Rivals national recruiting analyst Greg Smith is joined by rankings director and national transfer portal analyst Adam Friedman, Scott Reed of DuckSportsAuthority.com and Kenny Van Doren of MizzouToday.com to tackle three topics and determine whether they believe each statement is FACT or FICTION.
MORE FACT OR FICTION: Florida State's recruiting class will improve this season
CLASS OF 2025 RANKINGS: Rivals250 | Team | Position | State
CLASS OF 2026 RANKINGS: Rivals250 | Team | Position | State
CLASS OF 2027 RANKINGS: Top 100
TRANSFER PORTAL: Full coverage | Player ranking | Team ranking | Transfer search | Transfer Tracker
1. Ohio State is going to go unchallenged for the No. 1 recruiting class this cycle.
Friedman: FICTION. Ohio State has the top-ranked recruiting class in the nation but it definitely doesn't have the recruiting crown locked up. Five-star Na'eem Offord and top-50 prospect Zahir Mathis are just two of the Buckeye commits that are being heavily pursued by other programs. If Ohio State loses them, it will be easier for other teams to catch them. There aren't many uncommitted prospects left in the Rivals250 but Georgia looks like the favorite for five-stars Justus Terry and Elijah Griffin. Adding commitments from the two of them would vault the Bulldogs to No. 2 in the team rankings. There are other players out there who are still mulling over flipping or sticking with their commitments. The only thing that is clear is that the team rankings are still very fluid.
Smith: FACT. This is one of those storylines that we are talking way more about at this point in the season. The Buckeyes took over the No. 1 spot over the summer from Notre Dame after the Irish got off to a hot start in the cycle. And after that coach Ryan Day’s program has not looked back.
Since the class is loaded there are a few players that other schools are pushing hard for. Five-star safety Na’eem Offord and four-star defensive lineman Jarquez Carter are just a couple blue-chips that others want to flip. But even if the Buckeyes suffer a couple losses from the class it’s tough to see anyone catching them this cycle.
We also can’t rule out the Buckeyes flipping some big-time prospects of their own which would only strengthen their class.
2. Oregon will make a statement this weekend that it’s a national championship contender.
Reed: FACT. There is an old saying that defense wins championships. While I think it is not wholly true, national championship level teams still need a defense that can make critical stops. Derrick Harmon, Jordan Burch, Jamaree Caldwell and the combination of Matayo Uiagalelei/Teitum Tuioti have shown plenty of evidence that the front line for the Ducks is very good.
Now add in one of the better defensive backfields in the Big Ten and the Ducks have an elite defense that will keep them in games. I don’t hold them giving up a big game to Ashton Jeanty early against them – Jeanty is possibly the best running back in the nation. The Ducks have shown the ability to play elite defense. Offensively, if they protect the ball a little bit better, all the pieces are there to compete at the national championship level. I expect the defense to show why there was so much preseason hype.
When it comes to Oregon making a statement that it is a true national title contender, it is fact based on the defense so far this season. I don’t think a win matters if the game is close, and the Ducks show that they can compete with a team as loaded as Ohio State.
Smith: FACT. I do not expect Oregon to win this game which is more of a testament to Ohio State. The Buckeyes are the best team in the country so how can Oregon still show it is championship contenders even in a loss? It’s by looking like it belongs on the field with Ohio State.
The Ducks’ defense is for real and should do enough to keep this one close. The offense has been a work in progress all season and could hurt them down the road if it doesn’t get into gear. But in today’s expanded College Football Playoff era, a loss to the Buckeyes right now doesn’t doom the Ducks.
We also have the real possibility of this just being a preview of the Big Ten Championship game in Indianapolis.
MORE OREGON-OSU: Five-stars are flocking to both programs
3. Missouri should still feel good about its CFB Playoff chances.
Van Doren: FICTION. Even with high aspirations of playing in the College Football Playoff and extending a promising 2023 season into Year 5 under Eli Drinkwitz, Missouri hasn’t shown it’s comparable to last year’s team. The Tigers’ identity reaped rewards of being seen as underdogs, with the goal of fueling breakout performances, but this season, it’s been the total opposite. They’ve shot themselves in the foot on multiple occasions with penalties, bulletin board material and lack of energy and leadership through five games, six weeks.
Missouri does have the benefit of the doubt of a weaker schedule the rest of the way, outside of a road game at Alabama, but a blowout loss to Texas A&M in that fashion is a stain on the résumé, no matter how strong the Aggies are to finish the season. The Tigers’ most recent game might be the wake-up call the program needed, but they have yet to show the life that resulted in a career-best year for Drinkwitz in 2023.
Smith: FICTION. Missouri really shouldn’t have felt good about making the playoffs when the season started. It’s a much different beast to be a team that others get up to play for versus being the scrappy underdog each week. Once the season started it appeared that the team wasn’t handling its new role well.
The Tigers should bounce back and win big this week. But then the stretch of Auburn, Alabama (road), Oklahoma, South Carolina (road) is a tricky one to navigate. Missouri is capable of winning each game. But also capable of losing each. This has the makings of a down year for the Tigers after being a bright spot in 2023.
