If I Were A Betting Man: Week 14 picks

Everyone likes to talk about bad beats, the bets that are seemingly won but then ripped away in agonizing fashion. But every once in a while, you’re on the right side of a bad beat, which brings us to last week’s Texas A&M-LSU game.

Your trusty Betting Man took LSU at plus-14.5 based on the Tigers building a little confidence in winning a tight one vs,. Arkansas and the Aggies being idle for two weeks and having the pressure of impressing the playoff committee.

Well, the Aggies went out and stifled LSU for 55 minutes, building a 20-0 lead for what appeared to be a solid cover. LSU took over on its own 19-yard line having just one drive of longer than 30 yards on the night. Backup freshman QB Max Johnson was at the controls in a driving rain storm in a game that was clearly lost. So what happens? Yep, LSU drives 81 yards in 14 plays and scores the point-spread-covering TD with 38 seconds left. It was a classic backdoor cover/bad beat, except if you laid your (pretend) money on LSU.

Looking to avoid bad beats this week is Doug Bucshon from Orange&BlueNews.com, who will lend his Big Ten expertise with two Big Ten games on our slate. Chad Simmons, one half of the wonderful Mouths of the South podcast and Rivals Southeast analyst extraordinaire, will represent the Rivals analysts in a last ditch effort to turn their season around.

Off we go.

Spreads are from Covers.com. All games are on Saturday unless otherwise noted and times are ET.

The Buckeyes are feeling some heat to run up the score in this one as their once seemingly secure spot in the playoff now is in jeopardy thanks to a lack of games and impressive wins. Michigan State did just enough to get past Northwestern, but I’m hanging onto my preseason perception that these Spartans are in total rebuilding mode. Ohio State puts its foot on the gas and keeps it there.

Trocchi: Ohio State, $100

Bucshon: Ohio State

Simmons: Ohio State

Another team under pressure to impress the playoff committee is Texas A&M, which seems to be on the cusp of passing Ohio State for that No. 4 spot in the rankings. The Aggies will face a far tougher opponent this week and need to get much better play from Kellen Mond, who was just 11 of 34 for 105 yards against LSU. Auburn is undefeated at home, but is licking its wounds after an Iron Bowl beatdown. This line seems low, and an initial four-point line is now up to seven as money came in on the Aggies. I’m still going to go with Texas A&M, but I don’t feel great about it.

Trocchi: Texas A&M, $50

Bucshon: Texas A&M

Simmons: Texas A&M

How many points is Indiana quarterback Michael Penix Jr. worth? The Hoosiers are 5-1 with their only loss a seven-pointer at Ohio State. Wisconsin is 2-1 and got overpowered by 10 points against Northwestern. Yet with Penix out for the season, the line is over two touchdowns in Wisconsin’s favor. That seems like a lot, no?

Trocchi: Indiana, $100

Bucshon: Wisconsin

Simmons: Indiana

Since blowing out Boston College, Virginia Tech has lost four of five and seems to be limping to the finish line. Clemson, meanwhile, can clinch a rematch with Notre Dame in the ACC championship game with a win. I’d say the motivation edge sits squarely with the Tigers. And so does the talent edge.

Trocchi: Clemson, $100

Bucshon: Clemson

Simmons: Clemson

Vegas is making it very difficult to bet on Alabama in this one, right? You figure the Tide will be in the 40s or so, but to safely cover, they have to hold LSU to around 14 points, a number LSU has exceeded in five of seven games this year. But it flat-out seems wrong to bet against Alabama right now, especially with the defense round into form. Alabama’s average margin of victory the last four weeks is 40.3 points. I guess I’m sold.

Trocchi: Alabama, $50

Bucshon: LSU

Simmons: Alabama

Season Standings

Trocchi: 33-25-1, plus $450

Publishers: 30-28-1

Analysts: 19-39-1

When there is a unanimous pick: 8-9-1