If I Were A Betting Man: Week 9 picks
MORE: The biggest remaining games | Burning CFB questions
There is exactly one remaining undefeated team in college football … against the spread. And its not any of the actual undefeated teams in college football.
It is the team that threw the biggest GameDay party of the year last week, then backed it up with a rousing upset. Yes, meet your Washington State Cougars, winners of all seven games against the spread in 2018 (with a surprising 6-1 record overall).
Wazzu has had a couple of close calls in the betting world, beating San Jose State 31-0 as 30-point favorites and losing to USC 39-36 while getting 4.5 points. Other than that, though, Mike Leach’s squad has covered fairly comfortably.
And this isn’t a new thing, as Washington State is third in the nation over the last four seasons against the spread at 30-16. Only Iowa State and Temple have better ATS records during that frame. With Washington State on the docket below again this week, we should all take that trend into consideration.
The guest pickers this week are led by Editorial Manager Gary Mondello, who is coming off the bench for Yahoo Sports to give them a spark. Chris Clark from GamecockCentral.com will weigh in with his insights as South Carolina has played or will play Georgia, Florida and Clemson this season. And from the Rivals’ analyst team, Midwest expert Josh Helmholdt will try to nail the two Big Ten games at a minimum and keep the analyst team in first place.
CLEMSON (-17) AT FLORIDA STATE, NOON ET, ABC
As recently as two years ago, the concept of Florida State getting 17 points at home would be laughable. In fact, according to TeamRankings.com’s database which dates back to 1996, this is the biggest home dog the Noles have been. And it still doesn’t seem like enough. The Noles have been playing better of late, but Clemson seems to have hit another gear once all the Kelly Bryant talk subsided and its defensive line is going to have a field day.
Trocchi’s bet: Clemson to cover, $50
Mondello: Florida State
Clark: Clemson
Helmholdt: Florida State
WISCONSIN (-6.5) AT NORTHWESTERN, NOON ET, FOX
Northwestern leads the Badgers (and Iowa and Purdue) by half a game in the Big Ten West at 4-1, but it hasn’t exactly been lighting the world on fire with an escape-job home win over Nebraska and a three-point win at Rutgers the last two weeks. Wisconsin flopped in its big test against Michigan, but otherwise has been solid since the early BYU slip-up.
Trocchi’s bet: Wisconsin to cover, $125
Mondello: Wisconsin
Clark: Wisconsin
Helmholdt: Wisconsin
FLORIDA (+7) VS. GEORGIA AT JACKSONVILLE, 3:30 ET, CBS
The Gators are a spiffy 6-1 against the spread this season, and Georgia has had pretty much nothing but negative press since getting smacked by LSU two weeks ago. Florida’s better than last year, but let’s not forget the Bulldogs won this game 42-7 last year. There hasn’t been a 35-point change since last season.
Trocchi’s bet: Georgia to cover, $100
Mondello: Florida
Clark: Georgia
Helmholdt: Georgia
IOWA (+6.5) AT PENN STATE, 3:30 ET, ESPN
Like Florida, Iowa sports a 6-1 record against the spread and will bring one of the top defenses in the nation to Happy Valley. A close examination of Penn State’s schedule reveals a team that has played very few complete games. The Lions may be a bit overrated at this point.
Trocchi’s bet: Iowa to cover, $100
Mondello: Penn State
Clark: Penn State
Helmholdt: Iowa
WASHINGTON STATE (+3) AT STANFORD, 7 ET
I’m a big believer in the letdown spot, and this certainly qualifies after Washington State’s emotional toppling of Oregon last week. But Stanford, like Penn State, doesn’t have a whole lot of impressive performances on the docket this year. I’m banking on Washington State continuing its unbeaten run against the spread.
Trocchi’s bet: Washington State to cover, $50
Mondello: Washington State
Clark: Washington State
Helmholdt: Washington State
| Clemson-FSU | Wisconsin-N'western | Florida-Georgia | Iowa-Penn St. | Wazzu-Stanford | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Trocchi |
Clemson |
Wisconsin |
Georgia |
Iowa |
Wazzu |
|
Mondello |
FSU |
Wisconsin |
Florida |
Penn St. |
Wazzu |
|
Clark |
Clemson |
Wisconsin |
Georgia |
Penn St. |
Wazzu |
|
Helmholdt |
FSU |
Wisconsin |
Georgia |
Iowa |
Wazzu |
Season Standings
Rivals analysts: 23-17
Trocchi: 22-18
Rivals publishers: 15-25
Yahoo Sports: 12-28
One more that I like: Texas A&M (+2.5) at Mississippi State
How can Texas A&M, which has not lost to anyone but Clemson and Alabama, be a dog against a team that is 1-3 and is averaging fewer than 10 points a game in SEC play? I already know I’m getting this wrong since I am 1-6 in this space this year, but seriously -- what is up with this line?
The bet: Texas A&M to cover, $250
Trocchi’s Season Stats:
23-24, minus $330