If I Were A Betting Man: New Year's Six picks

This unpredictable college football season is about to close, but was it really all that unpredictable? Oregon beat USC in the Pac-12 championship game. Alabama beat Florida in the SEC. Oklahoma, Ohio State and Clemson extended their conference championship win streaks to six, four and six years respectively.

In other words, not even a global pandemic that wreaked havoc with rosters, coaching staffs, schedules and practices can stop the Sooners, Buckeyes, etc., from ruling their fiefdoms. After seven years, Clemson has six playoff appearances, the rest of the ACC combined has one. Alabama has six, the rest of the SEC - two. Ohio State has four, the rest of the conference - one. And Oklahoma (four) is the only Big 12 team to make it thus far.

There were surprises, obviously. Penn State, Michigan and to a lesser extent Florida State, performed far below program standards. And multiple Group of Five storylines emerged in the form of Cincinnati, the Mullets vs. Mormons classic, plus the Sun Belt sweeping three games in the Big 12 before winning four bowl games and losing the fifth in overtime.

But when it comes to the playoff field, its same old, same old. Each of the last six playoffs have consisted of three of the Big Four (Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, OU) and one wild card.

So 2020, despite the herky-jerky nature of the season, served as a reminder that the top-of-the-line Haves remain in charge, pretty much no matter what.

The Betting Man remains in charge of the picks race, despite a disastrous Championship Weekend. Brent Hubbs of Volquest.com will try to nudge the Rivals publishers closer after covering Tennessee against four teams participating in the New Year’s Six games. For the analysts, who took it on the chin after winning this contest in 2019, South Central expert Sam Spiegelman will attempt to finish strong.

Off we go.

All games are ET and on ESPN and point spreads are from Covers.com

Do you remember the ‘Bowl Championship Series’, which wasn’t really a series? Now we have the ‘New Year’s Six’ bowls, many of which are not played on New Year’s Day. Hey, the sport features a league called the Big Ten that has 14 teams and another called the Big 12 that has 10 teams, so what are you going to do? Kyle Trask’s biggest weapons (Kyle Pitts, Kadarius Toney, Trevon Grimes, Jacob Copeland) are sitting this one out, which likely will be a problem. Oklahoma wins its eighth straight to close the season.

Trocchi’s pick: Oklahoma, $50

Hubbs: Florida

Spiegelman: Oklahoma

History says the Bearcats have a chance in this game. In the six-year run of the new format, the Group of Five team is 3-3 straight up and has scored at least 32 points in five of the six games. With the over/under set at 50.5, a defensive battle is expected, and Cincinnati has a good one. The undefeated Bearcats allowed over 20 points just twice all season. Given how disrespected Cincinnati feels, plus the noon kickoff in a mostly empty stadium that won’t really inspire Georgia, Cincinnati at least covers the seven points.

Trocchi’s pick: Cincinnati, $50

Hubbs: Cincinnati

Spiegelman: Georgia

Scary stat No. 1 - Alabama is averaging 38 points per game by halftime in its last three games. Scary stat No,. 2 - Alabama has two Heisman Trophy finalists on offense, and a third player (Najee Harris) who is averaging more points per game than any Power 5 player in the last 10 years. Scary stat No. 3 - Alabama’s average margin of victory in 11 SEC games is 29.7, and it didn’t play the league’s two worst teams (South Carolina, Vanderbilt). This is the biggest spread in the history of the playoff, and Alabama seems poised to cover it.

Trocchi’s pick: Alabama, $50

Hubbs: Alabama

Spiegelman: Notre Dame

Dabo Swinney has been poking the Ohio State bear for a few weeks, saying the Buckeyes should not be in the playoff after playing just six games. “I could probably run for governor in Michigan,” he said Monday. The Tigers beat Ohio State 29-23 in last year’s thrilling Fiesta Bowl, and there is a chance this one comes down to the final possession as well. But Ohio State needs a complete game to compete with Clemson, and it just hasn’t put one together yet, especially against its two toughest opponents — Indiana (42-35) and Northwestern (22-10).

Trocchi’s pick: Clemson, $50

Hubbs: Clemson

Spiegelman: Ohio State

Cool storyline for teams with a pedestrian combined record of 12-5 — both starting QBs return to their home state of Arizona and resume an epic high school rivalry. Iowa State’s Brock Purdy went to Perry High in Gilbert and faced Oregon’s Tyler Shough at Hamilton High in Chandler four times. Perry’s Purdy beat Hamilton’s Shough in all four, with two of the final scores being- 65-63 and 63-60. This one has a chance to be just as close as the teams are evenly matched. Taking the points in a close game.

Trocchi’s pick: Oregon, $50

Hubbs: Iowa State

Spieglelman: Oregon

The disrespected theme is back in this one as the Aggies feel snubbed after being left out of the playoff with an 8-1 record. North Carolina, which tied NC State for fourth in the ACC, will be without its leading tackler (Chazz Surratt), its leading receiver (Dyami Brown), its leading rusher (Michael Carter) and its second-leading rusher (Javonte Williams). All four are skipping the game to avoid injury ahead of the NFL Draft. The stage is set for a Texas A&M blowout, except the Aggies don’t really blow teams out, as they won just two games by more than 14 points. Texas A&M wins a bit of a slog with a front-door cover.

Trocchi’s pick: Texas A&M, $50

Hubbs: Texas A&M

Spiegelman: Texas A&M

Season standings

Trocchi: 42-31-1, plus $650

Publishers: 37-36-1

Analysts: 28-45-1

When there is a unanimous pick: 11-11-1