Rivals national recruiting analyst Clint Cosgrove along with Jon McNamara of BadgerBlitz.com, Zack Carpenter of InsideNebraska.com and Doug Bucshon of OrangeAndBlueNews.com tackle three topics and determine whether they believe each statement is FACT or FICTION.
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1. Wisconsin will retain all of its commitments after the coaching change.
Cosgrove's take: FICTION. I do believe Wisconsin could potentially retain its entire class as long as Jim Leonhard has the interim tag taken off of his title and is named the full-time head coach. But, there is bound to be at least one recruit who chooses to head elsewhere when there is a head coaching change and I don't see Wisconsin as being immune to that happening. I have not talked to every one of the current Badger commits, but those who I have had the opportunity to visit with seem extremely solid with their commitment as long as Leonhard is still in the fold. Should the Badgers choose to hire a coach from the outside, all bets are off here, and there could be mass defections. In this scenario, you also have to consider the possibility of new leadership opting to choose different players and encouraging some of the current commits to head elsewhere.
McNamara's take: FICTION. I’m leaning on the law averages here, as there are typically decommitments in every class, even without a head coaching change. For Wisconsin, I think the staff will hang onto a majority of the current 13 scholarship commitments, largely because I expect current interim coach Jim Leonhard will have that tag removed this winter. And while I assume Leonhard will keep his defensive staff largely intact as the permanent head coach, he could shake things up on offense. With that, if running backs coach Al Johnson isn’t part of the long-term plan, Jaquez Keyes could head elsewhere, and the four-star back would have plenty of options. Again, the early responses have been positive and the bulk of this group should be good come National Signing Day in December, but I’ve been doing this long enough to expect late movement in every cycle, especially in a year with transition at the top of the program.
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2. Nebraska interim head coach Mickey Joseph can earn the full-time job with a win over Purdue this weekend.
Cosgrove's take: FACT. Nebraska would be foolish to not give Joseph at least one full season at the helm if the Cornhuskers were to beat the Boilermakers this upcoming weekend. Nebraska football has had one major issue in particular over the past few years and that is the ability to finish games. Although the sample size is small, Joseph has proven that he is more than capable of getting his squad to buy in and finish in the fourth quarter. I like the direction Nebraska is trending, and as long as it can keep this momentum, a wholesale change could set the program back even further if it chooses to look outside of the program when the Huskers have a coach capable of succeeding in house. A win over Purdue would also mark the first time the Huskers have won three straight Big Ten games since 2016 and that must be taken in consideration when AD Trev Alberts decides which direction he would like to go.
Carpenter's take: FICTION. Mickey Joseph is absolutely, 100 percent a real candidate to earn the Huskers job. That statement was as true when I wrote it hours after Nebraska got beat down by Oklahoma as it is right now. This program has turned around 180 degrees with Joseph at the helm, and I could go off on a long soliloquy about all of the differences. But even a 4-3 record, three straight wins and at least a share of the Big Ten West lead after a hypothetical win over Purdue would not be enough to lock Joseph into the job. And he knows it, saying a couple weeks ago that, “Nebraska deserves to have a national coaching search.” And it will continue to conduct one. This search will go the distance well into November.
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3. Illinois will flip at least one of the state's current top 15 prospects who are committed elsewhere.
Cosgrove's take: FACT. This is a hard one as I go back and forth on how far Illinois has come with its in-state recruiting after the previous regime all but alienated in-state recruits toward the end. That being said, I do think the Illini have made enough progress on the field that in-state recruits will have a difficult time passing up an opportunity to play for Bret Bielema in Champaign moving forward. Illinois' accomplishments this season are nothing short of amazing and it is way ahead of schedule with this rebuild. Couple that with coaching changes and other variables from teams that currently have a top-15 Illinois prospect committed and you have the recipe for at least one flip.
This is purely speculation on my part but the two in-state recruits who come to mind as potential flips for Illinois are Malik Elzy and Roderick Pierce. Both seem solid in their commitments, but I know the Illinois staff is not going to give up, and both saw Illinois as a viable option at one point in their recruitment.
Bucson's take: FACT. Success on the field should have a positive impact on recruiting for the Fighting Illini if they keep the momentum going in the second half of the season. Bret Bielema missed on some top targets this summer largely because he hadn’t yet proven he can win at Illinois. The coaching situation at Wisconsin could change things for defensive linemen Roderick Pierce and Jamel Howard, both Illinois natives. So far, they are sticking with the Badgers, but that could change if Jim Leonhard isn’t hired as the permanent head coach.
The Illini were major players for wide receiver Malik Elzy right up to his decision to commit to Cincinnati. Word on the street is that St. Louis wide receiver Frederick Moore, a Michigan commit, was in Champaign for the game vs. Iowa on Saturday night. Bielema and his staff will continue to push hard for regional prospects that are committed elsewhere, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they flip at least one of them before the early signing period in December.
