Three-Point Stance: Houston's future, A&M's secondary, Texas' gamble
Rivals national recruiting analyst Nick Harris takes a look at Houston's bright future, Texas A&M's potential in the secondary in the 2023 class and how Texas is rolling the dice in regards to Arch Manning.
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1. The time is now for Houston to take the next step in recruiting.
Houston is on the cusp of finally making its long-awaited jump to the Big 12 in the coming years. That jump would give the Cougars the opportunity to take advantage of the fertile recruiting ground that is the state of Texas in a way that the Cougars haven't been able to do for much of the last three decades.
Add in the fact that Cougars head coach Dana Holgorsen has his squad primed for an AAC championship run and a potential New Year's six bid in 2022 and you can start to see the stars aligning for a program that has mostly been limited to consistent bowl game appearances and the occasional 10-win season.
The new Big 12 is anybody's to take command of, and logic would tell you that there will be a team from the state of Texas that makes itself a perennial contender until the next major realignment. I see Houston as the team with the potential to do the most damage with the advantages that it has going in. The greater Houston area has nothing but talent spread far and wide, and the Cougars have had success recruiting other areas of the state. Now they will have a Power Five brand appeal.
Houston has a solid starting spot in the 2023 class with its lone commit, Jakoby Banks, and is fresh off landing a few big prospects in the 2022 class, most notably Matthew Golden. If the Cougars can build off that success in the 2023 class and win on the field in the fall, we are looking at an immediate contender for a championship in the new-look Big 12.
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2. Texas A&M is on the cusp of landing a stellar secondary.
Texas A&M is once again making headlines in recruiting after landing two of the best defensive backs in the country last week: four-star Jayvon Thomas and four-star Bravion Rogers.
While Thomas was one that the Aggies were expected to win, landing Rogers just 10 days after offering came as a big surprise and opened up the door for a potentially massive class in the secondary.
Defensive backs coach TJ Rushing has done solid work in putting the Aggies in a good position with Javien Toviano, Malik Muhammad and Caleb Presley, to name a few, one year after landing Jacoby Matthews, Denver Harris, Bryce Anderson and more.
If Rushing and Jimbo Fisher can close in the 2023 class with a similar effort, the Aggies will have one of the highest-potential secondaries in the country.
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3. It really is Arch Manning or bust for Texas in the 2023 class.
While recruiting classes in the region are starting to take shape (i.e. Texas A&M, Arkansas, Baylor, etc.) Texas has remained relatively quiet so far in the 2023 class.
That's no knock on the job Texas has done so far, as the Longhorns remain squarely in the mix for most of its top targets. But one key target could provide as the ultra-spark or the biggest downfall for the Longhorns: Arch Manning.
Let's look at what a commitment from Manning could mean for Texas. The Longhorns would immediately jump way out front to land both Rueben Owens and Johntay Cook, who says there's an "80% chance" that all three end up at the same school. Those two – along with any other of the Longhorns' top targets that would be enticed by the addition of Manning – make the potential for the 2023 class sky-high. Its ceiling is a top-three class when it's all said and done in 2023.
Now let's look at what it could mean for Texas if Manning decides to take his talents elsewhere. Texas would then need to pivot and find another quarterback target in a class where the signal-caller talent is not as strong as it has been in previous classes within state borders.
Additionally, prospects such as Cook and Owens would be tougher to bring in, which would make it even more difficult to build a class around any particular star player. The floor would be a class in the 15 to 20 range, something that Steve Sarkisian and his staff do not need amid a rebuild.
Classes are developing around the country, and the Longhorns are waiting to add the biggest piece of all. But the question has to remain: What if they don't?