Scandal, firing of Briles will devastate Baylor recruiting
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The Baylor football program is in disarray and, based on the evidence and allegations regarding a complete lack of interest in punishing sexual predators, rightly so.
But if you narrow this down to one thing and one thing only, which is difficult when you’re dealing with victims of sexual abuse, what does this mean for the program moving forward in recruiting?
Recruiting?
How can you talk about recruiting when we’re talking about such hideous, disgusting and serious allegations? That’s the question I asked myself when the Penn State scandal came to light a few years back and the simple answer is this – it’s my job.
Art Briles, the savior of Baylor football, is gone and others on his staff could certainly go as well. What you’re dealing with heading into a very key recruiting time is a staff in complete disarray with nothing, and I mean nothing, concrete to sell to prospects.
So what do I think will happen? Bad, bad things on the recruiting trail, that’s what.
Baylor currently has six commitments in the class of 2017 led by in-state stars wide receiver Hezekiah Jones, tight end Kedrick James and Florida transplant quarterback Kellen Mond. And you can bet that none of the six have any idea what the heck is going to happen. And when that is the case, what happens in recruiting? They immediately begin looking around and their Twitter DMs start blowing up from other schools.
Will any of them remain committed to Baylor? That’s a good question and it all depends on what the NCAA decides to do. If it gets involved here, as it did initially with Penn State, then things could go sideways fast. The NCAA was under an immense amount of pressure with the Penn State situation because of the severity. Will it feel the same amount of pressure here? To that level, it's doubtful. But I still think the NCAA gets involved and some serious infractions hit the Baylor program.
Keep in mind that Baylor is not Penn State. It is not a program with a rich history of success or an enormous fan base. Remember Baylor's 1-10 record in 1999? How about the string of three-win seasons from 2001-2004? And going back further, for every 10-2 season as in 1980, there would follow a 5-6 and 4-6-1 year. This is not a storied program as the winningest coach aside from Briles in Baylor football history went 128-105 (Grant Teaff from 1972-1992).
But under Briles, everything changed.
A successful high school coach, Briles related well to recruits and after some lean years in Houston he led the Cougars to four bowl games in five years. At Baylor he took things to the next level after a couple of rough rebuilding years and he won 10 or more games in four of the last five years.
On the recruiting trail, his first class finished 51st and his first full year recruiting for Baylor led to the No. 55 class. But then things started to turn around a bit. In that 2008 class there was a guy named Robert Griffin, a dual-threat quarterback Briles felt was perfect for his offensive system. And Griffin fell in love with the offensive scheme Briles showed him from his days at Houston. The rest, including a big boost in recruiting after RG3 won the Heisman Trophy, is history as they say. Suddenly in-state players like Spencer Drango, Corey Coleman and Andrew Billings, among others, wanted to play at Baylor and the unthinkable occurred – some highly regarded Texas prospects began choosing Baylor over the Longhorns.
Baylor finished 31st in 2013, 34th in 2014 and 17th nationally just this past year, the highest finish for the program since I’ve been covering recruiting. And the wins on the field, 11 in 2013 and 2014 and 10 in 2015 kept coming as well, as Briles amassed a 65-37 record despite starting off with two 4-8 seasons.
So now what? Does all of this progress for the program instantly go away?
That was my prediction for Penn State when it was hammered by the NCAA but recruits like Christian Hackenberg and Adam Breneman stood with new coach Bill O’Brien, the NCAA repealed many of the harshest penalties and Penn State football gradually is climbing back. But can Baylor do the same if it gets hit hard with NCAA penalties? No way.
The Bears have a couple of things going for them: The Big 12 is the smallest Power Five conference with numerous mediocre programs, the Longhorns are struggling and, if they hire an offensive-minded coach, they can still sell a wide-open style to recruits. But with more programs, especially in the SEC, heading into Texas to steal recruits, along with the re-emergence of Oklahoma as a major threat for any elite prospect in the Lone Star State, I just don’t see a recovery here.
It will all depend on what, if anything, the NCAA does.
But regardless, the Baylor Bears just lost their best coach in history, their savior and the man that made the program relevant however disgraceful the approach. I think a huge fall backward is coming.
