If I Were A Betting Man: Week 13 picks

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The final week of the regular season upon us, and your intrepid gambling prognosticator is still searching for trends. As you can see below, a 31-30 record this season is rather pedestrian. Is there a trend I’m missing, a secret formula staring me right in the face?

UCLA fired Jim Mora last weekend. When the Bruins take on Cal on Saturday, it will be with interim coach Jedd Fisch, upping the number of Power Five interim coaches who took over in the middle of the season to four. Hmmm, is there a trend to be discovered here? Are the programs hopelessly lost at this point? Or does the new man inject some needed enthusiasm and the team ups its performance?

I decided to go back to last year as well, and look at every Power Five school’s interim coach who took over as head coach after the season was underway. Purdue and LSU fired coaches at midseason last year, while Oregon State, Florida, Tennessee and now UCLA parted ways with a head coach this season.

In all, there have been 22 regular-season games coached by interim coaches the last two years. And their collective record against the spread stands at … 11-11.

Back to the drawing board.

Note: The lines listed are from Covers.com

Week 12 record: 3-3

Week 12 net payout: + $135

Season record: 31-30

Season payout: - $280

How weird are things in the state of Florida? The FSU-Florida game features two teams with losing records for the first time since 1959. Meanwhile, Miami, USF, UCF and Florida Atlantic are a combined 37-4. Florida State has three things going for it in this game — the pride of its four-game win streak over the Gators, the possibility of a bowl game and a permanent head coach. The favorite has won and covered in nine of the last 10 matchups in this rivalry.

The bet: $100 on FSU to win (-210)

Before the season, Michigan looked as if it had a shot to get the Buckeye monkey off its back. After 11 games, that no longer is the case. Ohio State has beaten Michigan five straight (12 of the last 13) and it will make it five on Saturday. Michigan’s quarterback situation is iffy with Brandon Peters in concussion protocol this week, but he hasn’t had appreciably more success than John O’Korn or Wilton Speight before him. Michigan’s defense can give Ohio State problems, and the Wolverines have a chance to cover for the fourth time in five games, but the safe money is on Ohio State to get the win.

The bet: $100 on Ohio State to win (-460)

Kentucky has struggled against the spread this season (3-8), but Louisville hasn’t been much better at 4-7. Louisville quarterback Lamar Jackson is doing his best to polish up his Heisman resume for a return trip to New York, but Kentucky is going to be eager to bounce back after its disappointment at Georgia. The Wildcats are 4-2 at home this year, with a bizarre/heartbreaking loss to Florida and a last-second loss to Ole Miss. Ten points is plenty for Kentucky here.

The bet: $50 on Kentucky +10

It is always a good idea to bet the over in college football, but these two defenses should own the day in Columbia. Clemson checks in at No. 3 in the nation in points against (13.9) while South Carolina is at No. 21 (19.6). In yards per play, Clemson is No. 6 and South Carolina No. 44. Clemson has a lot on the line and will not lose focus. The Tigers held USC to seven points and 211 yards a year ago. A similar effort should be in store.

The bet: $50 on the under

Wazzu can make its first Pac-12 championship game with a win, while a Washington win will send Stanford to the title game against USC. Both teams have played Utah and Stanford in their last two games. The Cougs went 2-0, while Washington went 1-1, with the win coming in the somewhat fluky ending against Utah. Washington State’s defense, plus the potential explosiveness of quarterback Luke Falk, make 10 points too much to give in this one.

The bet: $50 on Washington State +10

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