Three-Point Stance: Most overrated, underrated teams

Rivals.com National Recruiting Director Mike Farrell’s thought-provoking Three-Point Stance is here with the most overrated and underrated teams in the country heading into the season, 10 key things to watch for this year and quick prediction of the big game.

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FARRELL 50: Nos. 6-10 | 11-15 | 16-20 | 21-25 | 26-30 | 31-35 | 36-40 | 41-45 | 46-50

The season is about to kickoff for real this weekend so let’s take a look at the AP Top 25 and see which teams appear to be overvalued this early in the season and which are being slept on. We start with the overrated:

Clemson – The Tigers lost their franchise quarterback and go-to receiver among other key players from last year’s title team and while there is still a ton of talent on the roster, I don’t see them as the No. 5 team in the country. Perhaps 10-15 range or even as high as No. 9, but top five? That seems like a stretch with some big question marks surrounding the quarterback and running game.

Penn State – The Nittany Lions are ranked No. 6 in the country and behind only Ohio State (No. 2) in the Big Ten. And while Penn State has a very good year, I don’t see it pushing for a playoff spot like it did last year (and got robbed). I’m thinking it is more in the 12-16 range. Quarterback Trace McSorley and Saquon Barkley are back, the offensive line should be better and the defense is solid, but can the Nittany Lions afford a key injury or two? I’m not sure the depth is there yet if they get unlucky with injuries and playing in the toughest division in football doesn’t help either.

Oklahoma – The Sooners can make a run at the Big 12 title but that doesn’t mean they belong at No. 7 overall. I have them falling short of winning their conference and if that happens, they should be out of the top 10. Replacing two NFL running backs and a dominant receiver is tough enough, but can the defense take the next step?

Michigan – Jim Harbaugh gets a ton of respect and Don Brown does as well, but No. 11 in the country for a team with so many losses? That’s heady stuff. There is a lot of young talent and the Wolverines are probably a year away from a serious run at the national title, but this year I’d have them down in the 16-20 range at best.

LSU – The Tigers check in at No. 13 overall behind Alabama and Auburn in the SEC West and that’s where they will finish. However, I don’t see them as a top 15 team in the preseason. Perhaps 16-20 range but 13 is pushing it without any proof the offense will improve and some key defensive losses.

Oklahoma State – The Cowboys check in at No. 10 and behind Oklahoma for Big 12 schools. That’s not so bad, especially with the questions on defense. But as a playoff pick, they should be closer to the No. 4-5 range heading into the season. It won’t matter however if they can run the table.

Georgia – I have the Dawgs winning the SEC East, so being ranked at No. 15 is too low for me. I’d have them near No. 10 or No. 9 preseason even with all they have to prove. The defense will be solid, they have elite running backs and an emerging quarterback. Can the receivers and offensive line step up? I think they can.

Miami – The ‘Canes are No. 18 and still have a lot to prove to make people believe they can be relevant on a national scale again, but with that young and emerging defense and some excellent offensive playmakers, it could come down to quarterback play. And I, for one, believe in Mark Richt and his offensive system to push Miami to Top 10 status.

South Florida – Can USF run the table in the AAC? With quarterback Quinton Flowers, it has a chance. It is coming off an 11-win season and while it didn’t look great in the opener, that’s a nice wakeup call and it will push toward the top 15 before all is said and done.

Texas – What? The Longhorns are No. 23 in the country coming off losing season after losing season and have a new head coach? How on earth could they be underrated right now? They will surprise many this season and end up in the Top 20 or so by season’s end. Call it a hunch, but the young talent on defense will come together and the offensive improvement under Tom Herman will be significant.

A team with an early loss will make the playoff – The FSU-Alabama loser will still be there to play for it all.

The year of the quarterback could be overshadowed – It could be overshadowed by the running backs. There is a great group led by Saquon Barkley, Derrius Guice, Nick Chubb, Sony Michel, Royce Freeman, Ronald Jones II, Bo Scarbrough, Kamryn Pettway and others. Cam Akers will join the elite as well. In his freshman year, Akers will be mentioned among the best in the country at Florida State.

The Big Ten will be the best conference – Sorry ACC fans, but the Big Ten has better balance overall. And no I’m not comparing the worst team in the conference to worst team in the ACC, it’s about the guys at the top and Ohio State, Wisconsin, Penn State, Michigan and Northwestern is a stronger five than Florida State, Clemson, Louisville, Miami and Virginia Tech.

The freaks are along the defensive line – Christian Wilkins, Harold Landry, Ed Oliver, Dexter Lawrence, Arden Key, Josh Sweat, Rashan Gary and others. These are all athletic freaks who will be making highlights most weekends.

Heisman snub from FSU again – Dalvin Cook got robbed a couple years in a row with no invite to New York City and Derwin James will suffer the same fate this year. He’s going to have a better year than Jabrill Peppers did last year but he won’t be invited to the ceremony.

The best player you’ve never heard of is – SMU wide receiver Courtland Sutton who could shoot up the charts like Corey Davis did last year at Western Michigan. He’s big, he’s fast and he can take over games.

Elite offensive linemen everywhere – Last year the elite offensive linemen had rough seasons as hyped guys such as Cam Robinson, Ethan Pocic, Dan Feeney, Roderick Johnson, Zach Banner and others were outplayed and drafted later than small school guys. This year, Connor Williams from Texas leads a strong group nationally that includes Mike McGlinchey and Quenton Nelson (Notre Dame), Orlando Brown (Oklahoma), Martinas Rankin (Mississippi State), Mitch Hyatt (Clemson), Braden Smith (Auburn) and others. I don’t expect too many small school guys to surpass this group.

Someone unexpected will win the Heisman – I picked J.T. Barrett and all the usual names such as Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield, Lamar Jackson, Saquon Barkley and Jake Browning are the odds-on favorites. That means someone outside of that group will surprise everyone and win it.

The hottest seats still belong to – Kevin Sumlin at Texas A&M and Brian Kelly at Notre Dame when talking about big-time programs. I doubt either survives but each will leave behind a team with plenty of talent for whomever takes over.

Not much room for my last point so here goes – Alabama wins the big opener by a 34-17 score over FSU.