Rivals national recruiting analyst Greg Smith is joined by Josh Henscheke of MaizeAndBlueReview.com, Steve Marik of InsideNebraska.com and Doug Bucshon of OrangeAndBlueNews.com to tackle three topics and determine whether they believe each statement is FACT or FICTION.
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1. It’s time to panic about Michigan’s 2025 recruiting.
Henschke: FICTION. Michigan has always been a program that has finished December strong when it comes to rounding out its classes. Last cycle, a strong summer saw the Wolverines practically fill up their entire class in a couple of months and didn’t see much action until around signing day. While you’d like to see more momentum on the recruiting trail, you’re essentially starting over from scratch despite some familiarity in Ann Arbor with Sherrone Moore taking over and replacing multiple on and off-field staff members. It feels like the Wolverines just need one commitment to start opening up the floodgates to relieve some fears.
Smith: FICTION. This year’s recruiting class has all the makings of a late-cycle flurry for the Wolverines. It doesn’t always feel like it but this is the first year running the entire program for coach Sherrone Moore. Because of him being on staff previously, there is some feeling that he should have hit the ground running a bit more with recruiting.
I’d disagree with that and will certainly allow him more time to get his feet underneath him on the trail. He’s adjusting the recruiting board to the needs of his program. That takes time. Recruits are going to take time to feel out this new staff before making the decision to be all-in on Michigan now.
Let’s revisit this after the regular season.
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2. Fellow true freshman QB Daniel Kaelin is pushing Dylan Raiola during spring ball.
Marik: FACT. Lost in the Dylan Raiola five-star mega hype is the fact Danny Kaelin wasn’t exactly a slouch of a quarterback recruit.
The former three-star was an Elite 11 finalist last summer, just like Raiola was, and won the accuracy challenge during the event. Kaelin also scored well in the S2 test that quarterbacks take to measure processing speed, reaction time and the ability to absorb information and answer quickly under pressure.
Kaelin ran a college-style offense at Bellevue (Neb.) West, full of run-pass options, and has FBS size at 6-foot-3, 210 pounds.
Will he overtake Raiola as the favorite to win the starting job this fall? Probably not. Raiola’s arm talent and ceiling are simply at a higher level at this point. But can Kaelin push Raiola and possibly jump returning starter Heinrich Haarberg as the No. 2? Absolutely.
Smith: FICTION. This one is a matter of semantics. Do I think that Kaelin has already shown to be better than expected at this stage of spring football? Yes. Many seem to have forgotten that Kaelin was an Elite 11 finalist. The former Bellevue West star ran a prolific high school offense that has allowed him to hit the ground running in college so far.
The problem for Kaelin is that it’s going to be a huge climb to truly challenge Raiola. The time and money investment in landing the legacy prospect was significant. That part shouldn’t be overlooked even if the coaches would never admit it.
I do think that Kaelin will push Haarberg, the returning starter, for the No. 2 spot. That’s nothing to brush off and would also be a nice accomplishment for the true freshman.
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3. Illinois must land one of the two in-state tight ends in the 2026 cycle.
Bucshon: FACT. "Must" is a strong word and one or two players won't make or break a recruiting class. While a play-making tight end can change an offense, it's not the same as missing on a top quarterback or an elite pass rusher. But that doesn't tell the entire story with JC Anderson and Mack Sutter.
While he's made some strides, Bret Bielema doesn't yet have recruiting rolling, particularly in the Illini's own backyard. Allowing a blueblood to poach nearby stars who both live less than two hours from the Illinois campus would be a punch to the gut. Appearance matters in recruiting. Illinois can send a message by protecting its turf, or it can be reminded that it's a second thought for the top prospects. They are pivotal recruitments. Illinois needs to win one of them.
Smith: FACT. The Bret Bielema era at Illinois has been up and down so far. The biggest hope for the program taking steps toward really competing in the conference is to land in-state talent. Illinois is pumping out high-level talent on a yearly basis that the Illini are never in contention to land. If that changes with one of these two tight ends that would be massive for perception.
While tight end isn’t necessarily a premium position it is a position that can change how teams can defend you. So landing an impact, playmaking tight end is helpful in today’s college football. Anderson and Sutter being so close to campus also makes landing one vital for the Illini.
