OVERACHIEVER OR UNDERACHIEVER SERIES: Monday: National | Tuesday: ACC | Wednesday: SEC | Thursday: Big 12 | Friday: Big Ten | Saturday: Pac-12
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Rivals.com analytical look at the biggest underachievers and overachievers in college football concludes with a closer look at the data in the Pac-12, where Cal not only yielded the lowest efficiency score in the league but also the nation. The biggest overachiever out west? Oregon, who finished above every other Pac-12 school by a wide margin.
As a refresher, the study is a measure of overachieving and underachieving based on NFL talent each college team has on its roster juxtaposed with the program’s number of wins, top 25 finishes and titles produced over a 10-year period. We used the formula below, which was created by Rivals.com's Rob Cassidy and statistician D. Kyle Burkett on every Power Five conference team, and the median score among them was used as the basis to determine just how much each team overachieved or underachieved, based on its NFL talent.
The formula is as follows:
Talent Efficiency Score = ((Wins/3)+(AP Top 25 Finishes x 3) + (Power Conference Title x 6) + (Group of Five Conference titles x 3) + (National titles x 9)) / TOTAL DRAFT PICKS
NOTE: In the case of a split conference title, the points were divided among all winners
1. OREGON - 1.187 above the median
RECORD: 100-32
TOP 25 FINISHES: 8
CONFERENCE TITLES: 4
NATIONAL TITLES: 0
NFL PICKS: 32
The kings of Pac-12 overachievement, Oregon checks in at No. 6 on the national list. Obviously, the program’s impressive showing in the study isn’t the work of anything ultra-recent. Instead, the Ducks’ three consecutive Pac-12 titles and seven consecutive seasons of double-digit wins propelled them to success. It’s notable that the five drafts that factored most heavily into the team’s back-to-back-back 12-win campaigns in 2010, 2011, and 2012 produced just 19 draft selections, an average of 3.8 per year.
2. STANFORD - .526 above the median
RECORD: 98-35
TOP 25 FINISHES: 7
CONFERENCE TITLES: 3
NATIONAL TITLES: 0
NFL PICKS: 37
Stanford’s on-field success and academic-based recruiting restraints are well-documented, so seeing it fare well in a study such as this is not a shock. Despite the constraints, the Cardinal have managed produced 37 draft picks in the last 10 NFL Drafts, a number that ranks second in the conference, so it’s the wild on-field success that offsets such a large number. Stanford has won the Pac-12 title three times in 10 years and finished in the AP Top 25 seven times over the same span. They’ve accomplished all of it with far fewer draft picks than USC, which has one fewer Pac-12 crown to its name.
3. WASHINGTON STATE - .212 above the median
RECORD: 47-48
TOP 25 FINISHES: 0
CONFERENCE TITLES: 0
NATIONAL TITLES: 0
NFL PICKS: 10
The Cougars have produced just 10 draft picks in the last nine drafts, a number good for dead last in the Pac-12 by a significant margin. Wazzu went through some on-field struggles early in the sample size, but being bowl eligible in four of the last five seasons helped its score. Staying competitive in the Power Five with little NFL talent isn’t particularly easy, but Mike Leach has done just that in Pullman.
4. WASHINGTON - .205 above the median
RECORD: 72-58
TOP 25 FINISHES: 3
CONFERENCE TITLES: 1
NATIONAL TITLES: 0
NFL PICKS: 25
The 2016 Pac-12 Champions, Washington has three top-25 finishes to its name. It also has an 0-12 season at the back end of the data set. Still, the Huskies have played in eight bowl games in the last 10 seasons and done so with a relatively moderate number of NFL Draft sections. The program’s 9-4 finish in 2013 produced just eight selections in the following three drafts and come out of the formula as a slight overachiever.
5. ARIZONA - .194 above the median
RECORD: 70-59
TOP 25 FINISHES: 1
CONFERENCE TITLES: 0
NATIONAL TITLES: 0
NFL PICKS: 17
Arizona sits just barely above the national median score, making it a program that, more times than not, performs up to its level of NFL talent level. The Wildcats have just one top-25 finish to their name in the last decade but average seven wins person despite operating with fewer draft picks than schools such as Oregon State and Rutgers.
6. UTAH - .151 above the median
RECORD: 86-42
TOP 25 FINISHES: 5
CONFERENCE TITLES: 1
NATIONAL TITLES: 0
NFL PICKS: 31
Utah’s 2008 conference title came in the Mountain West, so the algorithm doesn’t weigh it as heavily as a Power Five title. Still, the Utes manage to hover around the top end of the meeting-expectations zone. Kyle Whittingham’s teams have finished in the top-25 in five of the last 10 years and have won 10 games or more on four occasions. Conventional wisdom would suggest the Utes rank much higher on this list, but the program quietly produces a relatively large number of draft picks.
7. ARIZONA STATE - .004 above the median
RECORD: 67-60
TOP 25 FINISHES: 2
CONFERENCE TITLES: 0
NATIONAL TITLES: 0
NFL PICKS: 21
Also in the meeting-expectations zone is Arizona State, which won 10 games in both 2013 and 2014 despite producing just seven picks in the three drafts that followed that run. The Sun Devils would likely perform better if 2009 was struck from the record, as the program had three players drafted following the four-win effort.
8. USC - .205 below the median
RECORD: 94-38
TOP 25 FINISHES: 7
CONFERENCE TITLES: 2
NATIONAL TITLES: 0
NFL PICKS: 56
The Trojans are the historical kings of the conference, but their high number of draft packs combined with recent coaching uncertainty lands the them on the underachievers list, be it barely. USC pumped out 27 draft picks in the three years that followed a 7-6 finish in 2012. Still, the fact that it has captured a pair of Pac-12 titles and fished in the top 25 seven of the last 10 years keeps it separated from the country’s true underachievers.
9. COLORADO - .220 below the median
RECORD: 42-82
TOP 25 FINISHES: 1
CONFERENCE TITLES: 0
NATIONAL TITLES: 0
NFL PICKS: 15
Colorado spent a portion of the last 10 years in the Big 12, but also spent that time struggling regardless of conference. The Buffaloes one bright spot is a 10-win effort in 2016. Otherwise, things have been relatively bleak in Boulder. Colorado’s 15 draft picks are more than the 10 produced by Washington State but the Buffalos have won five fewer games.
10. OREGON STATE - .367 below the median
RECORD: 53-71
TOP 25 FINISHES: 2
CONFERENCE TITLES: 0
NATIONAL TITLES: 0
NFL PICKS: 24
Oregon State doesn’t pump out a massive number of draft picks, but its 53-71 record is less than ideal for a team that has sent 24 players to the draft over the last nine years. The Beavers have won just 12 games over the course of the last five seasons despite having eight players drafted in the four draft classes that contributed to that record.
11. UCLA - .555 below the median
RECORD: 68-61
TOP 25 FINISHES: 2
CONFERENCE TITLES: 0
NATIONAL TITLES: 0
NFL PICKS: 36
One of the Pac-12’s two extreme underachievers, the Bruins have seen 18 players selected over the course of the last three NFL Drafts, but head coach Jim Mora was fired last season after finishes of 6-7, 4-8 and 8-5 over the same timeframe. UCLA has outperformed rival USC in the last three NFL Drafts but has nothing to show for doing so.
12. CALIFORNIA - .751 below the median
RECORD: 56-68
TOP 25 FINISHES: 0
CONFERENCE TITLES: 0
NATIONAL TITLES: 0
NFL PICKS: 31
Cal finished the study dead last nationally. The Bears went 5-7 in 2010 despite having 14 players selected in the three drafts that followed the disappointing season. Among those players was first-round pick Cameron Jordan, a three-time Pro Bowler. Cal ranks fifth in the Pac-12 in NFL draft picks over the last nine drafts but has missed the postseason more than they’ve made it in the same timeframe.
POWER FIVE RANKINGS
On Monday, we revealed the rankings for all Power Five teams (excluding Notre Dame), breaking down the top and bottom five in detail. Here is the complete Power Five ranking, with No. 1 being the biggest overachieving program based on success vs. the NFL talent on its roster and No. 64 being the most underachieving program:
1. Duke (4.312)
2. Oklahoma State (1.751)
3. Iowa State (1.645)
4. Northwestern (1.534)
5. Kansas State (1.384)
6. Oregon (1.187)
7. Michigan State (1.183)
8. TCU (.910)
9. Georgia Tech (.768)
10. Texas Tech (.764)
11. Auburn (.699)
12. Virginia Tech (.645)
13. Stanford (.583)
14. Wisconsin (.582)
15. Alabama (.550)
16. Minnesota (.494)
17. Texas (.452)
18. Oklahoma (.449)
19. Clemson (.408)
20. Vanderbilt (.336)
21. Florida State (.274)
22. Baylor (.264)
23. Ohio State (.224)
24. Washington State (.212)
25. Louisville (.206)
26. Washington (.205)
27. Arizona (.194)
28. West Virginia (.168)
29. Utah (.151)
30. Ole Miss (.045)
31. Missouri (.026)
T32. Arizona State (-.004)
T32. Kentucky (.004)
34. Penn State (–.020)
35. Nebraska (–.053)
36. Mississippi State (–.059)
37. Pittsburgh (–.132)
38. Syracuse (–.142)
39. Texas A&M (–.158)
40. Kansas (–.187)
41. USC (–.205)
42. South Carolina (–.207)
43. Colorado (–.220)
44. Maryland (–.224)
45. Rutgers (–.229)
T46. Virginia (–.270)
T46. Wake Forest (–.270)
48. Michigan (–.275)
49. Purdue (–.277)
50. NC State (–.280)
51. Boston College (–.283)
52. Georgia (–.321)
53. Tennessee (–.328)
54. Indiana (–.330)
55. Florida (–.342)
56. Oregon State (–.367)
57. Iowa (–.372)
58. LSU (–.405)
59. Arkansas (–.495)
60. UCLA (–.557)
61. Miami (–.609)
62. North Carolina (–.644)
63. Illinois (–.716)
64. California (–.751)
