MORE: Is Saban's reach into Louisiana overrated? | Week 9 Betting Man
Here at Betting Man, we are here to help. I promise. With this week’s mega-game of No. 3 LSU hosting No. 1 Alabama on tap, I decided to research the last 10 top 5 matchups and find the trend that will unlock the secret to picking a winner in Baton Rouge.
In the last four seasons, there have been exactly 10 top 5 regular-season matchups (league championship games included), and here is the data: Underdogs are 8-2 against the spread, home teams are 6-2 straight up (with two neutral site games) and lower-ranked teams are 6-4 straight up. Guess what? LSU is the underdog, LSU is the home team, and LSU is the lower-ranked team.
So there we go, people. Underdogs are 8-2! We’re all Purple and Gold and Death Valley and Coach O and Jambalaya.
Except … Alabama is responsible for the ‘2’ in the 8-2, as the Tide covered against LSU in 2015 and against Florida State last season.
The lesson, as always: Vegas never makes you comfortable.
This week, Pete Thamel from Yahoo Sports, Jeffrey Lee from AUSports.com and Rivals analyst Woody Wommack will join me and uncomfortably make selections on some games that should be great entertainment across the country.
Georgia (-9) at Kentucky, 3:30 ET, CBS
Kentucky has always had an underrated football fan base, and it gets to puff its collective chest out this week with the CBS cameras rolling and the SEC East title on the line. Unfortunately, the Cats have scratched together just 14, 14 and 15 points the last three weeks. That’s not going to be enough against this Georgia team.
Trocchi’s bet: Georgia to cover, $100
Thamel: Kentucky
Lee: Georgia
Wommack: Georgia
West Virginia (-2) at Texas, 3:30 ET, FOX
Texas has clearly performed better against ranked foes this season, going 3-0 against the spread (and straight up) against Oklahoma, TCU and USC while going 0-5 ATS against unranked teams. The Longhorns are unbeaten at home and will bring their ‘A’ game against No. 13 West Virginia.
Trocchi’s bet: Texas to cover, $100
Thamel: West Virginia
Lee: Texas
Wommack: West Virginia
Penn State (+10) at Michigan, 3:45 ET, ESPN
This spread seems right on the mark. After a crazy scoring blitz to start the year, Penn State has slowed to 27.3 points per game — still good but not great. Michigan’s defense will keep them under that average and win the game, but can it cover the 10-point spread? This one is a coin-flip and I would not touch it if not contractually obligated.
Trocchi’s bet: Penn State to cover, $50
Thamel: Michigan
Lee: Penn State
Wommack: Michigan
Notre Dame (-9.5) at Northwestern, 7:15 ET, ESPN
No one has come within 20 points of the Irish away from Notre Dame Stadium this year (though ND barely failed to cover vs. Navy). Northwestern owns a two-game win streak against Notre Dame (1995, 2014) and is surprisingly in control of the Big Ten West. ND has answered every challenge to date, and this is another it seems ready for.
Trocchi’s bet: Notre Dame to cover, $75
Thamel: Northwestern
Lee: Northwestern
Wommack: Northwestern
Alabama (-14) at LSU, 8 ET, CBS
This is obviously the best team this Alabama juggernaut has faced. Tua Tagovailoa’s wide receivers will not be streaking 10 yards behind this talented LSU secondary. Poor Alabama will have to turn to its stable of five-star running backs to balance the offense a bit. LSU is going to need some turnovers and some Tiger Stadium magic to keep this one close in the fourth quarter, and I feel like the Tigers have used a lot of magic already this year.
Trocchi’s bet: Alabama to cover, $50
Thamel: Alabama
Lee: Alabama
Wommack: LSU
Season Standings
Trocchi: 26-19
Rivals analysts: 26-19
Rivals publishers: 18-27
Yahoo Sports: 13-32
One more that I like: Georgia Tech (-6) at North Carolina
Georgia Tech’s spread offense has been crazy hit or miss this year, scoring 38 or more six times, yet scoring 21 or less three times. The Jackets will play two effective QBs against a UNC team that ranks 100th in the nation in rushing defense. My guess is this week, the Georgia Tech offense is a ‘hit’.
Trocchi's bet: Georgia Tech to cover, $100
Trocchi’s Season Stats:
27-26, minus $405
