History of first-year coaches' recruiting success: Pac-12
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This season, there are arguably more new head coaches at high-profile football schools than ever before. The 2017 season ended with 13 Power Five programs hiring new coaches, including several marquee names in the sport – Florida State, Florida, Nebraska, Oregon, UCLA, Texas A&M, Tennessee and more – adding even further intrigue heading into this season.
With that in mind, Rivals.com took a closer look at how head coaches around the country began their tenures on the recruiting trail. Today, the Pac-12 is under the microscope.
NOTE: Arizona's Kevin Sumlin, Arizona State's Herm Edwards, Oregon's Mario Cristobal, Oregon State's Jonathan Smith and UCLA's Chip Kelly were not included in this study because they have yet to complete their first recruiting cycle as head coach at their schools. Year 1 represents a coach's first full recruiting cycle as head coach at that school.
Observations: The Pac-12 always seems to operate a little differently than the rest of the conferences when it comes to recruiting. Teams in the league are said to be a little more laid back but they always finish with a bang. Whether that is actually true or not, the data suggests that all of the coaches in this study, except for Willie Taggart's first and only year at Oregon, take it pretty easy in the first three months of the recruiting calendar. Other than Taggart, Washington's Chris Petersen, USC's Clay Helton and Cal's Justin Wilcox were the only three coaches out of the 10 in this study to pick up at least 10-percent of their commitments during this time period.
Most of the Pac-12 coaches in this study kicked it into gear during the second three-month period of the recruiting cycle, which is a bit odd considering this period is mostly comprised of a NCAA-mandated dead period. Former Oregon State head coach Gary Anderson, Colorado's Mike MacIntyre, Washington State's Mike Leach, Cal's Wilcox, Stanford's David Shaw and former USC head coach Steve Sarkisian all picked up at least 24-percent of the commitments in their first full recruiting classes during the summer months.
During the season, the third three-month period of the recruiting cycle, most of these Pac-12 coaches were not very active on the recruiting trail. Only Petersen, Anderson and Wilcox added at least 24-percent of their commitments in this period but those months during the season were just a warm up for the final period of the recruiting cycle.
Every single Pac-12 coach in this study collected at least one-third of their recruiting class in the last three months of the recruiting cycle, the time when many players end up taking official visits and coaches can conduct in-home visits. More than 75 percent of Kyle Whittingham's commitments in his first full recruiting cycle as Utah's head coach came in the final three months of the recruiting calendar. Helton wasn't far behind him with just over 60 percent. MacIntyre, Anderson, Shaw and Leach were all over 50 percent as well.
Farrell's take for new coaches: Oregon has obviously made the biggest splash in 2019 when it comes to the new coaches and I think UCLA is off to a slower start overall than I expected. The Bruins only have a handful of commitments and have plenty of room for guys down the stretch but you'd think they'd want a few more than they have now. The Ducks have 20 commitments already and might not have room for everyone they want. It's an interesting balance so far for both schools.
Observations: The only state in Pac-12 territory that is exceedingly talented is California and two of the three California schools involved in this study (USC and Cal) were the only ones to collect more in-state commitments that out-of-state commitments in either year one or year two. When Sarkisian was at USC, the large majority of his first recruiting class was comprised of in-state prospects but his second class was much more balanced, much like Helton's first two years at USC. Wilcox's first two years at Cal have tilted the scales in the same way that Sarkisian's two classes did, overwhelmingly in-state in year one and so far it is more balanced in year two.
Every other Pac-12 coach in this study, except for Stanford's Shaw in his second recruiting class, heavily recruited out-of-state prospects. None of them even came close to signing a balanced in-state versus out-of-state class.
Farrell's take for new coaches: UCLA should land the majority of its recruits from in-state although Kelly has reach as a recruiter. Arizona, Arizona State, Oregon and Oregon State must hit California and other states hard to be successful. Oregon has done a very nice job of recruiting nationally, which is why it is ranked so high while the rest are still working on it.
Observations: This section is especially brutal for the Pac-12. Of the nine coaches highlighted in this part of the study, only Utah's Whittingham and USC's Helton had a better recruiting class ranking in year two than in year one. Five of these coaches saw a change of less than 10 spots in the team recruiting rankings in year two but the two biggest moves came from Washington State's Leach and Stanford's Shaw. Leach nearly had the Cougars in the top 50 of the team rankings in his first full recruiting cycle but it dropped to nearly No. 70 in year two. Shaw experiences very strict recruiting guidelines at Stanford so it was pretty impressive when the Cardinal signed a top-five class in his first year as head coach. In his second year, facing limited available scholarships, the Stanford recruiting class plummeted to outside the top 60.
Farrell's take for new coaches: Only Oregon and Cristobal are setting the bar very high for season two as it will be hard to foresee the Ducks doing better than they are this year. I don't expect highly ranked classes from any of the other new coaches including Kelly and UCLA, which kind of surprises me.