Rivals.com Five-Star Club: By the numbers

We could spend days highlighting the interesting numbers related to Rivals.com five-star prospects over the years, but here are some of the most compelling.

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From Vince Young to Daelin Hayes, the 400-plus prospects who earned the lofty five-star distinction from Rivals.com between 2002 and 2016 span the spectrum from all-time greats to cautionary tales. They include household names like Adrian Peterson and Cam Newton and forgotten players like Burton Scott and Dillon Baxter.

Just how rare are five-stars among the general Division I recruit population? Consider that 432 number against the total number of four-star high school prospects over that time – 4,268 – the number of three-star prospects – 13,698 – and two-star prospects – 26,631. After 15 full classes of rating recruits, five-stars account for less than 1 percent of the overall Division I high school prospects in each class.

Only 11 of the 81 Heisman Trophy winners thus far have been rated by Rivals.com, and four of those 11 were five-star prospects. One of those four, however, was USC running back Reggie Bush, who vacated his Heisman Trophy win five years after holding the award. The three other five-star winners were Tim Tebow in 2007, Cam Newton in 2010 and Jameis Winston in 2013.

Of the remaining seven Heisman Trophy winners who were rated by Rivals.com, four were rated four-star prospects and three were rated three-star prospects. Among the five-stars who were Heisman Trophy finalists but just missed out on the award are Adrian Peterson, Darren McFadden, Manti Te’o, Trent Richardson and DeShaun Watson, though Watson still has eligibility and could make another run at the Heisman Trophy in the 2016 season.

One measure of accuracy with recruiting ratings, particularly among the higher-rated prospects, is NFL Draft position. Between the years of 2006 and 2016, when prospects rated by Rivals.com were eligible to be drafted, an average of 5.45 former five-star high school prospects were taken just in the first rounds. Four former five-stars during that span were taken as No. 1 overall picks: Matthew Stafford, Cam Newton, Jadeveon Clowney and Jameis Winston.

The highest number of former five-stars drafted in the first round came in 2015, when Winston led a group of eight former five-stars to go in the first 32 picks. Just as noteworthy, though, was the 2011 draft, which saw six former five-stars go in the first 10 picks of the draft. Interestingly, of the 12 former No. 1 overall prospects who finished their college careers, all 12 were drafted (2008’s No. 1 Terrelle Pryor was a supplemental draft pick), with six going in the first round.

The traditional “Big Three” states in recruiting are California, Florida and Texas. But Georgia has made a very strong case in recent years to redefine that group as the “Big Four.” Consider that its 10 five-stars in these three classes combined are more than Texas (seven) and just behind Florida (12) and California (13).

Also, when you consider Florida’s total, it should be noted that the Sunshine State benefits from IMG Academy in Bradenton, which draws players from across the country who board at their school. Four of Florida’s 12 five-stars over this stretch are actually from out-of-state, including 2016 tight end Isaac Nauta, who is originally from Georgia. A case could be made that Georgia currently accounts for the second-most five-stars of any state over these three classes.

From the 2002 class until the 2016 class, 40 defensive tackles and 55 defensive ends have been rated five-stars. Combined, they easily account for the most of any one position group. Behind defensive line is a tight group of contenders for second place, led by defensive back (57) and followed by running back (53), linebacker (52) and offensive line (51). The specific position group with the fewest five-stars over that timeframe is fullback with only one, but that one was Maurice Clarett, who famously led Ohio State to a national title on the football field and infamously wasted his opportunities off it.

Surprisingly, wide receiver accounts for just 48 of the total five-stars over that stretch. The position has seen an uptick in talent in recent years according to the numbers, while a position like running back has seen a downturn in talent. Not surprisingly, tight end accounts for the fewest five-stars over that time with just seven, but the five that have graduated were all selected in the NFL Draft, four of them in the first two rounds, so the success rate was high.