Three-Point Stance: Expanded playoff, teams that waste talent

Rivals.com National Recruiting Director Mike Farrell’s Three-Point Stance is here with some thoughts on whether the expanded playoff will actually help parity in college football, a look at the programs that will benefit the most from the expanded playoff and the teams that need to shake the reputation of squandering talent.

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I like the expanded playoff idea. I prefer an eight-team solution but I’ll certainly take 12. That’s fine with me. It means fewer player opts outs, more meaningful college football games and even more excitement in December and January. That’s all great news.

Yet expanding the playoff won't change a thing. Why? Because in most years the team that wins it all is so dominant that an extra game won’t stop them from winning the title. Do you think an extra game against the Cincinnati-Georgia winner would have stopped or slowed Alabama down last season? No way. Would a game against the Wisconsin-Florida winner have done anything to stop LSU in 2019? Not a chance.

This isn’t March Madness where a plucky mid-major can pull multiple upsets with two hot players over higher-ranked teams. We are talking about 85-man rosters with depth at some levels that simply cannot be matched. Alabama, Clemson and others have five-stars riding the bench and, in the end, roster talent will always win out. Those who are comparing this expanded College Football Playoff proposal to basketball in any way are just wrong.

What’s my solution for parity? I don’t have one, honestly. The recruiting advantages in the Southeast are too strong, the academic differences between some universities is too large and the constant re-loading by power programs will not stop anytime soon. Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, Oklahoma and likely one other SEC team will constantly be the national title contenders and winners. The playoff is great and expanding it is a nice idea, but it won’t change one thing.

Even if expanding the playoff won't impact the top of the college football hierarchy, it will still help certain programs. The playoff exposure will help these programs in recruiting and roster development. And, heck, maybe one of them will become the next Clemson. Here are a few programs I think will definitely benefit from a 12-team playoff format.

Notre Dame – The Irish are up against it in recruiting because of academic restrictions and geographical disadvantage but not being in a conference could help them. They aren’t tied down by a weak conference schedule, they can chart their own path to the playoff and likely host a cold weather home game in December some years. They will never get a bye without a conference affiliation but the 12-team format means more playoff appearances and more exposure (if that’s possible) for Notre Dame.

Oregon – Someone from the Pac-12 will emerge once the playoff is expanded and the Ducks are the most likely candidate. They would have made the playoff in 2019 and, possibly, last year if a full season had been played. The way Mario Cristobal is recruiting the Ducks are bound to be in the playoff here and there which will help recruiting.

Texas A&M – The Aggies are currently blocked by Alabama and perhaps LSU if the Tigers put together all their talent like they did in 2019. But with playoff expansion the Aggies would now have a shot even with a loss to the Tide. That would bring a bigger in-state advantage in recruiting and we all know Jimbo Fisher can build a roster when he is focused.

Florida – The Gators made a run last year and gave Alabama trouble but they have the same problem many in the SEC have – Nick Saban. With six extra slots up for grab without winning a conference title, the Gators can come out of the SEC East and still make the playoff even if they can’t get past Alabama.

Georgia – UGA actually made the playoff and won the SEC with Nick Saban around which is not easy but then fell to Alabama in the title game in the 2017 season. So it has the same Alabama problem everyone has but last year it would have made the playoff and the same is true in 2018 and 2019. Constant playoff appearances would help lessen the pressure of not winning it all since 1980.

Texas – Even if the Longhorns can’t win the Big 12, and it doesn’t look like they will for a bit, they can still make the playoff as the No. 2 team in the Big 12. This would provide a little momentum in the recruiting department and might help them get over the Oklahoma hump they badly need to get over.

USC – The Trojans have the talent but they play down to the competition in the Pac-12. With this expansion, even if USC finishes second in the conference, it has a chance at a lower berth. And it needs to win something to continue to turn recruiting around.

Wisconsin – The Badgers are constantly in the hunt for the Big Ten West but have little chance of the playoff because of Ohio State in the East. Now they can lose in the title game every so often and still make the playoff. Is that bad to say?

Group of Five – Finally a Group of Five team will make the playoff so we can see if they get annihilated or can compete. My guess is annihilation but at least if they win there won’t be the excuse that the other team didn’t care.

There was a big debate in my Twitter feed about which programs squander the most talent after I posted my top 10. My top five was Georgia, USC, Florida, Texas A&M and Texas but some people made a solid point about the Gators not belonging and felt Michigan, Miami or Tennessee would be better choices. Here’s my explanation for each and where I was wrong after further review.

1. Georgia – I laid this out on Twitter. The average ranking per year over the 20 years of Rivals.com recruiting classes is 6.4 and the Bulldogs still haven't won a national title and haven’t won the SEC nearly enough based on those numbers. This really isn’t a debate. Fans can shape it any way they like, and Georgia has played for a national title recently, but with near top-five recruiting classes every year more success is warranted. Will UGA win it all under Kirby Smart? I believe it will, but until it does, it’s a rough stat to look at.

2. USC – The Trojans are trickier than UGA because they have won a national title more recently and they got hammered with NCAA scholarship reductions due to the Reggie Bush scandal. But we all know the level at which USC recruits, save for one awful year under Clay Helton, and it produces a ton of NFL talent. Yet the Trojans still can’t even consistently win in the weak Pac-12. USC is 18-13 over the last three seasons and that’s not good at all.

3. Florida – This was an interesting one and I may be wrong here. The Gators last won an SEC title in 2008 but they have won a couple of national titles in the last 20 years. Under Urban Meyer they recruited at an elite level but since Dan Mullen has taken over it’s up and down. The Gators have finished Nos. 17, 8, 7 and 11 in the nation in recruiting since 2018 under Mullen and have gone 29-9 so that’s probably on par with the recruiting results. Perhaps the fans are right and I should replace Florida with Miami or Michigan here. I admit I am wrong.

4. Texas A&M – The Aggies could make a case for No. 1 but I feel it’s more egregious that UGA hasn’t broken through more and what USC isn’t doing with both of their in-state recruiting advantages. Texas A&M has consistently been in the top 20 in recruiting with memorable finishes in the top 10 in 2003, 2005, 2014, 2015, 2017, 2019, 2020 and 2021 and guess how many conference titles they Aggies have won since Rivals.com started? None. The last conference title for the Aggies was in 1998 when they won the Big 12. Current recruits weren’t even born yet. Like Georgia, I think they will break through and win a national title soon, but until they do this isn’t a good look.

5. Texas – Why are the Longhorns behind Texas A&M? Because they’ve won things at least. They won a national title and played for another since Rivals.com started in 2002 and won the Big 12 in 2009. That’s certainly not great, as they have been recruiting well, very well at times, with disappointing results. Remember when Texas was “back” after a huge win over Notre Dame and a Sugar Bowl win over Georgia? Well the Horns aren’t back and numerous top five recruiting finishes (five since 2010) haven’t led to a whole lot. Maybe things will change under Steve Sarkisian.