SEC spotlight: Farrell's title pick, bold predictions
Football season is finally upon us and with that it’s time to break down each Power Five conference and make some bold predictions. Today we continue with the SEC.
SEC East Champ: Georgia. Not an easy call between Georgia and Florida, but I am going with the Dawgs because of their 1-2 punch at running back, expected improvement from quarterback Jacob Eason and a defense that will be solid. The Florida quarterback question mark and lack of offensive production scares me off from picking them.
SEC West Champ: Alabama. I’m not going against the grain here. Even if Florida State upsets the Crimson Tide in week one, Nick Saban's team can rebound and win the SEC. Quarterback Jalen Hurts will have a tougher time this season as teams figure him out, but the depth at numerous positions is ridiculous as usual and some elite playmakers who have been waiting for their chance will emerge. Auburn gives them a run for their money, but I’ll stick with ‘Bama.
SEC Champion: Alabama. Another SEC title game drubbing based on what I can tell.
Coach of the Year: Kirby Smart, Georgia. Saban won it last year, so they won’t give it to him again, I don’t see a team surprising enough to have their coach steal it away and for Georgia to win the SEC East in year two under Smart is impressive enough for him to earn it.
Hot Seat City: Kevin Sumlin, Texas A&M. Sumlin could be gone by mid-season if things don’t start well for the Aggies. If he doesn’t win the SEC West or at least make an amazing push for it, it’s clear his head is on the chopping block. There are others – Butch Jones, Gus Malzahn, Bret Bielema – who have to avoid disastrous seasons to stay off the list as well.
Biggest Surprise: Missouri. The Tigers are projected to finish last in the East but I can see them pushing towards the middle. Another step forward by quarterback Drew Lock, another strong season by Damarea Crockett and some depth at wide receiver will help the offense. The defense needs to improve, especially tackling and staying healthy, and if it can I could see them jumping past Vanderbilt, Kentucky and maybe even South Carolina.
Biggest Disappointment: LSU. The roster has a ton of talent. My offensive MVP and best NFL Draft prospect are both from LSU, but it all comes down to quarterback play again and I’m not sold on Danny Etling. I am a big fan of new offensive coordinator Matt Canada and I think in a year or so the offense will be more balanced, but this year they finish third in the SEC West and that’s a disappointment for first-year head coach Ed Orgeron.
As Expected: Arkansas. I expect Arkansas to look like world beaters in a few games, pull an upset or two and lose badly to a few teams and keep everyone scratching their heads. That’s the way it’s been under Bielema as everyone is expecting him to break through, but it will be more of the same this season.
A Year Away: Texas A&M. What? Sumlin will likely be fired, so who knows what will come of recruiting for 2018 and 2019 until they find a new coach. But the roster talent is there, it has an elite quarterback in Kellen Mond to build around and it will make a huge splash with the new hire. If there is a sleeping giant in the SEC West, it’s A&M with a big-time coach.
Building for the Future: Georgia. Alabama would be the easy answer here as we all know they will likely finish in the top five in recruiting for 2018 and possibly finish on top. But Georgia is right behind them with a 3.75 average star ranking and it is recruiting better locally now that at the start of the cycle. If a team from the East is going to unseat Alabama, Georgia is the most likely team to do so down the line.
Conference Offensive MVP: Derrius Guice, LSU. The drop off from Leonard Fournette to Guice is not a big one and in a run-heavy offense, he could approach 2,000 yards this season if he stays healthy. LSU is my pick for disappointment, but Guice is not part of that.
Conference Defensive MVP: Minkah Fitzpatrick, Alabama. Fitzpatrick is always around the football, he’s gotten better in coverage each year and he’s now a defensive leader for a team pushing for another national title. This kid has always been special, but I never expected him to be this elite this early.
Best NFL Prospect: Arden Key, LSU. A shoulder injury could cost him a game or two this season, but if he has the season many expect, he will be that hybrid guy that goes in the top 10 of the NFL Draft every year. That is assuming the shoulder injury doesn’t drop him a bit in the eyes of scouts.
True Freshman of the Year: Jerry Jeudy, Alabama. He was dominant in the spring, he’s showing the ball skills of an NFL player and he could be the next in line from Florida, joining Amari Cooper and Calvin Ridley as absolute stars at Alabama.
Breakout Player: Derrick Brown, Auburn. Brown showed flashes last season playing mostly out of position and with Montravius Adams off to the NFL, he can now see more playing time inside and begin to be the dominant tackle in the middle. Jarrett Stidham is obviously another candidate on the team and players like LSU linebacker Devin White and Ole Miss quarterback Shea Patterson could also be considered.
