Army Bowl: Top stories to follow as the week unfolds

The 18th edition of the U.S. Army All-American Bowl will take place Jan. 6 at San Antonio’s Alamodome, and this year a majority of the prospects participating are already signed to their college programs following the inaugural Early Signing Period in December. Here are the storylines to follow as the Army Bowl week unfolds.

A total of 22 prospects on the Army Bowl roster remain uncommitted and unsigned. An additional three prospects are committed, but did not sign in the early period. The majority of those unsigned prospects plan to take their recruitments out past the Army Bowl, but to start the week there are five who are expected to announce their decisions during the Jan. 6 telecast. They are five-star California wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown, five-star Florida cornerback Brendan Radley-Hiles, California offensive guard Chris Murray, Alabama athlete Harold Joiner and Louisville wide receiver Rondale Moore.

Much of the attention will be focused on the two five-stars expected to announce this week. St. Brown, the No. 3 ranked prospect in the Rivals100, is the highest ranked unsigned player remaining in the 2018 class. He announced a top three of Notre Dame, Stanford and USC on Christmas Day. USC is the odds-on favorite, but he has brothers who attend both Notre Dame and Stanford. Radley-Hiles, meanwhile, is a former Nebraska commit who decommitted in the midst of the Cornhusker’s coaching transition. He officially visited Oklahoma in October and the Sooners look strong here, but new head coaches at Florida State and UCLA are trying to lure Radley-Hiles their way.

Clemson quarterback signee Trevor Lawrence is looking to become the first prospect since Da’Shawn Hand in 2014 to go wire-to-wire as the No. 1 overall player in a class, and with No. 2 Justin Fields not expected to play during the bowl season there are few whose ability to overtake Lawrence is in the realm of possibility. That competition will all make their cases in San Antonio, however, as the next 13 players in the Rivals100 behind Lawrence and Fields are on the Army Bowl roster.

The only player who looks capable of unseating Lawrence as No. 1 is Lawrence himself. A poor performance in San Antonio, though, would have to be considered in the context of: Does it tell us something different about who Lawrence will be in college, or is it simply an anomaly that has little or no bearing on his college prospects? However, Lawrence has been put through the paces throughout his prep career and rarely, if ever, faltered. Quarterbacks have won the last two Army Bowl MVP trophies, and expectations will be for Lawrence to make it three years in a row.

There are seven three-star rated prospects, not counting specialists, on the 2018 Army Bowl roster: three on the East squad and four on the West squad. Defensive tackle is the position that features the most three-stars, consisting of 5.7 Rivals Rated Clemson signee Josh Belk, 5.6 Rivals Rated Tyler Manoa and 5.5 Rivals Rated Iowa signee Tyler Linderbaum. Outside of specialists, Linderbaum is the lowest rated prospect in the game. He held just one other FBS offer when he committed to Iowa last May, so he is the definition of a sleeper coming into Army Bowl week.

Midwest offensive tackles Darrian Kinnard and Jalen Mayfield, who are signed with Kentucky and Michigan, respectively, sit just outside the four-star range as 5.7 Rivals Rated prospects and will have a chance to make their case for a bump. 5.6 Rivals Rated Washington State wide receiver signee Rodrick Fisher and 5.6 Rivals Rated wide receiver Rondale Moore are the other three star non-specialists coming into Army Bowl week.

With invitations to the post-senior season all-star games going out earlier and earlier every, there is an inevitability of some selected players being injured during their senior seasons. Those who are injured fall into three categories as it relates to the Army Bowl: those who will not play, those who might play and those who plan to play.

Among those who were selected but will definitely not be playing are Ohio State wide receiver signee Kamryn Babb, NC State linebacker signee Payton Wilson and Georgia signees Azeez Ojulari and Zamir White, all of whom are rehabilitating ACL injuries. Others, however, missed all or portions of their senior seasons but plan to play. That group includes Georgia tight end signee Luke Ford (shoulder) and Notre Dame safety signee Derrik Allen (hand). How those players fare coming off injury will be watched closely.

While there is plenty of discussion about which prospects will commit during all-star games or in the weeks after, and which school they will choose, most discussion on message boards, social media and on-site during all-star game season centers around who is not living up to expectations and who is exceeding those expectations. In the final update of the 2017 Rivals100 six players secured five-star status following all-star game performances, while two prospects lost their fifth stars.

There are off-season events where FBS prospects are able to go rep-after-rep against other FBS prospects, but they do not involve players engaging in full-contact football. You get that real football in-season, but FBS prospects are rarely going against other FBS prospects. Only in these post-season all-star games do you get full football where FBS prospects are going against a field full of their peers. So, of all the evaluation opportunities we have during a prospect’s prep career, these all-star games are the most complete.