Five-Star Geography: Breaking down 5 trends at WR
There have been plenty of five-star wide receivers in Rivals history dating back to 2002. Today, we ask Rivals.com National Recruiting Director Mike Farrell five questions about the position after analyzing some surprising numbers and breaking down the states:
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1. Is it a myth LSU doesn't develop receivers because it runs the ball too much?
Overview: There seems to be a narrative that LSU is a graveyard for elite receivers, especially since the Tigers have focused on running the ball so much, but a closer look at in-state five-stars who played in Baton Rouge proves that’s not the case. There have been six five-star receivers from the state of Louisiana and three of them - Jarvis Landry, Malachi Dupre and Rueben Randle - all had impressive stats at LSU. Randle had 97 catches for 1,634 yards and 13 touchdowns, Dupre finished with 98 receptions for 1,609 yards and 14 scores and Landry led the way with 137 catches for 1,809 yards and 15 TDs. Terrace Marshall Jr. should have a big sophomore season. Tyron Johnson transferred out after one season and Speedy Noil was the sixth in-state five-star.
Farrell’s take: It’s more about the lack of quarterback development. That's what prevents LSU from opening up the offense..Yes, they run the ball a lot and play power football, but that doesn’t mean they can’t produce great wide receivers as we’ve seen with Odell Beckham Jr. (four-star) and Landry. And the narrative that schools use against them, that they just run the ball and don’t develop quarterbacks, hasn’t hurt wide receiver recruiting. Rakim Jarrett, a five-star in the 2020 class, is already an LSU commitment mainly because of the development of Beckham Jr. and Landry.
2. What do you make of Texas never landing a five-star in-state WR?
Overview: Seven five-star receivers have come out of the state of Texas in Rivals history and not one of them has gone to play for the Longhorns. Oklahoma has done the best job landing elite receivers from Texas and could have two future stars in Theo Wease and Trejan Bridges. Trey Metoyer also went to OU. Lance Leggett went to Miami, Terrance Toliver picked LSU and Jaylen Waddle had a big freshman season last year at Alabama. The Longhorns have a shot to flip five-star Demond Demas this recruiting cycle, but it certainly looks like he’s all set with his commitment to Texas A&M.
Farrell’s take: This is very surprising and speaks volumes at least recently about the struggle recruiting skill position players under Charlie Strong and at the end of the Mack Brown era. They’ve had some good receivers and produced some players, but for guys like Wease and Bridges to get out of state (and Waddle, although A&M was his in-state favorite) even with Tom Herman at coach is not a great trend. If you told me that Texas hadn’t signed a five star wide receiver from in state in Rivals.com history I would have had to double check that. It’s shocking.
3. Are you surprised there were only three from Georgia and none played for the Bulldogs?
Overview: There is a much smaller sample size in the state of Georgia with only three five-stars in Rivals history, but the Bulldogs have also had no success keeping elite receivers home. And other than Jadon Haselwood, who had been committed to Georgia but ended up picking Oklahoma late in the recruiting process, it’s been many years for a five-star receiver to come out of the state. In the 2010 class, Da’Rick Rogers chose Tennessee and Markeith Ambles picked USC. Rogers had a big sophomore year with the Volunteers but then transferred to Tennessee Tech after a violation of team rules.
Farrell’s take: Rogers and Ambles both had off field issues, but Haselwood appears to be a big loss for Georgia. However, I’m more surprised that the state has only produced three five-stars at the position. There is so much skill talent in Georgia that I would have thought there were more over the years. That will change in the years to come and Georgia will keep some of them home the way they are recruiting.
4. Is Alabama the most underrated state for five-star WRs?
Overview: Julio Jones is one of the best receivers in the NFL after a phenomenal career at Alabama and Justyn Ross had a tremendous freshman campaign at Clemson, where he finished with 46 catches for 1,000 yards and nine touchdowns last season as the Tigers rolled to the national championship. The only other five-star receiver from the state is Georgia freshman George Pickens, a 6-foot-3, 190-pound outside threat who could have a huge career in Athens. Elite receivers have come from the state of Alabama, but there haven’t been many over the years.
Farrell’s take: The sample size is too small, although Jones and Ross are an amazing 1-2 punch. However, for any state to be the most underrated for five-stars, it needs to have produced at least five or six at the position over the years and the state of Alabama has not done that.
5. Why have Florida 5-star WRs seen the most success when they've left the state?
Overview: Part of the challenge schools face in the state of Florida is that so many elite national programs like Alabama and Clemson are regularly dipping in there for top talent and that has been the case at wide receiver. Another issue is that many of those players leaving have excelled while many that stayed at in-state schools have not done as much.
Calvin Ridley and now Jerry Jeudy have excelled at Alabama. Sammy Watkins and to an extent Deon Cain have thrived at Clemson. Nelson Agholor had a big career at USC and was a first-round selection. But many that especially went to Florida State, including Fred Rouse, George Campbell, Ermon Lane and others didn’t pan out and that could be a concern for future five-star receivers from the state.
Farrell’s take: There’s something to it, although we have new coaches in place at Miami, Florida and Florida State so this could easily change. And let’s not forget how many five stars Miami reeled in before Rivals.com came into existence. But it is odd that so many have left the state and had such great careers while some others have stayed and struggled.