Three-Point Stance: Florida, Miami, Big Ten win totals, Midwest risers
Rivals national recruiting analyst Clint Cosgrove has thoughts on the recruiting surge at Florida and Miami, team win totals in the Big Ten and Midwest prospects that could be next in line for a four-star bump.
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1. Florida and Miami sizzling this summer
Florida entered the summer with little recruiting momentum. It's class was not highly ranked and only had four commits in total. Things began to change on on Jun. 20 with the commitment of offensive lineman Knijeah Harris and the Gators have been on fire since.
Since Harris' commitment, Florida has added 15 additional commitments to its 2023 class with all but two of them being four-star prospects. The Gators aren't done yet and remain in play for a number of the nation's top prospects, including five-star corner Cormani McClain. Should McClain choose Gainesville as his landing spot, he would likely end up being the crown jewel of an already impressive Florida class.
It may have taken a minute for Billy Napier and staff to catch fire on the recruiting trail, but they now have all kinds of momentum and I expect plenty more fireworks before this class signs.
Like Florida, Miami got off to a slow start on the recruiting trail. Since mid-June, Mario Cristobal's program has added 13 commitments with two coming from five-star standouts Francis Mauigoa and Jaden Wayne. The Hurricanes are in on a number of the nation's top remaining uncommitted prospects and their recruiting battles against the fellow in-state Gators could determine who wins the battle of recruiting supremacy in the Sunshine State.
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2. Big Ten East win total picks
Indiana 3.5 - Over - The Hoosiers are coming off a dismal season in which they fell way short of preseason expectations. That being said, things are not as bad as they appeared in Bloomington last season. This is a well-coached team that has recruited better than the historical clip in recent years and I believe the Hoosiers find a way to pull out four games at the minimum this season.
Rutgers 4 - Under - There are few guarantees on the Scarlet Knights' schedule that consists of two non-conference road games against Boston College and Temple along with an unfavorable conference schedule with Ohio State, Minnesota, Michigan State and Maryland on the road. I see four wins being the ceiling here.
Maryland 6 - Under - The Terrapins get a favorable schedule which could very likely see them start 3-0, but after that it gets a little dicey with a handful of games that are tossups or unlikely wins. The offense proved capable of lighting up the scoreboard under Taulia Tagovailoa last season, but they are going to need more consistency out of the run game and the defense to make more than six happen. I would probably stay away from this total, but I see their chances of winning less than seven being more likely than winning seven or more.
Michigan State 7.5- Over - Things have been steadily trending upward since Mel Tucker's arrival in East Lansing. Although the Spartans don't have the conference's most favorable schedule, they do have veterans at key positions, playmakers on offense, a solid defense and strong coaching staff. Combine that with a roster of young talent and I see the road to eight wins more likely than not.
Penn State 8.5 - Under - While I see eight games likely here, there isn't enough for me to go all in on the Nittany Lions winning nine or more. Penn State, unlike a number of teams in the Big Ten, doesn't get any help from a non-conference schedule that includes a potentially under-rated Auburn team on the road. Should James Franklin and company beat Auburn on the road, all bets are off and there is no telling how good Penn State could end up.
Michigan 9.5 - Over - A non-conference schedule likely to produce three easy wins, combined with a Big Ten slate that sees Michigan State and Penn State at home, and completely avoids Wisconsin, Minnesota and Purdue is extremely favorable. There are some holes to fill after last season's playoff run, but I see 10 games more likely than nine or less here.
Ohio State 11- Under - I do believe Ohio State is likely to win 11 games making this pick a push. While the Buckeyes are well coached and have the most talent in the Big Ten, there are too many variables for me to pick any team to go over 11 wins. Injuries, fluke games and the turnover/special teams battle leave few things certain at the college level. I take the under here because I see it more likely than Ohio State having a perfect season.
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3. Next three up for four-stars in the Midwest
Last week we discussed 2023 recruits that just missed the cut for four-star status during our latest rankings release. I named Minnesota commit Darius Taylor as the next man up from the Midwest. In addition to Taylor, I want to highlight two additional names that you can expect to receive serious consideration for the lofty four-star honor come Rivals' next rankings release.
Joe Otting - The Notre Dame offensive line commit was just on the brink of receiving his fourth star during our last set of rankings meetings and it was basically splitting hairs when it came down to which offensive lineman made the cut. We've seen a tremendous amount of growth out of Otting over the past year and his senior performance will likely be the deciding factor as to where he is slotted come the next rankings release.
Kahlil Tate - Tate made his pledge to the Hawkeyes on July 12 and with Iowa's great tradition in the secondary, the Chicago Kenwood standout will have plenty of opportunities for success at the next level. There is little question as to whether Tate has the size, skill and athleticism to be a standout in the Big Ten and with a great senior campaign, he will have a great chance to earn a coveted fourth star.