NSD Preview: Flip watch, predictions for the Big 12
National Signing Day, the biggest day of the recruiting calendar, is Wednesday and the drama is building for some of the nation's top recruits. Uncommitted prospects are finalizing their plans while some verbally committed players are wondering if they need to rethink their decisions.
This week we take a closer look at the major storylines and important prospects fans need to be following in each conference. Up next is the Big 12.
MORE NSD PREVIEWS: Flip watch, predictions for the ACC | SEC | Big Ten
TEAM RECRUITING RANKINGS: ACC | BIG TEN | BIG 12 | PAC-12 | SEC | OVERALL
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FINAL 2023 TEAM RANKINGS: Comprehensive (overall) ranking | High school/JUCO ranking | Transfer portal ranking
CLASS OF 2024 RANKINGS: Rivals250 | Team | Position | State
CLASS OF 2025 RANKINGS: Rivals250 | Team | Position | State
CLASS OF 2026 RANKINGS: Rivals100
TRANSFER PORTAL: Latest news | Transfer search | Transfer tracker/player ranking (football) | Transfer team ranking (football) | Transfer tracker/player ranking (basketball) | Transfer team ranking (basketball) | Rivals Portal Twitter
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BIGGEST DRAMA
Can Texas flip high four-star safety Xavier Filsaime?
That’s basically the biggest question right now around the Big 12 as the Longhorns have not backed off the McKinney, Texas, standout one bit and he’s taking a visit to Austin this weekend.
This is not clearly a flip situation, though.
Filsaime has been committed to Florida since April, and through a stretch of decommitments in recent weeks, it has been Filsaime rallying the rest of the commits to stay with the Gators. He had an important in-home with new Florida secondary coach Will Harris earlier this week.
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TEAM RANKINGS
The Big 12 team rankings have been unbelievably consistent since the inception of Rivals in 2002 as Oklahoma and Texas have been 1-2 in every single recruiting cycle. The Sooners have actually dominated the top spot every year except the last two when the Longhorns finished No. 1 in the conference rankings.
It looks like the same will happen again in 2024 as the Longhorns have a decent lead heading into the final week and with only 21 commits (compared with 27 for Oklahoma) they still have some more room to add players.
Texas Tech is currently in third place and the only other program with a five-star commit (Texas has three and Oklahoma has one) in Temple (Texas) Lake Belton receiver Micah Hudson, who turned down Texas, Texas A&M and others to stick with the Red Raiders.
New Houston coach Willie Fritz has his work cut out for him to close out this recruiting cycle and start on 2025 as the Cougars are sitting with only six commitments and might need to rely heavily on the recruiting portal to get things going.
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TOP THREE BIG 12 COMMITS
The Texas Tech commit could make an argument to be the top-ranked receiver in this class based off production and playmaking ability because he had 70 catches for 1,370 yards and 18 touchdowns this season. Hudson should be an immediate contributor in Texas Tech’s offense. He has game-breaking speed and playmaking ability, and is always making something happen on the field.
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Stone has come up through the Rivals events and has been a name on the national scene since middle school but now the Oklahoma commit has developed into a grown man and he dominated at Bradenton (Fla.) IMG Academy this season. Stone is all of 6-foot-4 and 282 pounds, he has an endless motor and unleashed along the defensive line, he can basically do whatever he wants.
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Simmons is the prototype for edge rushers in the college football world of 2023 – fast, twitchy, physical, relentless – and he’s going to be a huge addition to Texas’ defense. The Longhorns held off a serious push from LSU to land the five-star defensive end from Duncanville, Texas, and Simmons can be used everywhere, whether it’s coming off the edge, blitzing in different packages or dropping in coverage.
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FLIP ALERT
The four-star cornerback has been committed to Oklahoma since late March but recently Arizona State sent basically its entire coaching staff to meet with the Gilbert (Ariz.) Casteel so it’s something to watch. Maybe there’s nothing to worry about but maybe staying home is an option now?
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The four-star Miami legacy committed to the Hurricanes in October and it looked like his recruitment was wrapped up but UCF has not given up trying to flip Pickett and there does seem like some significant interest. Whether the Tampa (Fla.) Wharton defensive end winds up flipping is yet to be seen but the Knights are not giving up.
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There are some rumors that the high four-star defensive end from Lafayette (La.) Acadiana might not sign next week as LSU, Oklahoma, Tennessee and others pursue him. The Tigers and Sooners have been involved in his recruitment for a long time. If that happens and McKinley waits, things could get way more interesting heading toward February.
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PREDICTIONS
Someone in the top 10 of Texas will make a move: I don’t know who and I don’t know what but it’s hard to believe that the state of Texas will be this stable heading into signing day. The top 51 players in the Texas state rankings are all committed – of course something is going to happen unexpectedly. Maybe Terry Bussey waits to sign as he gets to know the Texas A&M staff better; maybe Filsaime flips. Come on, something has to give.
It actually might stay quiet across the Big 12: As of this writing, there are only 11 uncommitted prospects in the Rivals250 and the only one really expected to end up in the conference is four-star offensive lineman Eddy Pierre-Louis, who has Oklahoma high on his list heading into decision day. There will be pandemonium elsewhere but maybe – just maybe – it’s rather status quo in the Big 12.