Rivals national recruiting analyst John Garcia Jr. is joined by Jason Higdon of 1stAndTenFlorida.com, Marcus Benjamin of CanesCounty.com and Charles Fishbein of TheOsceola.com to tackle three topics and determine whether they believe each statement is FACT or FICTION.
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1. Wide receiver Vernell Brown III will be the most challenging Florida commitment for others to flip.
Higdon: FICTION. On July 21, wide receiver Vernell Brown announced his intentions to join the Gator Nation and follow in his father's footsteps. On the surface, it would make sense that he would be the most difficult to flip with his family's relationships and ties to the University of Florida. However, recruiting is never as easy as it would appear. I believe Brown is locked in with the Gators today, but if there is a coaching search, all bets are off, so I am going with fiction. I believe the title of most difficult to flip from the Florida Gators commitment list belongs to another.
Garcia: FACT. Brown is a legacy win for Florida and, despite slight hesitation in the spring due to potential instability, the Gators won out by quite a wide margin in the summer. Rivals are working to challenge said pledge, but there hasn't been much chatter of movement with his commitment status. No visits elsewhere have taken place and plans of any aren't yet confirmed. Brown is also a very calculated prospect in his decision-making. It's very intentional, so even if Billy Napier's tenure were to end during the season, we wouldn't suspect he'd be one of the seniors who make a reactionary decision thereafter.
2. Miami will flip multiple prospects from its rivals before the end of the 2025 cycle.
Benjamin: FACT. Miami is well ahead of its rivals, Florida and Florida State, regarding national and recruiting rankings. The Hurricanes rank No 7 in the AP Top 25 after a 4-0 start, with both Florida (2-2) and Florida State (1-3) not receiving a single vote among them. In the recruiting rankings, Miami is seemingly lapping its enemies to the north. For 2025, the Hurricanes currently have the ninth-ranked class, while the Seminoles' class ranks No. 30 and the Gators are sitting at No. 36.
The aesthetically pleasing optics of the rankings and the eye test of what is seen on the field appeal to some committed prospects to both Florida and Florida State. Miami is interested in flipping four-star receivers Josh Moore and Vernell Brown from Florida, and it was once interested in offensive lineman Solomon Thomas of Florida State. Also, the uncertainty of the job security of Gator head coach Billy Napier will play a significant role in whether more players jump ship.
With two wide receivers committed to the Canes' 2025 class, the Miami staff would love to add more talent at the position. A player to watch would also be four-star CJ Wiley, a high school teammate with Miami quarterback commit Luke Nickel. That said, Miami is no stranger to flipping players from its rivals, as the Hurricanes did so late last season with former four-star Gator linebacker commit Aldarius Hayes. It would be no surprise if multiple players from UF and FSU decided that UM is a better landing spot, and no one would blame them.
Garcia: FACT. The gap between Miami and its in-state rivals feels like it widened overnight on the field – and it has been there on the recruiting trail from the moment Mario Cristobal took over. So as both Florida and Florida State struggle on both fronts, Miami will be the immediate beneficiary and potentially a direct one.
Each class has some star power in it, particularly Florida's at the wide receiver position. Each of its three pledges there, Vernell Brown III, Joshua Moore and Naeshaun Montgomery, were on the Hurricanes' board. At least two should still be on there so the push for a flip is already somewhat underway as Moore has taken in two Miami games.
On the Seminole side, look no further than the newest FSU commitment in South Florida native Byron Louis. The Canes were once the favorite in that race, so if they elect to push for another back then the local four-star would almost certainly be on the short list. Offensive lineman Solomon Thomas, wideout CJ Wiley and defensive linemen Jeramiah McCloud are worth keeping an eye on, too.
3. Rivals250 RB Byron Louis' commitment to Florida State will help the class bounce back.
Fishbein: FACT. Byron Louis is one of the best backs in Florida. He is a difference maker at the running back position. He can beat you as a runner or as a receiver out of the backfield. He has good vision. You will see him wait patiently behind his offensive line. Louis' commitment should be the start of a good run in recruiting for Florida State.
Garcia: FICTION. While Louis is very well-known and the latest in a long line of American Heritage stars to play at Florida State, this commitment was an isolated recruiting win for the Seminoles. Most seniors have already come off the board, so any big additions for the program moving forward would have to be in the flip game – something that could be more of a subtraction than an addition for the program as the season rolls on. If something were to happen in Gainesville, maybe it creates some extra momentum during the season for Mike Norvell's class.
