With the coaching carousel winding down and every Power Five job now filled, Rivals national recruiting director Adam Gorney breaks them all down and gives a grade on each hire.
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ALABAMA
Kalen DeBoer has been the head coach in 116 games in his career and won 104 of them, nearly a 90-percent clip. He is also coming off the best two-year stretch in Washington football history where he led the Huskies to the national title game this season as well. DeBoer is a winner to say the least. He has done well with quarterbacks and he seems ready – if anyone is – to step into this position.
This might be the most difficult job in college football – Coaching Alabama, which will not relent on the highest of expectations, and following Nick Saban, the best to ever do it. DeBoer is not proven as a recruiter yet especially in the rip-your-throat-out recruiting world of the SEC. Plus, every decision he makes will be questioned as to whether Saban would have done the same thing.
But Alabama wants a winner and DeBoer is one.
Grade: A
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ARIZONA
There is significant talent on the roster so that should ease the coaching transition but other than an impressive COVID year in 2020, Brent Brennan’s resume at San Jose State isn’t all that great. One wonders if he can keep the momentum going with the Wildcats as they head into the Big 12.
In six full seasons at San Jose State, Brennan’s teams never won more than seven games. He turned it around after going 3-22 in his first two seasons but the Spartans were only a marginal player in that conference.
The Wildcats have tasted big success and beat Oklahoma in their bowl games this year, so expectations are high. High-end recruiting will continue if Brennan can tap more Southern California talent but winning will have to continue first.
Grade: C
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DUKE
Manny Diaz got three seasons at Miami, went 21-15 and was fired. He went on to do an excellent job as Penn State’s defensive coordinator the last couple years. There is no question that Diaz has a great defensive mind and that he can recruit (although recruiting to Miami and Penn State is a lot easier than to Duke).
Here’s the question though: After Mike Elko turned around the Blue Devils and made them a real pain in the ACC can Diaz continue that momentum? He has experience and he has the coaching acumen but there are a lot of other pieces to being a head coach and trying to recruit to Durham, especially as there are other ACC teams ticking up right now.
Grade: B-
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HOUSTON
Whether it was at Blinn College, Central Missouri, Sam Houston State, Georgia Southern or most recently at Tulane, Willie Fritz has never left a school with a losing record. Fritz transitioned Georgia Southern into the FBS and then made Tulane a real contender so continuing the move for Houston into a Big 12 contender seems right up Fritz’s alley.
There are some things to watch though: Can he keep top Houston prospects home to play for the Cougars? Winning in the Big 12 is much more difficult than in other conferences where he’s coached. Can he rebound quickly after losing significant offensive and defensive line depth to the portal? Fritz has a proven track record and he wins so Houston made a great hire.
Grade: A-
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INDIANA
I Googled new Indiana coach Curt Cignetti. He wins. Cignetti is 119-35 as a coach but this isn’t Indiana University of Pennsylvania, Elon or James Madison although he did a phenomenal job at all those stops and put the Dukes in the national conversation this year. But this job at Indiana might be as close to impossible as there is in Power Five football.
The Hoosiers lost a lot of players to the transfer portal but one wonders whether that’s necessarily a bad thing given their record in recent years. Cignetti also smartly used the portal to bring in some fresh blood – much of it from his James Madison team – so that will be something to watch.
Here’s a worrisome fact though: From 2008-23, not counting the COVID year, Indiana has one winning season. And the Big Ten is getting much, much more challenging.
Grade: A-
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MICHIGAN
When news started emerging that former coach Jim Harbaugh would head back to the NFL, it became a fait accompli that Michigan offensive coordinator Sherrone Moore would get the job. He led the Wolverines through two three-game stretches this season when Harbaugh was suspended and beat Penn State, Ohio State and others. He also has the love and respect of the locker room and that was crucial in this decision.
But Moore has never led any program as a head coach. He’s only been an offensive coordinator for a few years and defensive coordinator Jesse Minter just left Michigan for possible NFL opportunities. It’s not a question that Moore is capable of being a great coach. But Michigan is one of the nation’s proudest programs just coming off a title. Can Moore continue that success while also navigating an ongoing NCAA investigation of which we have no idea who inside the building had involvement?
Grade: B
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MICHIGAN STATE
If you’ve read my stuff, I really dislike hires of coaches with career losing records but I also love guys who can turn programs around relatively quickly. That’s just what Jonathan Smith did at Oregon State under arguably even more difficult conditions than he’ll find in East Lansing.
There is almost no recruiting territory to work from so Smith had to do more with less, find diamonds in the rough, mine overlooked talent from the Pacific Northwest, California and elsewhere, then convince those kids to move to Corvallis.
He had to do it in the shadow of big, bad Oregon and all those fancy facilities and Nike money.
And that’s what Smith did as the Beavers had a winning record the last three seasons including 10 wins in 2022. With Harbaugh off to the NFL, there could be an even bigger opening for the Spartans with in-state talent. Smith has done more with less for a long time.
Grade: A+
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MISSISSIPPI STATE
Jeff Lebby has no head coaching experience anywhere let alone in the SEC but he had success as an offensive coordinator at UCF, Ole Miss and Oklahoma before getting the Mississippi State job. Some have deadpanned this hire but I contend it’s a really good one after a rudderless season under former coach Zach Arnett in which he for some reason tried to change the Bulldogs into something they weren’t.
Lebby is bringing back the pass-happy offense and his first recruiting class was put together phenomenally well down the stretch as he loaded up with receivers by convincing JJ Harrell to stay, landing local star Braylon Burnside, got a steal in four-star Mario Craver and more.
Dan Mullen took Mississippi State to No. 1 overall in 2014 but that was also the one and only time the Bulldogs have won 10 games in the 2000s. Lebby can put firepower on the field and then let’s see what happens.
Grade: B+
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NORTHWESTERN
It was only last January that David Braun was hired as Northwestern's defensive coordinator and after the hazing scandal took out Pat Fitzgerald, Braun was named interim coach for the 2023 season and blew away all expectations. The Wildcats' 8-5 record was their best in a handful of years, as they beat Wisconsin, Purdue, Illinois and Utah to close out the season and Braun earned the full-time job.
It's inarguable that there was a staleness around Northwestern in Fitzgerald's final years before the hazing scandal cost him his job. Braun won the locker room, the team played harder and better for him, and while there are still striking challenges ahead for the Wildcats in a Big Ten that is getting far better with the Pac-12 entrants, Braun feels like the right man at the right time for this job. Now, can he win on a consistent basis?
Grade: A
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OREGON STATE
There is no doubt Trent Bray has the defensive bona fides to be considered an impressive hire. He knows the Oregon State program inside and out being an impact player for the Beavers and now coaching there extensively. With Smith leaving for Michigan State and him building that program into a contender, the momentum needs to be sustained but now there might be even more challenges.
Other than an interim role at Nebraska in 2017, Bray has never been a head coach. Plus, recruiting was difficult enough at Oregon State while in the Pac-12 but with that conference disintegrating it could make things vastly more difficult. There are a lot of challenges to be had, no doubt, but Bray has institutional knowledge, a great track record as a defensive coach and he hired some impressive assistants. This could be interesting.
Grade: B
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SYRACUSE
Fran Brown has no head coaching experience but he has compiled an excellent coaching staff that he can lean on and he’s a phenomenal recruiter which is already paying off. The transfer portal could also be Syracuse’s best friend as the Orange have landed players from Texas A&M, LSU, Alabama, Georgia, West Virginia and other places. Many could be immediate contributors.
There might be some growing pains in terms of how Brown, most recently the DBs coach at Georgia, handles in-game management but his coaching staff is more than capable. This is a very difficult job, though, and other than one season Dino Babers and many other coaches couldn’t figure it out. A new vision and a breath of fresh air from Brown could be what Syracuse needs.
Grade: B+
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TEXAS A&M
Texas went to the College Football Playoff this year. TCU went to the national title last season. Baylor won the Big 12 a few seasons ago. All the while the “sleeping giant” Texas A&M has been stuck in third gear and Jimbo Fisher ended up with a worse record than Kevin Sumlin before him (although Fisher walked away with a whole lot more money).
Now it’s coach Mike Elko’s turn to try to make the Aggies a national contender – and that means playing for SEC titles and getting into the College Football Playoff. Elko opened a lot of eyes winning nine games in his first season at Duke and when he got the A&M job he did the smart thing by bringing the Texas high school coaches into the program. That will go a long way in recruiting the state.
A ton of talent departed via the transfer portal but there’s a new look and a new feel in College Station. But with that comes the highest expectations and the SEC is getting way tougher.
Grade: B+
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WASHINGTON
Jedd Fisch did wonders at Arizona, recruited well in California and especially at Anaheim (Calif.) Servite, to make the Wildcats a real Pac-12 contender and it looked like the momentum was going to continue in Tucson. But, frankly, while Fisch has built up an impressive resume both in college and the NFL he has also shown throughout his career he doesn’t stay at places very long. Since starting his coaching career in 1997, he’s only stayed at two places for three years or more, including this Arizona job.
And so he now moves on to Washington which is coming off a run to the national title game. Fisch will inherit a roster that looks vastly different than the one that played Michigan a few weeks ago. Still, Washington is a higher-profile program with great resources that has proven it can recruit in talent-rich California.
Will Fisch’s departure from Arizona turn off some recruits? Or will his success in Arizona intrigue them to go play for him?
Grade: B+
