If I Were A Betting Man: Week 5 picks

If you did one of those word clouds reflecting the college football media’s coverage of Mississippi State’s 44-34 upset of LSU, the biggest word would have been ‘Mike Leach’. Then possibly ‘Derek Stingley’, ‘Bo Pelini’, ‘’Air Raid’, defending national champions’, ‘’623 yards’ and then somewhere in the cloud, you could squint and make out, ‘K.J. Costello’.

So here at Betting Man, I feel it is my duty and obligation to introduce you to the guy who actually threw those 60 passes and five touchdowns.

Costello was a high four-star Army All-American coming out of Santa Margarita Catholic in Southern California. He redshirted as a true freshman at Stanford, was a part-time starter as a redshirt freshman and then broke out as a full-time starter as a sophomore in 2018. He threw for more than 300 yards seven times and for at least four TDs four times. One of those games was against Washington State and Leach, when Costello threw for 323 yards and four TDs in a 41-38 loss.

After leading the Cardinal to nine wins, Costello was voted second-team All-Pac-12 behind Washington State’s Gardner Minshew, who led the nation in passing and now starts for the Jacksonville Jaguars. Costello was mostly hurt during his final season at Stanford and fell off the national radar (if he was ever really on it at Stanford).

It is clear Costello is feeling fortunate he’s landed in Starkville after thinking his career may be over.

He has a political science degree from Stanford, two sisters, enjoys ping pong and is getting his Masters in Business Administration (and touchdown passes). So sure, Leach deserves a ton of credit, and there were other worthy storylines from Baton Rouge. Just want to make sure we all know a little about the guy actually making the plays.

Making the plays this week on the part of the publishers is Derek Young from K-StateOnline.com, who was all over the Wildcats’ upset of Oklahoma last week and is well-versed in all things Big 12. For the analysts, South-Central analyst and super-prognosticator Sam Spiegelman returns after going about 72-0 last season as a guest picker. The Betting Man feels his slim lead will disappear this week.

Off we go.

Spreads are from Covers.com. All games are on Saturday unless noted and times are ET.

Kyle Trask got himself into some Heisman discussion after a brilliant outing at Ole Miss in the opener when he threw for 416 yards and six touchdowns, four of them to All-World tight end Kyle Pitts. South Carolina played Tennessee dead even in a 31-27 home loss. This number is awfully large for a team that just gave up more than 600 yards to cover. From the Did You Know Dept.: Steve Spurrier went 5-5 in 10 matchups vs. the Gators as the South Carolina coach. In all other games vs. Florida since South Carolina joined the SEC, the Gamecocks are 1-17.

Trocchi’s pick: South Carolina, $50

Young: Florida

Spiegelman: Florida

*****

From 1968-2007, Texas was 24-1 against TCU. However, since the teams have been on equal footing, so to speak, after TCU joined the Big 12, the Frogs are 6-2 against their Texas neighbors, with five of the wins coming by at least 10 points. Couple that with TCU QB Max Duggan looking really strong last week as he re-takes his starting spot after being medically cleared and Texas giving up 56 points last week to Texas Tech, this number looks awfully high.

Trocchi’s pick: TCU $100

Young: TCU

Spiegelman: Texas

The Aggies earned a forgettable 17-12 decision over Vanderbilt as 30-point favorites. The lowlight was Texas A&M punt returner Ainais Smith trying to return a punt from his own end zone, only to have the Aggies get flagged for a blindside block, giving Vanderbilt a safety. The drama in Alabama’s rout of Missouri was how Bryce Young would fare in his first mop-up duty with the Tide. The answer: He was 5-for-8 for 54 yards, two yards rushing in three drives that resulted in a Young fumble, a punt and a field goal.

Trocchi’s pick: Alabama, $100

Young: Texas A&M

Spiegelman: Alabama

For all the uneasiness surrounding Georgia’s QB situation and first-half slumber against Arkansas, let’s remember the other side of the ball looked as dominant as expected. Georgia forced nine punts, had three interceptions, recorded a safety and had a pick six while holding Arkansas to 280 yards. So yeah, fret all you want about Stetson Bennett possibly being QB1, the Bulldogs' defense is good enough to win just about any game on the schedule.

Trocchi’s pick: Georgia $50

Young: Auburn

Spiegelman: Auburn

This line has been pushed down to almost lock status thanks to last Saturday’s unexpected results. Iowa State had an impressive win over TCU, masking the fact that it lost its opener to Louisiana by 17. Oklahoma endured an embarrassing collapse against Kansas State, masking the fact that it had outscored its opponents 83-0 in the first seven quarters of the season. Add in the fact that OU probably feels like it has to run things up the rest of the way in order to get back to the College Football Playoff, and I’m thinking Sooners go big here.

Trocchi’s pick: Oklahoma $150

Young: Oklahoma

Spiegelman: Oklahoma

Season Standings

Trocchi: 7-7, minus $100

Analysts: 6-8

Publishers: 6-8

When there is a unanimous selection: 1-3