Overachiever or underachiever? Ranking all the Big 12 teams

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Rivals.com’s NFL Draft-based analytic series examines the Big 12, which produced three of the study’s five biggest overachievers. The Big 12 didn’t place a single school in the bottom 20.

As a refresher, the study is a measure of overachieving and underachieving based on NFL talent each college team has on its roster juxtaposed with the program’s number of wins, top 25 finishes and titles produced over a 10-year period. We used the formula below, which was created by Rivals.com's Rob Cassidy and statistician D. Kyle Burkett on every Power Five conference team, and the median score among them was used as the basis to determine just how much each team overachieved or underachieved, based on its NFL talent.

The formula is as follows:

Talent Efficiency Score = ((Wins/3)+(AP Top 25 Finishes x 3) + (Power Conference Title X 6) + (Group of Five Conference titles x 3) + (National titles x 9)) / TOTAL DRAFT PICKS

NOTE: In the case of a split conference title, the points were divided among all winners

Oklahoma State sits atop the Big 12 rankings, but Iowa State and Kansas State, which have experienced different levels of on-field success over the past decade, sit directly behind the Cowboys. The three schools at the top form a tight pack, with every other Big 12 school falling in line at a solid distance behind the three leaders.

Texas, which most assume would be listed as a massive underachiever, actually makes the overachievers list, as the Longhorns recent NFL Draft success hasn’t been as extensive as the narrative seems to preach. Overall, just one Big 12 team, Kansas, found itself under the study’s median. Below is a closer look at each Big 12 team and how it measured up when the numbers were crunched.

RECORD: 96-34

TOP 25 FINISHES: 7

CONFERENCE TITLES: 1

NATIONAL TITLES: 0

NFL PICKS: 19

Efficiency-wise, Oklahoma State has been at its best only recently. Mike Gundy’s program has won 10 games in four of the last five seasons, and has done so without having more than two players selected in any one draft during that period. Gundy is gaining a reputation as one of the country’s best head coaches, and the numbers say that the buzz is warranted. The Pokes won the 2011 Big 12 title despite having just five players selected in the next three NFL Drafts.

RECORD: 45-79

TOP 25 FINISHES: 0

CONFERENCE TITLES: 0

NATIONAL TITLES: 0

NFL PICKS: 5

Iowa State isn’t exactly a juggernaut. The Cyclones haven’t won a Big 12 title and seem to constantly be fighting mediocrity. That said, the study suggests they do more with less. The Cyclones have seen just five of their players drafted since 2019, but they have somehow pulled off four bowl appearances in that time. Iowa State earns its efficiency score by staying competitive despite a staggering lack of NFL talent. Big 12 doormat Kansas, a school with a 28-93 overall record in the years that factored into this study, has produced more draft picks than the Cyclones during the time frame.

RECORD: 79-49

TOP 25 FINISHES: 3

CONFERENCE TITLES: .5

NATIONAL TITLES: 0

NFL PICKS: 14

Kansas State won a share the 2012 Big 12 Championship and had just six total players selected in the three NFL Drafts that followed. That kind of scenario has always been Bill Snyder’s calling card, and the statistics indicate that he’s earned his spot among the country’s best coaches. The Wildcats have the Big 12’s longest streak of having at least one player drafted, but they’ve never had more than three players chosen in any one draft. That hasn’t stopped the program from thriving, however, as K-State has played in the postseason in eight of the last 10 years. Quarterback Josh Freeman (2009) was the only Wildcat selected in the first round during the study’s time frame.

RECORD: 98-32

TOP 25 FINISHES: 7

CONFERENCE TITLES: 4

NATIONAL TITLES: 0

NFL PICKS: 29

TCU spent some of the study’s time frame playing in the Group of Five, so the conference titles the Horned Frogs won there weren’t weighted as heavily as Big 12 championships. That hasn’t stopped them from claiming a place near the top of the league, however. TCU split the 2014 Big 12 title and had just eight players selected in the three drafts that followed. The fact that the program finished ranked in all but three of the seasons that factored into the study is impressive when you consider that the Frogs rank behind teams such as Utah, UCLA, Cal and Arkansas when it comes to NFL draft selections. TCU and Baylor boast an identical number of draftees.

RECORD: 71-56

TOP 25 FINISHES: 2

CONFERENCE TITLES: 0

NATIONAL TITLES: 0

NFL PICKS: 14

Texas Tech has had three different head coaches over the course of this study, but they sit well above the median. The fact that Mike Leach’s 11-2 season is still included in the sample helps, especially since just six Red Raiders were drafted in the three years that followed. Things aren’t great in Lubbock right now, but for a program that has averaged just 1.5 selections per draft, you’d actually expect them to be worse. Tech has been bowl eligible in seven of the last 10 seasons.

RECORD: 78-50

TOP 25 FINISHES: 8

CONFERENCE TITLES: 1

NATIONAL TITLES: 0

NFL PICKS: 31

Preconceptions be damned. The numbers say Texas has actually outperformed the median when it comes to success relative to NFL Draft selections. Have the Longhorns been a juggernaut? Hardly. But keep in mind that the program has had fewer players drafted than teams such as Utah, Stanford, South Carolina and Iowa. In fact, the Longhorns have the same number of NFL selections as Nebraska. That’s all to say the narrative that Texas is gifted a superior level of talent is less than bulletproof. The reality is that the Longhorns have finished in the AP Top 25 in eight of the last 10 seasons without the mountain of NFL players people seem to assume they are given as a birthright.

RECORD: 105-51

TOP 25 FINISHES: 8

CONFERENCE TITLES: 5.5

NATIONAL TITLES: 0

NFL PICKS: 51

The Sooners have been the Big 12’s premier team on the field and in the draft for most of the past 10 years. OU’s 51 draft selections are tops in the league, and the 5.5 conference titles the Sooners have to their name are also unmatched.

Still, the numbers paint the Sooners as an overachiever. OU has had fewer NFL draftees than most top-tier teams in every other Power Five conference. In fact, OU would be tied with Georgia for fourth in the SEC in that category. Still, that hasn’t kept the Sooners from finishing in the Top 25 in eight of the last 10 seasons.

RECORD: 73-54

TOP 25 FINISHES: 4

CONFERENCE TITLES: 1.5

NATIONAL TITLES: 0

NFL PICKS: 28

Baylor went 1-11 a year ago, so that makes the overachieving it did in the recent past seem like ancient history - even if it isn’t. The Bears benefit from 1.5 Big 12 titles and the fact that they once won double-digit games in four out of five seasons. The Bears’ back-to-back, 11-win seasons in 2013 and 2014 produced just 14 NFL draft picks in the four drafts that followed, an average of 3.5 per draft.

RECORD: 80-49

TOP 25 FINISHES: 4

CONFERENCE TITLES: .66

NATIONAL TITLES: 0

NFL PICKS: 28

West Virginia’s shared Big East titles factored into the equation, but the fact that each was split three ways devalued them a touch. Still, the Mountaineers were able to hover around the national median. The numbers suggest that WVU has met expectations relative to its NFL talent. West Virginia won 10 games in 2016 and has had just three players drafted in the two years since.

RECORD: 28-93

TOP 25 FINISHES: 0

CONFERENCE TITLES: 0

NATIONAL TITLES: 0

NFL PICKS: 8

Kansas has had a bad run, but a couple factors keep them around the median. First, the end of the Mark Mangino era in Lawrence factored into the sample, so the Jayhawks get a boost from an 8-5 finish in 2008. The other factor is that the team has been extremely low on NFL-level players. KU has been shut out of the NFL Draft in six of the last 10 years and had just one player selected in the three years since their 0-12 finish in 2015. You won’t win many games without talent. KU stands as proof of that rule.

On Monday, we revealed the rankings for all Power Five teams (excluding Notre Dame), breaking down the top and bottom five in detail. Here is the complete Power Five ranking, with No. 1 being the biggest overachieving program based on success vs. the NFL talent on its roster and No. 64 being the most underachieving program:

1. Duke (4.312)

2. Oklahoma State (1.751)

3. Iowa State (1.645)

4. Northwestern (1.534)

5. Kansas State (1.384)

6. Oregon (1.187)

7. Michigan State (1.183)

8. TCU (.910)

9. Georgia Tech (.768)

10. Texas Tech (.764)

11. Auburn (.699)

12. Virginia Tech (.645)

13. Stanford (.583)

14. Wisconsin (.582)

15. Alabama (.550)

16. Minnesota (.494)

17. Texas (.452)

18. Oklahoma (.449)

19. Clemson (.408)

20. Vanderbilt (.336)

21. Florida State (.274)

22. Baylor (.264)

23. Ohio State (.224)

24. Washington State (.212)

25. Louisville (.206)

26. Washington (.205)

27. Arizona (.194)

28. West Virginia (.168)

29. Utah (.151)

30. Ole Miss (.045)

31. Missouri (.026)

T32. Arizona State (-.004)

T32. Kentucky (.004)

34. Penn State (–.020)

35. Nebraska (–.053)

36. Mississippi State (–.059)

37. Pittsburgh (–.132)

38. Syracuse (–.142)

39. Texas A&M (–.158)

40. Kansas (–.187)

41. USC (–.205)

42. South Carolina (–.207)

43. Colorado (–.220)

44. Maryland (–.224)

45. Rutgers (–.229)

T46. Virginia (–.270)

T46. Wake Forest (–.270)

48. Michigan (–.275)

49. Purdue (–.277)

50. NC State (–.280)

51. Boston College (–.283)

52. Georgia (–.321)

53. Tennessee (–.328)

54. Indiana (–.330)

55. Florida (–.342)

56. Oregon State (–.367)

57. Iowa (–.372)

58. LSU (–.405)

59. Arkansas (–.495)

60. UCLA (–.557)

61. Miami (–.609)

62. North Carolina (–.644)

63. Illinois (–.716)

64. California (–.751)