As the college football season gets closer, there is a group of coaches that enter this fall on the hot seat or at least a very warm seat. Here is a look at how those coaches are doing on the recruiting trail this cycle and whether their shaky status appears to be making an impact with recruits.
RUMOR MILL: Big recruiting weekend looms
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CLASS OF 2025 RANKINGS: Rivals250 | Team | Position | State
CLASS OF 2026 RANKINGS: Rivals250 | Team | Position | State
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DAVE ARANDA, Baylor
Class ranking: No. 32 nationally, No. 4 in Big 12
Overview: After winning 12 games in 2021, taking home the Big 12 title in a thriller and winning the Sugar Bowl, things have fallen off a cliff in Waco. The next season, the Bears went 6-7 followed by a 3-9 disaster last year. Aranda went from one of the hottest young coaches in the country to clearly on the hot seat.
Recruiting is actually going pretty well this cycle for Baylor as only UCF has more four-stars in the Big 12 so far. Four-star receivers Jacorey Watson and Taz Williams Jr. lead the way and then four-star running back Michael Turner Jr. and four-star defensive end Kamauryn Morgan are other top prospects in the class.
Asked about Baylor’s recruiting success at Big 12 Media Days, Aranda was blunt as could be in the age of NIL: “We’re paying players,” he said.
RELATED: Baylor's 2025 commitment list
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TONY ELLIOTT, Virginia
Class ranking: No. 49 nationally, No. 12 in ACC
Overview: Bronco Mendenhall had two losing seasons to start his career at Virginia but it felt different – like the Cavaliers were absolutely heading in the right direction and that was the case as they turned the corner in Year 3. Elliott has six wins over two years and now enters a more-challenging ACC situation.
Recruiting is fine but nothing to write home about. The Cavaliers along with Duke, Boston College, Wake Forest and Cal are the conference teams with no four-star commitments. All 17 pledges are three-stars led by in-state receivers Isaiah Robinson and Dillon Newton-Short, offensive lineman Jon Adair and athlete Chris Spence.
Here’s the challenge for Virginia: All of its games through early October are winnable. But it wouldn’t be a shock if the Cavs dropped all of them, either.
RELATED: Virginia's 2025 commitment list
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CLARK LEA, Vanderbilt
Class ranking: No. 75 nationally, No. 16 in SEC
Overview: Vanderbilt is arguably the toughest job in the Power Four and it’s getting harder with the additions of Texas and Oklahoma to the SEC. The Commodores have not had a winning season in a decade since James Franklin coached them. Lea is 9-27 in three seasons and has won two SEC games during that stretch.
Recruiting has not been gangbusters, either. Vanderbilt is sandwiched between Cincinnati and Tulsa in the national team rankings. It’s last in the SEC and the only team with single-digit commitments and no four-stars.
High three-star defensive backs Carson Lawrence and Cayden Daniels lead the Commodores’ class but they need some other high-level prospects to compete in the nation’s toughest conference.
RELATED: Vandy's 2025 commitment list
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BILLY NAPIER, Florida
Class ranking: No. 56 nationally, No. 15 in SEC
Overview: Napier came to Gainesville with a pristine reputation as a coach and recruiter, his credentials were impeccable and he went 40-12 overall in four seasons at Louisiana-Lafayette, an astonishing 33-5 in his last three years there. But it has not been working out quick enough at Florida and after three-straight losing seasons (two credited to Napier) the pitchforks are coming out.
Florida has a massive recruiting staff but the Gators have only 10 commitments including a kicker, although landing high four-star receiver Vernell Brown in recent days could kickstart things a little bit. Running back Waltez Clark is a nice pickup and then two big-timers on the defensive line in four-stars Jalen Wiggins and Jeramiah McCloud should help.
It just feels, though, like a lot of top prospects have chosen elsewhere and don’t want to wait around to see if Napier rights the ship in Gainesville or if he’s sent packing after another tough season. There is almost zero patience for losing with Gators fans.
RELATED: Florida's 2025 commitment list
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SAM PITTMAN, Arkansas
Class ranking: No. 40 nationally, No. 12 in SEC
Overview: After the Chad Morris debacle at Arkansas in which he posted back-to-back 2-10 seasons, Pittman came in and looked like he was turning things around, especially after going 9-4 in 2021. But things have slid since then with 7-6 and 4-8 seasons in Fayetteville. Pittman didn’t shy away from hot-seat talk at SEC Media Days where he acknowledged he’s at the top of those lists and said “what’s fair is fair.”
The issue for the Razorbacks is that recruiting is not going great but it’s not going poorly. Kind of the story of the program as well. Keeping four-star quarterback Grayson Wilson from Conway, Ark., home was big but the top-four in-state prospects are committed elsewhere. Going to Georgia for four-star linebacker Tavion Wallace was also a big win.
But in-state stars Omarion Robinson and Marcus Wimberly are both committed to Oklahoma. Four-star offensive lineman Carius Curne is going to LSU. Pittman needs a spark somewhere but the SEC schedule is unforgiving and the Razorbacks play a tough non-conference game against Oklahoma State in Week 2.
RELATED: Arkansas' 2025 commitment list
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SCOTT SATTERFIELD, Cincinnati
Class ranking: No. 74 nationally, No. 15 in Big 12
Overview: Satterfield had a phenomenal run at Appalachian State but since taking the Louisville and now the Cincinnati job his success has hit the skids. Already on the hot seat with the Cardinals, Satterfield bolted to replace Luke Fickell at Cincinnati but then went 3-9 in his first season with the Bearcats, their worst record since 1999.
Recruiting has not picked up much yet in this cycle. Cincinnati is between FAU and Vanderbilt in the national team rankings and the class is led by high three-star defensive back Jahmari Deloatch although some bigger hitters will be needed for the Bearcats to move even higher.
Is putting Satterfield on this list only in his second season jumping the gun? Maybe. But he was on the hot seat at Louisville before leaving and that might not change now at Cincinnati.
RELATED: Cincinnati's 2025 commitment list
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JUSTIN WILCOX, Cal
Class ranking: No. 65 nationally, No. 17 in ACC
Overview: Wilcox has not shown up on a lot of preseason hot seat lists but Cal has not had a winning season since 2019 and Wilcox has never been over .500 in Pac-12 play during six full seasons and the COVID year.
Recruiting has been slow. Cal is currently last in the ACC team rankings but there was a good duo added in July with Hawaiian athlete Aiden Manutai and one of the biggest steals possibly this recruiting cycle in current high three-star quarterback Jaron Sagapolutele, who was excellent at the Elite 11.
Before mid-October, Cal has to play Auburn, Florida State and Miami. It could be another tough start to a season but the question in Berkeley that could help Wilcox is whether anyone will even notice.
RELATED: Cal's 2025 commitment list
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