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Three-Point Stance: Red Raiders rolling

LJ Martin
LJ Martin (Nick Lucero/Rivals.com)

Rivals national recruiting director Adam Gorney takes a look at Texas Tech’s fast start, how May is already shaping up to be another busy month of commitments and five debates coming in the upcoming 2023 rankings meetings.

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1. TEXAS TECH LOADING UP

Joey McGuire
Joey McGuire (Texas Tech Athletics)

If you have not noticed, Texas Tech is nearly done with its 2023 recruiting class even though May just started and it’s still more than seven months to the Early Signing Period.

First-year coach Joey McGuire is known for his exuberance and the excitement he and his staff have brought to Lubbock even before coaching one game. It is already paying off. Connections across the state are also paying dividends as every single commit in the class except one is from the state of Texas.

The Red Raiders have 20 commitments already. No other team has more than 11. Texas Tech currently has the No. 1 class nationally and while that is unexpected to stay that way since other teams will boost their average star rankings as the recruiting cycle continues, it’s still a big statement for McGuire and his staff.

Not only is Texas Tech loading up on players quickly, it is getting quality recruits as well. Four-star RB LJ Martin is the newest pledge. Big 12 champion Baylor just offered Texas Tech commit Jayden Cofield. Four-star Calvin Simpson-Hunt, who picked the Red Raiders in November, is being pursued by TCU, just got offered by Notre Dame, Utah, Ole Miss, Florida, LSU and others.

Other teams in the Big 12 are taking the steady, methodical approach to building out their recruiting classes as no other squad in the conference has double-digit commitments. Texas Tech has as many pledges as the next three teams combined in the conference rankings as Baylor (9), Texas (5) and West Virginia (6) try to keep pace.

There is also quality in this class. It has been more than a decade since Texas Tech has had six or more four-stars in a recruiting class as the Red Raiders signed seven in 2011. With more than half-a-year to signing day, McGuire’s club already has six four-stars pledged.

SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS WITH TEXAS TECH FANS AT REDRAIDERSPORTS.COM

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2. MAY SHAPING UP TO BE BUSY

Christian Pierce
Christian Pierce (Rivals.com)

There used to be times during the year where recruiting slowed down, people across the sport could take a breather and reset for another busy chunk of time. That’s no more. The entire calendar is almost filled now with camps, visits, everything one could imagine and while I’m not complaining it also means May is going to be another hectic month.

Commitments are expected to come at a frenetic pace as three-star safety Christian Pierce from Rancho Cucamonga, Calif., started the month off on Sunday with a pledge to USC.

Four-star offensive lineman Austin Siereveld commits Wednesday with Ohio State, Notre Dame and Alabama as the three finalists. The Buckeyes are looking good for the in-state prospect and if he joins the Ohio State class it will have a phenomenal offensive line group already.

Florida has to like its chances with Bradenton (Fla.) IMG Academy offensive lineman Knijeah Harris who commits next weekend as he’s working off a top list of Alabama, Florida, Miami, Michigan State, Oklahoma and Texas A&M.

South Carolina is a team to watch for three-star DB Zahbari Sandy out of Washington (D.C.) St. John’s and then Dante Lovett and Dante Dowdell are planning commitments in the next few weeks. Dowdell is particularly interesting because he has emerged this offseason as one of the better running backs in the Southeast. The Picayune, Miss., standout earned his fourth star after looking good at the recent Rivals Camp Series event in New Orleans.

It’s going to be another busy month so stay tuned.

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3. FIVE RANKINGS DEBATES COMING

Arch Manning
Arch Manning (Rivals.com)

Another round of rankings are coming as we meet in late May and release in early June and there are already lots of questions and debates that pop in my mind. Here are five I’ve been thinking about most:

1. Who’s the No. 1 receiver?

This is going to be a good one. Brandon Inniss gets open against everybody and catches everything but there might be more freakishly dynamic receivers in this class with Carnell Tate and Zachariah Branch coming to mind.

Current five-star Shelton Sampson has not done many events this offseason so he’s still a little bit of an unknown and then Hykeem Williams will also be involved in that conversation because he already looks ready for big-time college football and the NFL. It should get really interesting what we settle on there.

2. How high should Nico Iamaleava go?

There are four five-star quarterbacks in the top nine of the 2023 class but it feels like Tennessee commit Nico Iamaleava is still too low overall. Arch Manning, USC pledge Malachi Nelson and Dante Moore are ranked ahead of Iamaleava but the Long Beach (Calif.) Poly standout has had a phenomenal offseason.

At the Los Angeles Rivals Camp, Iamaleava was more impressive than Nelson on that single day but Nelson has been phenomenal in games and other events as well. That’s going to be a tough call. Manning has not done much nationally this offseason and Moore has been solid and impressive when he’s taken the field.

This is a phenomenal group of pro-style quarterbacks but Iamaleava feels better than fourth in that group.

3. Arch Manning did no national events. Is he still No. 1?

Arch Manning is both the most-discussed and least-seen prospect in a long time, maybe ever in Rivals history dating back to 2002. It’s really an interesting storyline in the 2023 class and could have lots of implications down the line as things play out in this group of recruits.

There have been plenty of opportunities for Manning to compete against national competition, to show his stuff against Nelson, Iamaleava, Moore, anybody but the New Orleans (La.) Isidore Newman standout has been mainly busy with visits to his top schools and possibly setting up other ones.

Texas, Georgia and Alabama look like the lead group but there has been chatter about LSU and Florida recently and then Ole Miss and others are trying to stay involved as well.

Focused on working with his team and getting ready for a big senior season is commendable but it also makes ranking him accurately tough if there are no apples-to-apples comparisons on the national level.

Manning is an incredible talent with an equally incredible family bloodline. He’s smart beyond his years and capable of being a phenomenal player in college and beyond.

But will we ever see him anywhere other than in Newman games?

4. Should Nyckoles Harbor be higher?

This question has been broached before but will be brought up again - and might have more clarity because the Washington (D.C.) Archbishop Carroll five-star athlete is expected at the Rivals Camp in Philadelphia in a couple weeks.

There is no doubt Nyckoles Harbor is not a finished product and still needs to learn and grow if he’s going to be a standout defensive end. But Harbor is such a freakshow of a track athlete - watch some YouTube clips - that it’s almost a virtual guarantee he’s going to test and run off the charts at a future NFL Combine.

He’s No. 15 nationally now. Should Harbor be a guarantee inside the top 10 based on his athletic ability alone?

5. Any new five-stars?

There are currently 16 five-stars in the 2023 class which is a little aggressive for so early in the recruiting cycle but it’s also only halfway to our aspirational number of 32 which would reflect who we believe would be first-round NFL Draft picks.

So, who are some names that we’ve seen over the last few months that will at least be discussed? There are no guarantees especially when it comes to five-star rankings but Francis Mauigoa, Caleb Downs, Zachariah Branch, Hykeem Williams and so many others are going to be discussed and there should be some surprises along the way as well.

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