Fact or Fiction: Loss to Iowa State sealed Tom Herman's fate
National recruiting director Mike Farrell and national recruiting analyst Adam Gorney tackle three topics daily and determine whether they believe the statements or not.
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1. The loss to Iowa State sealed Tom Herman's fate at Texas.
Farrell’s take: FACT. I have to think Texas will move on from Herman with another season headed down the toilet. A 21-13 record in the Big 12 is not a pretty number when you consider the amazing advantages that Texas has over the conference in recruiting, funding and other areas.
He had one 10-win season for the Longhorns but other than that things have just not worked out. And it’s surprising to me because I thought Herman was the perfect fit. But from recruiting to coaching to player development, it’s been bad.
Gorney’s take: FACT. Texas will almost definitely move on from Herman and it will be the right move because what kind of traction has he really gotten in recruiting, in developing those players and on the field? Athletics director Chris Del Conte will enrage a lot of big-money backers if Herman stays but again - just like with Michigan and other programs - we need to weigh reality with actual outcomes with a fan base that oftentimes lives in the past.
In the last decade, Texas has one 10-win season. Northwestern has three. TCU has five, including an undefeated season. Oklahoma has nine double-digit win seasons over the last 10 years.
The fans, the program, the school, heck, the state, yearns for the miraculous Mack Brown years when Texas was flying high and was one of the top programs in the country. But other than that decade - and we now know that might have more to do with Brown than anything else based how well he has North Carolina playing - this has not been a program always in the national title hunt. Yeah, Herman should go, especially if Texas can somehow convince Urban Meyer to take over, but let’s also have some semblance of realistic expectations in Austin.
2. Vanderbilt can win the SEC East with the right coach.
Farrell’s take: FICTION. James Franklin was the right coach and won 9 games at Vanderbilt twice and went 16-4 in his final 20 games in Nashville. That’s amazing. And the highest he finished in the SEC East was 4th. I’m sorry, but with the lack of facilities, athletic support, academic restrictions and other disadvantages other schools don’t have in the division, its ceiling is third at best. They would be a much better fit in the ACC.
Gorney’s take: FICTION. Win it? No way. But the Commodores should not expect to go winless or 3-9 either as has been the case under Derek Mason the last two seasons. Northwestern plays in a tough conference - not SEC tough, but still challenging - and the Wildcats have three 10-win seasons since 2012 in a far more challenging recruiting territory.
Not in my lifetime will we see Vanderbilt competing with Florida and Georgia every year for the SEC East, but with the right coach and the right recruiting strategy, Vanderbilt can regularly get to bowl games. After all, the Commodores have beaten Tennessee three of the last four times they’ve played.
3. Xavier Worthy will flip from Michigan to Alabama.
Farrell’s take: FICTION. I’m going to be the rare person who says the talented WR from California sticks with Michigan despite a visit to Alabama this weekend. All signs would point to a flip after watching the Alabama offense dominate and seeing how bad Michigan has been on offense, but he has a strong relationship with fellow California WR Cristian Dixon and I’m just taking a shot in the dark that he will stick despite the Jim Harbaugh issues and rumors.
Gorney’s take: FACT. At this point, this is a complete guess because Worthy isn’t talking but sometimes that’s also a sign. The high four-star receiver with dynamic speed took a late visit to Alabama over the weekend and saw the Crimson Tide’s phenomenal offense in person. That could be convincing. Alabama’s receivers go to the NFL every year. That could be convincing. The Crimson Tide could win another national title this year. That could be convincing.
There are still many, many things Worthy likes about Michigan both on and off the field and that’s why the Wolverines could still keep him, but I’ve seen these situations play out before and my guess is a flip to Alabama is coming.