Fact or Fiction: USC can keep Malachi Nelson home
National recruiting director Adam Gorney and analyst Josh Helmholdt along with Andrew Bone from BamaInsider.com and Ryan Young of TrojanSports.com tackle three topics in recruiting and determine whether they believe the statements or not.
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1. Alabama will be tough to beat for 2023 No. 1 Lebbeus Overton.
Gorney’s take: FICTION. Alabama has a very good shot at landing Lebbeus Overton as the Crimson Tide have made him a top priority and Nick Saban rarely loses out on those prospects. By no means would I be surprised if Overton picks Alabama. But I also get the feeling that he’s very intrigued by Clemson, there are connections to Oklahoma and I don’t think Georgia or some others are out of this yet anyway. Alabama could have a slight edge right now but I wouldn’t say the Crimson Tide are too far ahead of Clemson right now. Visits are going to be really important so this could still go many ways.
Bone’s take: FACT. Overton is one of the Tide’s top early targets in the 2023 class. He also has plenty of familiarity with the Alabama program as his father was an associate athletic director for the Crimson Tide between 2009 and 2015. Overton also returned to Tuscaloosa for two games this past season. Alabama is considered one of the top overall schools in the hunt for the nation’s top player. There is a long way to go in his recruitment, but the comfort level at Alabama is extremely high. Alabama will have a great chance to land his future signature.
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2. USC has a real shot at keeping Malachi Nelson home.
Gorney’s take: FACT. If Malachi Nelson was picking today then I would say he’s almost a lock to Oklahoma because he has an excellent relationship with Lincoln Riley and that staff, and the offense is nearly a perfect fit for him. But Nelson won’t be signing for years and a whole lot changes in the college football landscape during that time. Oklahoma is probably at the top but USC is the home program and the Trojans are coming after him hard as well. Clemson and others are up there as well so at this point while I don’t think USC leads, I do think the Trojans have a real shot to keep him especially if Lincoln Riley tries his hand at the NFL, which I’m not convinced will happen.
Young’s take: FACT. It's too early to identify a favorite in Nelson's recruitment, but does USC have a legitimate shot at landing Nelson? Absolutely. USC established its interest early on and will recruit him as a top priority, and at least to this point his comments about the Trojans have been encouraging. A lot may have to do with how they build on their 2021 recruiting momentum in this 2022 class. If they stack back-to-back elite recruiting hauls together, the pull for top local prospects to stay home will only grow stronger. The most important variable, however, might be how the QB succession timeline projects. There's a long way to go before Nelson has to make a final sign-on-the-dotted-line decision, and USC's future QB picture is intriguing but uncertain assuming Kedon Slovis moves on to the NFL after this 2021 season. Jaxson Dart and Miller Moss will be two years ahead of Nelson and will be competing to be Slovis' successor. If one of them emerge and looks like the next future star at the position for USC in 2022, maybe that gives Nelson some pause. On the contrary, if neither Dart, Moss nor 2022 commit Devin Brown is able to commandingly assert himself right away in 2022, or Slovis returns delaying any succession at the position, Nelson may see a wide-open opportunity to come in and compete right away for the job. So, there's a long way to go here, but yes, there's a path for USC to reel in the top 2023 QB.
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3. Alex Styles will end up following his brother to Notre Dame.
Gorney’s take: FICTION. Notre Dame is recruiting Alex Styles very much but when I last talked to him he said this will be his own journey, he’s going to build relationships with coaches at many schools and then look at the situation and the culture and find the best fit for him. That very well could end up being Notre Dame, or it could be Ohio State, or it could be elsewhere. It’s just too early to know. But by no means did I get the impression that just because his older brother is playing for the Irish that Styles will follow him to South Bend without doing his own research first.
Helmholdt’s take: FICTION. There are a couple strong family ties in Styles' recruitment. While his older brother, Lorenzo Styles Jr., signed with Notre Dame in the 2021 class, his father, Lorenzo Styles Sr., was a standout linebacker for Ohio State. The Buckeyes were the first school to offer Styles, and they are the hometown team. I actually like their chances a little more than Notre Dame's at this stage, but could also see Sonny paving his own path and picking a school that is neither Ohio State nor Notre Dame.