Flipping in Florida: Chances 2018 recruits from Florida decommit
It’s easy to shoot an eye roll at an early commitment. History dictates that few last until Signing Day and things are capable of changing in a hurry. Some carry more reason for skepticism for others, though. Below, Rivals.com takes a look at 16 early commitments from Rivals250 prospects in the powerhouse state of Florida and ranks them by their likelihood to last until Signing Day 2018.
Breakdown: The allure here is obvious. On draft day, Cook’s brother, Dalvin Cook, will become rich because of his success as a Seminole. Barring something unforeseen or the Cook being spooked by what could be a crowded and talented FSU depth chart, this one should last. Cook is likely to take visits. We could even see a de-commit to re-commit situation, but it seems rather obvious that he will land at FSU on Signing Day.
Likelihood to stick: 89 percent
Breakdown: One of the earliest commitments on this list, Gatewood has been pledged to the Tigers since December 2015. The relationships in place are strong. And while the four-star quarterback has been spotted on Florida State’s campus a handful of times since, it’s unclear how interest FSU is in attempting to flip him. Gatewood is happy with Auburn and this will only become interesting if Florida State dials up the heat down the road.
Likelihood to stick: 85 percent
Breakdown: Frierson’s proximity to campus and enthusiasm about Miami’s possible return to prominence is going to make this a tough pledge to break. He’ll take visits, sure, but it seems hard to imagine a scenario in which Frierson spurs his hometown school.
Likelihood to stick: 83 percent
Breakdown: Xavier Williams is on record saying he pulled the trigger on an early commitment in an effort to lock up a spot quickly, which can be reassuring or troubling depending on how one chooses to view it. That said, Alabama has a track record with Florida-based receivers and they don’t lose their commitments often.
Likelihood to stick: 82 percent
Breakdown: Lingard wants to attend Miami. The school’s relative proximity to his family home is a sell. So is the opportunity for playing time. This goes wrong if Miami has another average to below-average season in 2018. There will always be competition for a five-star prospect down the stretch and if Lingard takes official visits, Miami will have a fight on its hands.
Likelihood to stick: 78 percent
Breakdown: Snead’s high school are abundantly confident that he will sign with Ohio State. The hyper-early nature of his commitment and the distance are cause for pause just because of the nature of recruiting, but this seems as safe as an early commitment to a school located a thousand miles away can be.
Likelihood to stick: 78 percent
Breakdown: Bolden grew up a Florida fan but committed to Florida State last summer based on his opinion on how he fit the system. Bolden plans to be an early enrollee, so if Florida or some other school plans to make a move, it will need to do so this offseason or early in the fall.
Likelihood to stick: 75 percent
Breakdown: The quarterback situation at Miami looks appealing now. And that’s likely a big part of Sitkowski’s commitment. There are two very different ways thing could go wrong, however. If Miami struggles terribly this fall, he could rethink things. The opposite is also true. If one of the Hurricanes’ incoming freshman quarterbacks wins the job and becomes a star, things in Coral Gables are likely to get less appealing to Sitkowski.
Likelihood to stick: 72 percent
Breakdown: Davis is a Miami kid that takes great pride in where he’s from. He was once committed to Oregon State and not so long ago called Oregon his “dream school.” Davis and fellow Miami commit Lorenzo Lingard give Miami two Rivals100 running backs in the 2018 class. That’s a blessing, sure, but it can also be a curse if one of said backs decides he wants less built-in competition.
Likelihood to stick: 69 percent
Breakdown: Shivers is also interesting in running track in college, which adds another moving part to his recruitment. His limited size and elite speed make him a better fit for certain systems than he is for others. There are a number of things that could go wrong between Shivers and Auburn on both ends, so while he seems steadfast in his commitment, he also intends to take visits in the year ahead.
Likelihood to stick: 62 percent
Breakdown: One of the cornerstones of Miami’s impressive class, Jobe seems relatively solid. The fact that his former high school classmate Trajan Bandy signed with Miami last month also helps. There will be pressure from major programs, however, but Jobe is likely to stick unless the class around him begins to crumble. Jobe is going to be pulled in a number of directions down the stretch and may have a listen to an out-of-state school or two.
Likelihood to stick: 61 percent
Breakdown: Wilson is still in the process of becoming a national recruit, so his commitment seems a bit hasty from that standpoint. A month ago, the Rivals250 defensive back was a total unknown. Such commitments often carry red flags, but this may stick if Florida takes a step forward on the field this fall. You get the sense that Wilson wants to be a Gator unless he’s provided with a few reasons to doubt that choice. Likelihood to stick: 60 percent
Breakdown: Watkins is already on commitment No. 3. He was previously pledged to both LSU and Florida State. He likes the way he fits the Texas offense, but given his commit frequency and the fact that Austin is a long way from his Florida-based home, this commitment needs to be viewed with a least a touch of skepticism. The chances of this going the distance is a coin flip.
Likelihood to stick: 50 percent
Breakdown: This was an early commit that took place before Troutman saw his offer list explode. He’s still waiting for more offers, but things could get dicey this spring as new schools begin to court the safety. Troutman plays at one of America’s very best high school programs, so he won’t be short on exposure. Holding on here may become a tall task.
Likelihood to stick: 48 percent
Breakdown: The most recent commitment on this list, Hightower pledged to Miami on Wednesday night. The Rivals250 receiver, who attends boarding school at Florida’s IMG Academy, has long said he intends to stay in the Southeast for college. Still, the fact that he’s originally from California remains. USC, UCLA and other West Coast schools will likely peruse Hightower until Signing Day. Distance from home isn’t a deal breaker in this case, but it certainly provides a sizable hurdle.
Likelihood to stick: 48 percent
Breakdown: Another extremely early commitment, Joseph has been committed to LSU since last June. He picked up an offer at the Tigers’ prospect camp and committed on the spot. Now that his offer list is expanding, there’s reason to think LSU has a fight on its hands. How the Tigers new coaching staff preforms in the year ahead will help dictate if this one sticks. Expect pressure from the in-state schools here.
Likelihood to stick: 47 percent