Rivals national recruiting analyst Adam Friedman, Conor O'Neill of DevilsIllustrated.com, Richie Schnyderite of HappyValleyInsider.com and Scott Greene of TerrapinSportsReport.com tackle three topics and determine where they believe each statement is FACT or FICTION.
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1. Riley Leonard will enter the transfer portal.
Friedman's take: FACT. This feels like a done deal regardless of who the Blue Devils bring in to replace Mike Elko. Riley Leonard was one of the best quarterbacks in the nation before he was injured on the final play of the Notre Dame game. There are multiple national powerhouse programs looking for a talented and experienced quarterback like Leonard and he'll surely test the waters. If Duke does hire a coach who Leonard likes, I wouldn't completely write off Leonard returning to Durham after entering the portal.
O'Neill's take: FACT. It seemed like this might happen even without Mike Elko leaving for Texas A&M. Duke had three quarterbacks start and win games this season – Leonard, Henry Belin IV (against NC State) and Grayson Loftis (Wake Forest and Pitt). The likelihood that all three would be back next season seemed slim. And if you're looking at which one would be most appealing to a program willing to throw around seven-figure NIL deals, that's clearly the one who has generated NFL buzz. It feels like Duke's chances to retain Leonard rest with whether it holds on to Kevin Johns, either with a promotion to head coach or if he stays aboard for the new coach.
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2. James Franklin will be on thin ice if his next offensive coordinator doesn’t work out.
Friedman's take: FICTION. Penn State will welcome its sixth offensive coordinator of the James Franklin era when Mike Yurcich's replacement is announced. The struggles of the Nittany Lions' offense are well-documented and it falls on Franklin to make sure the team is set up for success.
As a CEO-style head coach, Franklin and his team are only as good as the assistant coaches he hires. His record on that front is good, not great. John Donovan, Kirk Ciarrocca and Mike Yurcich sit on the lower end of the spectrum and Joe Moorhead and Ricky Rahne on the higher end. Still, the teams with Moorhead and Rahne running the offense couldn't quite break through.
However, the next offensive coordinator at Penn State will have an advantage that the others didn't: the expanded College Football Playoff.
The 12-team field of the College Football Playoff will take some of the pressure off Franklin because the odds are good they'll make the field without needing to win the Big Ten or beat Michigan or Ohio State.
Making the Playoff, possibly winning a Playoff game, and that contract that doesn't expire until 2031 will ensure Franklin, barring something catastrophic, sticks around in Happy Valley for the foreseeable future.
Schnyderite's take: FACT. Don't get me wrong, Franklin has been a great coach for Penn State in his now 10 seasons with the program, winning 10 or more games in five of them and even winning the gauntlet that is the Big Ten Conference once as well. However fans, alumni and even some admin have been tired of the constant losing to the conference's best in Michigan and Ohio State as he boasts a record of 4-16 against those two specifically.
Now a lot of those losses are because of the offense or lack thereof in those games and in several other games over his tenure, as he hasn't been able to find much consistency at offensive coordinator.
Since taking over in 2014, he's had six different offensive coordinators and you might be able to say seven if you count the dual interim coordinator tags given to Ja'Juan Seider and Ty Howle following the firing of Mike Yurcich. With that being said, it's very imperative that Franklin gets this OC hire right. The Nittany Lions are running out of chances to make it to the national championship as their highly-rated quarterback in Drew Allar enters his third year and the same goes for one of the nation's best running back duos of Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen.
Not to mention, defensive coordinator Manny Diaz is going to get another shot at a Power Five head coaching job sooner rather than later so Franklin needs to make the right hire here if he wants to stick around in Happy Valley.
Plus on top of it all, there's a new athletic director in town in Pat Kraft and as we all know, new athletic directors won't be hesitant to get a guy of their own in there if things aren't going to plan.
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3. Maryland will sign at least one defensive line prospect from the high school ranks.
Friedman's take: FACT. Mike Locksley and his staff have exactly zero defensive linemen in their 2024 recruiting class right now. A Big Ten team with zero defensive line commits. That's just impossible. It's a priority position for any team but especially one in the big, tough Big Ten.
Maryland's lack of defensive line reinforcements isn't for lack of trying but they still have a priority target in Rivals250 defensive end Ernest Willor. The Terps are competing against Wisconsin and Ohio State for his commitment but it does seem like there is something pulling the Maryland native toward his hometown school.
Give Locksley the benefit of the doubt here. He's an excellent recruiter and has pulled off more than his fair share of signing day surprises in the past.
Greene's take: FACT. The Terps are set to officially host local Rivals100 DL Ernest Willor later this winter and have an excellent shot of landing him if all goes well.
And while technically not a defensive lineman, the Terps are well positioned to flip Pitt commit Jeremiah Marcelin, an edge rusher out of Miami who has been a regular visitor throughout the season.
And finally, Locksley always seems to have a trick or two up his sleeve on National Signing Day. Perhaps this year he shocks everyone and flips someone such as Virginia Tech commit Emmett Laws out of DeMatha.
