Published Feb 2, 2017
Looking ahead to the top 2018 storylines
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Nick Krueger  •  Rivals.com
Recruiting Analyst

With National Signing Day in the books for 2017, the wheels have already started turning for recruits in the 2018 class. Here’s a look at the trends and players that will be major factors as the next recruiting cycle begins.

NATIONAL SIGNING DAY 2017: Farrell Awards | Winners and losers | Alabama is No. 1

Who is the front-runner to finish No. 1 in the Rivals.com Team Recruiting Rankings?

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As Alabama looks to wrap up its eighth No. 1 finish in the Rivals.com Team Recruiting Rankings in the last decade, the Tide is already in the picture for repeating yet again next year. Alabama is not an early runaway by any means, as USC, led by five-star quarterback Matt Corral and four other four-star commits have the Trojans off to a fast early start. Florida State and Clemson each have a five-star in their classes and Texas A&M is doing well too. Alabama has four four-star players committed heading into next year’s class, but other top programs have been aggressive in stocking the cupboard. Nobody will be surprised should Nick Saban rally and start catching up, but a number of traditionally strong teams are looking to get the jump on them.

What hot seat coaching situations may affect recruiting?

The hottest high-profile seats likely belong to Notre Dame’s Brian Kelly, Ole Miss’ Hugh Freeze and Texas Tech’s Kliff Kingsbury. The Irish signed a top 15 class this year, but should Notre Dame have another down year and something change with Kelly, a step back in recruiting seems likely. Ole Miss has recovered somewhat from an end-of-fall swoon to pick up a few four-stars on National Signing Day this year, but Kingsbury has seen a declining number of four-star commits every year since 2015 to only finish with one in 2017. While Texas A&M’s Kevin Sumlin, UCLA’s Jim Mora Jr. and even Arizona State’s Todd Graham have all had strong recruiting classes this year, depending on who you ask, they could be trying to do so again next year at a different program.

Which new staffs will be most successful?

Success could be considered relative to the perceived status of any program, but USF’s Charlie Strong and FAU’s Lane Kiffin should bring a generally higher level of recruit to their respective teams than has traditionally been the case. Houston's Major Applewhite hasn’t exactly capitalized on the success with this recruiting class that might have otherwise been expected post-Tom Herman, but Herman hasn’t landed the number of higher-level recruits expected of him based on that success either at Texas. Matt Rhule and Willie Taggart have recovered nicely this year with recruiting obstacles to start, but if they can have strong seasons this year at Baylor and Oregon respectively, they’ll get a big assist in next year’s cycle with the added resurgence of their programs.

What are the strongest positions and states in 2018?

For now, the greatest amount of identified talent nationally comes at wide receiver, with 69 prospects that have a 5.7 three-star ranking or higher. California yields the only two five-stars at the position in Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jalen Hall for now, and nine total players within that ranking range. Texas has the most players overall in that range with 14. The other side of the ball has a comparable field of talent between 2018 cornerbacks and safeties with two more five-star players in the Florida duo of Patrick Surtain and Tyreke Johnson. Thirteen other players from the Sunshine State make up the rest of the 63 players that check in at a 5.7 Rivals Rating or higher.

Will Lawrence stick to his Clemson commitment?

The No. 1 player in the country heading into the spring, quarterback Trevor Lawrence, is currently committed to Clemson, but with the Tigers getting letters from both Hunter Johnson and Chase Brice on National Signing Day, other teams have still been recruiting him hard. Alabama and Georgia are aggressively pursuing him and Nick Saban personally paid him a visit last week. Lawrence is unanimously considered the top recruit in the country, and so long as there is a possibility to steal him away from Clemson, he’ll continue to be recruited.

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