Hit or Miss: Rivals does a self-scout on rankings of 32 first-rounders
The first round of the NFL Draft is in the books and as always we grade how we did ranking the first-rounders out of high school. It’s called HIT or MISS.
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MORE NFL DRAFT: Grading all 32 first-round picks
CLASS OF 2022 RANKINGS: Rivals250 | Position | Team | State
CLASS OF 2023 RANKINGS: Rivals100
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RIVALS CAMP SERIES: Info/coverage on 2021 camp series
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1. QB Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
Out of high school: Lawrence was a five-star recruit in the class of 2018. He was ranked No. 1 nationally, the No. 1 pro-style quarterback and the No. 1 recruit from Georgia.
Judge Farrell: HIT. From No. 1 recruit to No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft this is an easy call. And the amazing part is we knew it would happen.
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2. QB Zach Wilson, New York Jets
Out of high school: Wilson was a three-star recruit in the class of 2018. He was not ranked nationally, at his position or in the state of Utah.
Judge Farrell: MISS. Wilson was a three-star who was very thin and didn’t have much of a frame to fill out but his arm talent was there so we missed.
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3. QB Trey Lance, San Francisco 49ers
Out of high school: Lance was a two-star recruit in the class of 2018. He was not ranked nationally, at his position or in the state of Minnesota.
Judge Farrell: MISS. Lance was a baseball player with a sidearm release out of high school but once he focused on football he became a stud.
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4. TE Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons
Out of high school: Pitts was a four-star recruit in the class of 2018. He was not ranked nationally but was the No. 12 tight end and the No. 9 recruit from Pennsylvania.
Judge Farrell: HIT. Pitts was a four-star out of high school and, even though he was not in our Rivals250, we saw something. Look at the high school camp tape. He wasn’t the same guy.
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5. WR Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals
Out of high school: Chase was a four-star recruit in the class of 2018. He was ranked No. 67 nationally, was the No. 12 wide receiver and the No. 4 recruit from Louisiana.
Judge Farrell: HIT. Chase was a high-level four-star and in the discussion for a five-star ranking at times.
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6. WR Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins
Out of high school: Waddle was a five-star recruit in the class of 2018. He was ranked No. 31 nationally, the No. 7 wide receiver and the No. 2 recruit from Texas.
Judge Farrell: HIT. We were the only recruiting network to have Waddle as a five-star which is puzzling because he was so fast and dominant at the Army Bowl.
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7. OL Penei Sewell, Detroit Lions
Out of high school: Sewell was a four-star recruit in the class of 2018. He was ranked No. 60 nationally, the No. 5 offensive tackle and the No. 1 recruit from Utah.
Judge Farrell: HIT. The only thing we didn’t see was dominance outside as we projected him to perhaps be a guard if needed. But this is a hit.
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8. CB Jaycee Horn, Carolina Panthers
Out of high school: Horn was a four-star recruit in the class of 2017. He was ranked No. 189 nationally, the No. 20 cornerback and the No. 23 recruit from Georgia.
Judge Farrell: HIT. Horn was the Defensive Back MVP of our Atlanta camp back in the day and we knew how good he could be. This good? Maybe not, but this is still a hit.
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9. CB Patrick Surtain, Denver Broncos
Out of high school: Surtain was a five-star recruit in the class of 2018. He was ranked No. 8 nationally, the No. 2 cornerback and the No. 2 recruit from Florida.
Judge Farrell: HIT. Surtain was a no-brainer five-star with his size and speed and he proved to everyone how quickly he could pick things up.
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10. WR DeVonta Smith, Philadelphia Eagles
Out of high school: Smith was a four-star recruit in the class of 2017. He was ranked No. 42 nationally, the No. 6 wide receiver and the No. 2 recruit from Louisiana.
Judge Farrell: HIT. At No. 42 nationally he was in the five-star discussion and his size was all that held him back.
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11. Justin Fields, Chicago Bears
Out of high school: Fields was a five-star recruit in the class of 2018. He was ranked No. 2 nationally, the No. 1 dual-threat quarterback and the No. 2 recruit from Georgia.
Judge Farrell: HIT. Fields was the consensus No. 2 to Trevor Lawrence and I think should have gone No. 2 in this draft.
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12. LB Micah Parsons, Dallas Cowboys
Out of high school: Parsons was a five-star recruit in the class of 2018. He was ranked No. 6 nationally, the No. 1 outside linebacker and the No. 1 recruit from Pennsylvania.
Judge Farrell: HIT. Another five-star in the first round, Parsons was a dominating defensive end out of high school we projected to linebacker.
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13. OL Rashawn Slater, LA Chargers
Out of high school: Slater was a three-star recruit in the class of 2017. He was not ranked nationally or in the state of Texas but was the No. 36 offensive guard.
Judge Farrell: MISS. Slater had some bad weight in high school and wasn’t the freak athlete you see now but this is clearly a miss.
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14. OL Alijah Vera-Tucker, New York Jets
Out of high school: Vera-Tucker was a four-star recruit in the class of 2017. He was ranked No. 176 nationally, the No. 17 offensive tackle and the No. 26 recruit from California.
Judge Farrell: HIT. As a Rivals250 prospect the potential for round one was there despite the high ranking at offensive tackle.
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15. QB Mac Jones, New England Patriots
Out of high school: Jones was a four-star recruit in the class of 2017. He was ranked No. 162 nationally, the No. 9 pro-style quarterback and the No. 30 recruit from Florida.
Judge Farrell: HIT. People talk about how he came from nowhere but that makes no sense. He was overshadowed by Tua Tagovaioloa in the Alabama class but a Rivals250 kid and four-star.
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16. LB Zaven Collins, Arizona Cardinals
Out of high school: Collins was a two-star recruit in the class of 2017. He was not ranked nationally, at his position or in the state of Oklahoma.
Judge Farrell: MISS. He had no position in high school we could project him at really as a big athlete but that doesn’t matter. He played amazingly.
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17. Alex Leatherwood, Las Vegas Raiders
Out of high school: Leatherwood was a five-star recruit in the class of 2017. He was ranked No. 4 nationally, was the No. 1 offensive tackle and the No. 1 recruit from Florida.
Judge Farrell: HIT. A reach in the draft? Maybe. But a surefire five-star out of high school and simply a massive human.
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18. Jaelan Phillips, Miami Dolphins
Out of high school: Phillips was a five-star recruit in the class of 2017. He was ranked No. 6 nationally, the No. 2 weakside defensive end and the No. 2 recruit from California.
Judge Farrell: HIT. Another high school five-star, Phillips was right up there with Leatherwood in the same class.
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19. Jamin Davis, Washington Football Team
Out of high school: Davis was a three-star recruit in the class of 2017. He was not ranked nationally or at his position but was the No. 100 recruit from Georgia.
Judge Farrell: MISS. Davis was a high three-star so this is close as he wasn’t heavily recruited but landing in the first round makes him a miss.
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20. Kadarius Toney, New York Giants
Out of high school: Toney was a three-star recruit in the class of 2017. He was not ranked nationally but was the No. 63 athlete and the No. 28 recruit from Alabama.
Judge Farrell: MISS. Toney was a mid-level three-star athlete who turned himself into one of the best receivers in college football.
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21. Kwity Paye, Indianapolis Colts
Out of high school: Paye was a three-star recruit in the class of 2017. He was not ranked nationally but was the No. 35 weakside defensive end. There was not state ranking for Rhode Island.
Judge Farrell: MISS. Paye was raw but we had plenty of evaluation opportunities to move him up and didn’t. In our defense, he didn’t look like a future freak.
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22. Caleb Farley, Tennessee Titans
Out of high school: Farley was a four-star recruit in the class of 2017. He was not ranked nationally but was the No. 32 athlete and the No. 9 recruit from North Carolina.
Judge Farrell: HIT. An athlete who played wide receiver in our final evaluation, Farley as a four-star was a good ranking.
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23. Christian Darrisaw, Minnesota Vikings
Out of high school: Darrisaw was a two-star recruit in the class of 2017. He was not ranked nationally, at his position or in the state of Maryland. He was however a four-star out of prep school a year later.
Judge Farrell: HIT. I’m taking credit for the prep school ranking over high school since he came to football late.
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24. Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers
Out of high school: Harris was a five-star recruit in the class of 2017. He was ranked No. 1 nationally, the No. 1 running back and the No. 1 recruit from California.
Judge Farrell: HIT. Harris was the No. 1 recruit the year before Lawrence and became a first-rounder. An obvious hit.
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25. Travis Etienne, Jacksonville Jaguars
Out of high school: Etienne was a three-star recruit in the class of 2017. He was not ranked nationally but was the No. 26 running back and the No. 16 recruit from Louisiana.
Judge Farrell: MISS. As a high three-star who did so much out of college and landed in the first round, we have to take the miss here.
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26. Greg Newsome, Cleveland Browns
Out of high school: Newsome was a three-star recruit in the class of 2018. He was not ranked nationally but was the No. 36 safety and the No. 97 recruit from Florida.
Judge Farrell: MISS. Since he played at the infamous IMG Academy where four- and five-stars abound, having him as a three-star feels like a miss.
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27. Rashod Bateman, Baltimore Ravens
Out of high school: Bateman was a four-star recruit in the class of 2018. He was not ranked nationally but was the No. 59 wide receiver and the No. 32 recruit from Georgia.
Judge Farrell: HIT. A four-star from Georgia who ends up at Minnesota is a hit.
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28. Payton Turner, New Orleans Saints
Out of high school: Turner was a two-star recruit out of high school and not ranked in the state of Texas.
Judge Farrell: MISS. He wasn’t well known and locally recruited and two-stars isn’t pretty for a first-rounder.
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29. Eric Stokes, Green Bay Packers
Out of high school: Stokes was a three-star recruit in the class of 2017. He was not ranked nationally but was the No. 51 athlete and the No. 56 recruit from Louisiana.
Judge Farrell: MISS. Stokes was a fast kid but wasn’t a very good defensive back in high school. That changed and with so many four- and five-stars headed to UGA having him as a three-star seems low.
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30. Gregory Rousseau, Buffalo Bills
Out of high school: Rousseau was a four-star recruit in the class of 2018. He was not ranked nationally but was the No. 15 athlete and the No. 61 recruit from Florida.
Judge Farrell: HIT. A great projection here as Rousseau was a skinny safety and wide receiver in high school.
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31. Jayson Oweh, Baltimore Ravens
Out of high school: Oweh was a four-star recruit in the class of 2018. He was ranked No. 140 nationally, the No. 9 strongside defensive end and the No. 3 recruit from New Jersey.
Judge Farrell: HIT. Oweh was raw and still is but he was inside the top 150 in high school.
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32. Joe Tryon, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Out of high school: Tryon was a three-star recruit in the class of 2017. He was not ranked nationally but was the No. 39 strongside defensive end and the No. 9 recruit from Washington.
Judge Farrell: MISS. This is a tough call because he was locally recruited but landing in the first round should mean at least four stars.