History of first-year coaches' recruiting success: Big Ten
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This season, there are arguably more new head coaches at high-profile football schools than ever before. The 2017 season ended with 13 Power Five programs hiring new coaches, including several marquee names in the sport – Florida State, Florida, Nebraska, Oregon, UCLA, Texas A&M and more – adding even further intrigue heading into this season.
With that in mind, Rivals.com took a closer look at how head coaches around the country began their tenures on the recruiting trail. Today, the Big Ten is under the microscope and the other Power Five conferences will be featured later this week.
NOTE: Iowa's Kirk Ferentz, Nebraska's Scott Frost, and former Minnesota head coach Tracy Claeys were not included in this study. Data on Ferentz's first recruiting class is unavailable, Frost has yet to complete his first recruiting cycle at Nebraska and Claeys did not complete one recruiting cycle as a head coach. Year 1 represents a coach's first full recruiting cycle at that school.
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Observations: There is a lot to digest in this graph. This first three-month period is comprised of NCAA-mandated quiet and evaluation periods as well as college spring games. During this time, college coaches have to lean on their abilities to build bonds with prospects and their families without any face-to-face contact off campus. Players have always talked about how personable Urban Meyer, James Franklin and PJ Fleck are - and that clearly gives them a leg up in the first three months of the recruiting cycle. It's even more impressive that these three coaches were able to secure more than 30 percent of their first recruiting class in the first three months of the recruiting calendar.
Seven of these 14 coaches had more than half of their first full recruiting class locked in before the football season started. All of the coaches, except for Mark Dantonio, slowed down on the recruiting trail during the season. But 10 of the 14 coaches got more than 30 percent of their commitments during the final three months of the recruiting calendar. That time period is generally when most players take official visits and coaches are allowed to conduct in-home visits with prospects.
Farrell's take for new coaches: Frost has done a good job of securing some early commitments for Nebraska while leaving some room for guys down the stretch. You don't want to completely load up in year one on early commitments, at least in my opinion, because it can box you into a corner if you do so. He's added some key guys and has some top targets left so I like the balance he's showing here.
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Observations: Locking down in-state commitments is one of the keys most people point out when talking about success on the recruiting trail, but very few states in the Big Ten territory are loaded with talent. Historically, states such as Nebraska, Wisconsin, Indiana and Minnesota are generally pretty barren of top prospects, so schools in those states are forced to recruit from around the country if they hope to field a competitive team. Michigan State's Mark Dantonio is the only Big Ten coach to sign more in-state prospects in his first and second year as head coach. The only other head coach to sign more in-state prospects in any of his first two years as a head coach is Chris Ash at Rutgers. It is a bit puzzling to see how much Jim Harbaugh has prioritized recruiting out-of-state talent despite that fact that Michigan is one of the most talented states in Big Ten territory.
Farrell's take for new coaches: Nebraska has to rely on out-of-state prospects for the most part to fill its class but when a key prospect like Nick Henrich is out there in the state, the Huskers must, and I mean must, land him. Allowing others to poach the state would hurt badly moving forward so landing Henrich was crucial. A good balance of out-of-state and in-state recruits is always wanted, but with Nebraska it has to be much more skewed toward out-of-state players.
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Observations: Increasing the level of talent on the roster is generally one of the first priorities of a new head coach, and a better recruiting class from year one to year two goes a long way to reaching that goal. Northwestern's Pat Fitzgerald and Michigan State's Mark Dantonio saw their recruiting classes improve drastically, and PJ Fleck and Jeff Brohm are on track to do the same. Jim Harbaugh and Urban Meyer both had top-five recruiting classes in their first years at Michigan and Ohio State, so the fact that their ranking either stayed the same or only dropped one spot illustrates the well-known fact that they are both excellent recruiters. Maryland and Rutgers both saw their recruiting class rankings take a dip after D.J. Durkin's and Chris Ash's first seasons. Lovie Smith at Illinois is in danger of the same thing if he and his staff can't turn things around before signing day.
Farrell's take for new coaches: It's surprising to see some major programs drop from year one to year two under a new coach so it will be key for Frost to build upward momentum. His class this year shouldn't set the bar too high when it comes to improvement in year two so I think he'll be in good shape. The goal is to get stronger as you reach year two and three of your tenure and build up your depth and roster that way and Nebraska should be good with that.