Rivals national recruiting analyst Greg Smith is joined by Trevor McCure of TheMaizeAndBlueReview.com, Doug Bucshon of OrangeAndBlueNews.com and Dub Ellison of BoilerUpload.com to tackle three topics and determine whether they believe each statement is FACT or FICTION.
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1. Michigan is now a contender for the Big Ten championship.
McCue: FICTION. Michigan gave its season a spark Saturday with a win over USC, but this team still has some big question marks on offense and some even bigger opponents left to play. Alex Orji will be the starter moving forward and probably should have been from the start. The Michigan coaching staff will have to add wrinkles and looks to its offensive scheme in the middle of Big Ten play. The Wolverines can run the ball, but can they get enough out of the passing game to keep opposing defenses honest?
Michigan's defense is starting to look like the elite unit we expected. Like the offense, it is making mistakes, but those are coachable, not foundational issues.
The Wolverines schedule still includes road trips to Washington, a better-than-expected Illinois, an improved Indiana, and of course Columbus. If Michigan is 7-1 heading to its matchup with Oregon, I'll move them to contender status.
Smith: FICTION. Michigan got a real shot in the arm after beating USC at home. That win helped calm things in Ann Arbor especially since it won the game in a very old-school way. However, the Wolverines still aren’t contenders in the Big Ten yet for me. There are just so many question marks around if the offense can consistently move the ball as they face better defenses. At some point they’ll have to throw the ball to win and that seems like a challenge.
The Michigan defense is every bit as good as we expected but it will wear down eventually under the pressure of not scoring any points if this continues. The Wolverines have a chance to prove they are contenders since there is a lot of season left. I just don’t see it happening.
2. Illinois’ hot start will give it an in-state recruiting boost.
Bucshon: FACT. The Illini's 4-0 start, including two wins over ranked opponents, should grab the attention of top in-state recruiting targets who may have been on the fence about considering the home-state program. Though the buzz could be short term if Illinois stumbles, it does allow Bret Bielema and his staff to lock in game-day visits with recruits who are eager to see up close and personal what the newfound success is all about.
The Illini have already had top-10 2026 in-state targets Mack Sutter, JC Anderson and McHale Blade on campus for games this fall. That list will grow if they keep winning and prospects see an opportunity to jump on board with an emerging program in their own backyard.
Smith: FICTION. The Illini have become one of the best early season stories in the Big Ten thanks to a 4-0 start. The team currently sits dead last in the Big Ten in the Rivals team recruiting rankings at this point. But the program isn’t known for putting together big-time classes; instead finding talent and developing it. That can be a winning formula and one that Illinois will have to stick with.
It’s still hard for me to see the elite talent in the state turning down options such as Oregon, LSU, Notre Dame and other bluebloods for Illinois.
3. Purdue should be concerned about keeping its 2025 recruiting class intact.
Ellison: FICTION. Purdue has no doubt had a brutal start to the 2024 campaign, suffering the worst loss in program history to Notre Dame, before another disappointing defeat at the hands of Oregon State.
While it’s been a struggle, Purdue’s 2025 recruiting class, and several top targets for that matter, are of the belief that Ryan Walters and company will get the program turned around moving forward.
Only one 2025 commit could be on flip watch at the moment, with Ta’Khyian Whitset flirting with the idea of visiting NC State. That was a possibility before the current two-game skid, however.
With such a young staff that is still learning and success on the recruiting trail last cycle, it is a full rebuild in West Lafayette. There are no secrets about that. Should the Boilermakers struggle into 2025, there is a discussion to be had at that point.
Could things change is Purdue finishes 1-11? Sure. But for now, I believe Purdue is confident in its ability to keep the 2025 class intact as presently constructed.
Smith: FACT. This is trending to be a very rough season for coach Ryan Walters and Purdue. There might be one more win left on the schedule for the program and if things work out that way other teams will be circling the team’s recruits. There are some good players on the commit list such as four-stars Grant Beerman and Zyntreacs Otey that will certainly get looks from other teams. Wide receiver Lebron Hill is exactly the type of under-the-radar prospect that the Boilermakers need but holding onto his commitment could prove difficult too.
The team needs to fix things and fast on the field before this becomes a big problem.
