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Inside the Numbers: De-commitment epidemic

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Drew Richmond
We have not even hit prime de-commitment time, and yet 2016's five-stars have already doubled the number of de-commitments from the entire 2015 class despite the group being nearly one-third smaller. A total of 34 prospects earned five-stars in the 2015 class, with 13 not rendering their final decisions before January of their senior seasons.
The four five-star de-commitments in the 2015 class were Tennessee offensive tackle Drew Richmond, Florida State wide receiver George Campbell, Alabama running back Damien Harris and LSU offensive lineman Maea Teuhema. Three of those four made their initial commitments during their sophomore years - Campbell and Harris to Michigan and Teuhama to Texas. Richmond committed to Ole Miss in September of his senior season before flipping on National Signing Day.
65
Percent of five-stars in the 2016 class who are now uncommitted
Kareem Walker
Comparing that percentage to just 30 percent of four-star prospects in the 2016 class that are currently uncommitted and the effect of de-commitments among the five-star group is taking a huge toll. With less than four months until National Signing Day, 15 of the 23 five-stars are still unattached, setting the stage for a flurry of recruiting activity this winter that should have a major impact on the team recruiting rankings.
Of the eight five-star prospects currently committed to schools, most are solid. One very soft commitment, though, is running back Kareem Walker, who famously committed to Ohio State at halftime of last January's National Championship game. Walker recently took an official visit to the Buckeyes' rival, Michigan. Defensive tackle Marlon Davidson is also expected to take additional official visits after committing to Auburn last month.
466
Most days any 2016 five-star has been committed to one school
Jacob Eason
Only one five-star has been committed to a program for longer than a year, and that is quarterback Jacob Eason. The No. 10 prospect in the Rivals100, Eason pledged his services to Georgia on July 19, 2014. A native of Lake Stevens, Wash., Eason has remained solidly committed to the Bulldogs throughout and headlines their top 10 class.
The next-longest tenured five-star commitment is quarterback Malik Henry, who has been a part of Florida State's class for 344 days. Meanwhile, Marlon Davidson (48 days) and Ohio State defensive end commit Nick Bosa (90 days) are the most recent to issue pledges among the eight five-star commitments in the 2016 class.
20
Teams in the Top 25 of the 2016 rankings without a five-star commitment
Gregory Little
Over the last five classes, an average of 14.2 schools ranked in the top 25 of the team recruiting rankings have signed at least one five-star. That number in the 2016 class currently stands at five. With 15 uncommitted five-stars, and the high likelihood that the number of five-stars increases during the final two evaluation periods for the 2016 class, the team recruiting rankings are likely to see a lot of volatility in the final three-plus months before National Signing Day.
Of the five schools ranked in the top 25 that have five-star commitments, Ohio State and Florida State are the only schools with more than one and rank Nos. 1 and 3, respectively. LSU, which sits at No. 2 in the current team recruiting rankings, does not have a five-star commitment, but is a legitimate contender for current five-stars Gregory Little, Shavar Manuel, Ben Davis, Daelin Hayes and Rashan Gary.
Josh Helmholdt
Midwest Recruiting Analyst
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