Overachiever or underachiever? Ranking all SEC teams

OVERACHIEVER OR UNDERACHIEVER SERIES:

Monday: National | Tuesday: ACC | Wednesday: SEC | Thursday: Big 12 | Friday: Big Ten | Saturday: Pac-12

Rivals.com’s NFL Draft-based analytic series examines the SEC, where the league’s massive number of NFL draft picks sets the bar rather high. And while the league failed to place a school in the top 10 of the study, Auburn finished just outside at No. 11. The SEC had three programs land in the bottom 10 with Florida, LSU and Arkansas producing low scores.

As a refresher, the study is a measure of overachieving and underachieving based on NFL talent each college team has on its roster juxtaposed with the program’s number of wins, top-25 finishes and titles produced over a 10-year period. We used the below formula created by Rivals.com's Rob Cassidy and statistician D. Kyle Burkett on every Power Five conference team, and the median score among them was used as the basis to determine just how much each team overachieved or underachieved based on its NFL talent.

The formula is as follows:

Talent Efficiency Score = ((Wins/3)+(AP Top 25 Finishes x 3) + (Power Conference Title x 6) + (Group of Five Conference titles x 3) + (National titles x 9)) / TOTAL DRAFT PICKS

NOTE: In the case of a split conference title, the points were divided among all winners.

Auburn’s place on top of the SEC is a bit of surprise, as the Tigers tossed their share of players into the NFL during an impressive decade that included a national title and three seasons of double-digit wins. Arkansas’ spot at the bottom is less surprising, as program has struggled to get over the hump of mediocrity despite great NFL Draft success.

Juggernaut Alabama found itself in the black, being named an overachiever despite the wealth of NFL talent it’s had over the years. The Tide’s place on the overachievers stands in support of the theory that dynasties aren’t built on talent alone. Below is a closer look at each SEC team and how it measured up when the numbers were crunched.

Record: 83-48

Top 25 finishes: 5

Conference titles: 2

National titles: 1

NFL picks: 31

The Tigers’ 31 draft picks puts them seventh in the SEC behind teams such as Arkansas, Florida and LSU, but they have am SEC title, a national title and five top-25 finishes to show for them. Auburn isn’t exactly hurting for top-end talent, but that doesn’t prohibit it from over-performing. The team’s 2010 national title is made more impressive when you consider that the Tigers had just six total NFL draft picks in the three years that followed. For comparison’s sake, Alabama’s 2015 title produced 29 in the next three drafts.

Record: 125-14

Top 25 finishes: 10

Conference titles: 5

National titles: 5

NFL picks: 77

How does a program that produced a whopping 77 NFL Draft picks, the most of any Power Five team, get listed as an heavy overachiever? By winning five national titles. The Tide have more talent than everyone else, sure, but it takes more than that to dominate an entire decade. There’s not much hidden data here. Nick Saban’s program ranks well above the median because of a generational level of on-field success that somehow manages to offset the program’s massive number of draft picks.

Record: 53-72

Top 25 finishes: 2

Conference titles: 0

National titles: 0

NFL picks: 14

The James Franklin Era in Nashville certainly helps. Still, the Commodores’ academic-based recruiting restrictions are well-documented and a big reason why the program has had more than two players selected in the same draft only once in the last 10 years. Vandy finished in the top 25 in both 2012 and 2013 despite having just four total players selected in the next three NFL Drafts.

Record: 69-57

Top 25 finishes: 4

Conference titles: 0

National titles: 0

NFL picks: 25

Ole Miss finds itself in the meeting-expectations zone. The Rebels have produced a relatively pedestrian number of draft picks by SEC standards but have still managed to finish in the top 25 on four occasions. Failing to win a conference title and reaching the 10-win mark just once in the last decade hurt their standing in the study, but hovering just above the median certainly isn’t shameful.

Record: 80-50

Top 25 finishes: 4

Conference titles: 0

National titles: 0

NFL picks: 25

Missouri’s last 10 years spanned the Big 12 and SEC, but the Tigers managed to come out in the study’s “meeting expectations” zone and sit slightly above the median. Mizzou has managed to finish in the top 25 on four occasions over the last decade and won 12 games in 2013. The Tigers produced 13 draft picks in the three drafts following said season and, according to the numbers, play up to their talent level.

Record: 53-72

Top 25 finishes: 0

Conference titles: 0

National titles: 0

NFL picks: 13

Kentucky also sits around the median and the fact that it managed to reach the postseason five times while producing just 13 NFL draftees is probably why. Making the postseason is a victory for a team with such little NFL talent, and the Wildcats managed to do so five times in the last 10 years.

Record: 74-54

Top 25 finishes: 3

Conference titles: 0

National titles: 0

NFL picks: 26

The Bulldogs have come close to performing as expected this decade. Their 26 draft picks over the last nine drafts are tied for ninth in the SEC. And despite having an equal number with Tennessee, Mississippi State produced 12 more victories and one additional top-25 finish.

Record: 77-52

Top 25 finishes: 3

Conference titles: 0

National titles: 0

NFL picks: 29

A&M, which spent four years of the study competing in the Big 12, is the last SEC school hovering around the median, as the Aggies have three top 25 finishes and a relatively mediocre 26 draft picks. A&M, which has won double-digit games just once in 10 years, has spent the last decade unsuccessfully trying to break into the upper-tier of college football and the data seems to reflect that struggle. That said, it’s not as though the last decade has been shameful.

Record: 81-49

Top 25 finishes: 4

Conference titles: 0

National titles: 0

NFL picks: 34

South Carolina’s record itself doesn’t present a problem. The fact that the Gamecocks have had 34 players drafted (a number good for fifth in the SEC) while failing to win a conference title and only finishing the in top 25 four times in 10 seasons is what nudges them on the wrong side of the median. South Carolina sits just outside of the meeting-expectations zone, so it’s not as though they’ve made a habit of wasting talent. In fact, the program seems to play up to its talent levels in most seasons with a few exceptions Having nine players drafted in the three years after 2014’s 7-6 campaign isn’t ideal, but it’s hardly embarrassing.

Record: 95-39

Top 25 finishes: 5

Conference titles: 1

National titles: 0

NFL picks: 51

Georgia’s run to last season’s national title game, while impressive, didn’t save the day when the numbers were crunched. The 51 draft picks UGA has produced since 2009 rank behind Florida, Alabama and LSU in the SEC. And while Georgia managed to win 10 or more games six times in the study’s time frame, the fact that it won just one SEC title hurt its standing when juxtaposed against the program’s mountain of professional talent. Still, it’s not as though the Bulldogs rank among the conference’s very worst. Still, it’s clear the Mark Richt era didn’t always reach the heights its talent suggested it could have.

Record: 62-63

Top 25 finishes: 2

Conference titles: 0

National titles: 0

NFL picks: 26

Tennessee didn’t finish that much below Georgia, which seems like a bit of surprise . The Vols had just more than half the number of draft picks, however, which helps explain the finish. UT went 7-6 in 2009 and saw nine players selected in the three drafts that followed.

Record: 86-42

Top 25 finishes: 5

Conference titles: 1

National titles: 1

NFL picks: 58

Florida hovering around the bottom of the league is no shocker, but it becomes more surprising when you remember their 2008 national title. Fifty-eight gators have been drafted since 2009, which is third in the SEC. And while UF has finished in the top 25 five times in the last 10 years and won a national championship, things have been less than ideal since. The Gators, which have missed the top 25 for half the seasons included in this survey, went 4-8 in 2013 and 4-7 in 2017 while maintaining a heavy stream of professional players.

Record: 95-34

Top 25 finishes: 8

Conference titles: 1

National titles: 0

NFL picks: 65

LSU was tabbed as an underachiever well before this study existed and the numbers back up the that reputation. The 65 draft picks the Tigers have produced since 2009 rank second nationally. They have put more players in NFL drafts than programs such as Clemson, Florida State, Ohio State, USC and Oklahoma. It’s not as though the Tigers have been an on-field disaster over the last 10 years, but the sheer number of pros the team has produced suggests it still managed to do less with more.

Record: 67-59

Top 25 finishes: 2

Conference titles: 0

National titles: 0

NFL picks: 33

The SEC cellar dweller by a significant margin, Arkansas has produced more draft picks than teams such as Auburn, Oregon and Texas, but has failed to win anything of substance in the last 10 years. The Razorbacks have finished under .500 four times in the last 10 seasons and, this year, had three players drafted from a four-win team. Arkansas has not been light on talent this decade, which should serve as encouragement for the program’s new coaching staff. That said, it’s hard to find a good reason why Arkansas has managed just two top-25 finishes since 2008 despite having the SEC’s sixth-highest number of NFL Draft selections.

On Monday, we revealed the rankings for all Power Five teams (excluding Notre Dame), breaking down the top and bottom five in detail. Here is the complete Power Five ranking, with No. 1 being the biggest overachieving program based on success vs. the NFL talent on its roster and No. 64 being the most underachieving program:

1. Duke (4.312)

2. Oklahoma State (1.751)

3. Iowa State (1.645)

4. Northwestern (1.534)

5. Kansas State (1.384)

6. Oregon (1.187)

7. Michigan State (1.183)

8. TCU (.910)

9. Georgia Tech (.768)

10. Texas Tech (.764)

11. Auburn (.699)

12. Virginia Tech (.645)

13. Stanford (.583)

14. Wisconsin (.582)

15. Alabama (.550)

16. Minnesota (.494)

17. Texas (.452)

18. Oklahoma (.449)

19. Clemson (.408)

20. Vanderbilt (.336)

21. Florida State (.274)

22. Baylor (.264)

23. Ohio State (.224)

24. Washington State (.212)

25. Louisville (.206)

26. Washington (.205)

27. Arizona (.194)

28. West Virginia (.168)

29. Utah (.151)

30. Ole Miss (.045)

31. Missouri (.026)

T32. Arizona State (-.004)

T32. Kentucky (.004)

34. Penn State (–.020)

35. Nebraska (–.053)

36. Mississippi State (–.059)

37. Pittsburgh (–.132)

38. Syracuse (–.142)

39. Texas A&M (–.158)

40. Kansas (–.187)

41. USC (–.205)

42. South Carolina (–.207)

43. Colorado (–.220)

44. Maryland (–.224)

45. Rutgers (–.229)

T46. Virginia (–.270)

T46. Wake Forest (–.270)

48. Michigan (–.275)

49. Purdue (–.277)

50. NC State (–.280)

51. Boston College (–.283)

52. Georgia (–.321)

53. Tennessee (–.328)

54. Indiana (–.330)

55. Florida (–.342)

56. Oregon State (–.367)

57. Iowa (–.372)

58. LSU (–.405)

59. Arkansas (–.495)

60. UCLA (–.557)

61. Miami (–.609)

62. North Carolina (–.644)

63. Illinois (–.716)

64. California (–.751)