Fact or Fiction: Tua will fall on Thursday night
National recruiting director Mike Farrell and national recruiting analyst Adam Gorney tackle three topics daily and determine whether they believe the statements or not.
MORE: Comparing draft's top CBs to today's HS prospects
CLASS OF 2021 RANKINGS: Rivals250 | Position | Team | State
CLASS OF 2022: Top 100
1. Jeff Okudah is the best player from Texas in the last four drafts.
Farrell’s take: FACT. Think about this. It’s not easy. Okudah, who is expected to go in the top four of the NFL Draft Thursday, reminds me of Stephone Gilmore and could be that elite big corner the NFL covets. And his skills are off the charts.
But the last three No 1 picks have all hailed from Texas — Kyler Murray, Baker Mayfield and Myles Garrett — so this might not be the popular opinion. Quarterbacks are more important than anyone and Garrett could make a case for the most talented of the group, but to me Okudah is that much more special than any of them.
Gorney’s take: FICTION. Okudah is a fantastic player and definitely the No. 1 defensive back in this draft, but I have to side with Garrett here because he was just unstoppable in high school, then he dominated in the SEC and he’s been great in the NFL as well (save for the incident with Mason Rudolph).
Garrett should have unquestionably been the No. 1 prospect in the 2014 class and it wasn’t even that close. In just as many college games as Chase Young, Garrett had 0.5 more sacks and 43 more tackles. He was awesome. No knock on Okudah, but Garrett all the way.
2. Arik Gilbert is the next Calvin Johnson.
Farrell’s take: FICTION. It’s nice to think that Scott Linehan can turn Gilbert into the best receiver he ever worked with at the NFL level — Calvin 'Megatron' Johnson — but is it feasible? Ed Orgeron mentioned on Tuesday on ESPN’s Off The Bench radio show that Gilbert might play outside as a receiver and he certainly has the talent to do so. But the five-star was ranked as a tight end for a reason last year and I can see him having a dominant career but as a flex option and not as a Calvin Johnson-type.
Gorney’s take: FACT. I went into the Rivals Five-Star Challenge last summer thinking that fellow five-star Darnell Washington might be the best tight end nationally but Gilbert convinced me otherwise. He’s so big but so fluid and athletic, it’s easy to see him on the outside being a mismatch problem for defensive backs. He doesn’t have to play with his hand down or just be a flex guy. Gilbert can stretch the field with his speed, he has great hands and he’s a talented playmaker. Three or four years from now, we might regret not ranking Gilbert even higher than ninth nationally in the 2020 class.
3. Tua Tagovailoa will fall on Thursday night.
Farrell’s take: FICTION. There are rumors the Alabama QB will slide in the draft similar to Aaron Rodgers years and years ago, but I just don’t see it. The NFL is so quarterback hungry that Tua won’t fall beyond No 6 and the LA Chargers and might not get past the Dolphins at No 5. Yes, his health is a question mark, but those two teams can’t afford to pass on him. Don’t believe the slide rumors.
Gorney’s take: FICTION. The latest rumors are that the Miami Dolphins with the fifth pick are starting to favor Justin Herbert over Tagovailoa, but I can’t see the Alabama quarterback falling past the Los Angeles Chargers with the very next pick. I cannot understand how it’s riskier to pick Tagovailoa than Utah State’s Jordan Love, who threw 20 touchdowns and 17 interceptions this past season. Yes, Tagovailoa has dealt with injuries, but he also excelled at the highest level. He shouldn’t fall lower than six and if he does, it’s a mistake.