutgers has quietly been playing some decent ball, while Indiana has a 10-point win over Illinois as its only Big Ten victory. Eleven points is too many.

The bet: $50 on Rutgers +11

Georgia Tech is still looking for its first road win, but it is running up against a team that is in a tailspin. The Devils have lost six straight after a promising start. Duke did a respectable job against Army’s option attack last week, but Georgia Tech has more weapons.

The bet: $100 on Georgia Tech -6.5

Win one for Brady Hoke? The Vols are obviously a mess, but more specifically they are a mess on offense, scoring just 17 points last week against a Missouri defense ranked No. 93 in the nation. How is freshman QB Will McBride, the third QB the Vols have tried this season, going to fare against the No. 16 defense? Playing it safe here with the money line.

The bet: $100 on LSU to win (–$700)

I don’t really understand this line. Missouri just beat Florida by 29 and Tennessee by 33. Vanderbilt is not appreciably better than either of those teams. Vandy has lost its six SEC games by an average of 26 points and has been within 14 of just one. Missouri lights up bad defenses, and the Commodores check in at No. 76 nationally. Tigers big in this one.

The bet: $150 on Missouri -7.5